Kevin was involved in some internet/gaming startups
Area/Code (exited > Zynga New York) Starling.
which mix virtual and reality
I think this talk was seeded by a lucky seating assignment on an airplane, next to a Hungarian physicist who had worked on detecting steath airplanes and now was looking for stealth transactions on Wall Street.
Synopsis of his view:
Stealth works by breaking up the signal into lots of little pieces, like a flock of birds. You break it by scanning for flocks of birds which emit electronic signals.
3000 physiscist working on wall street. Need to hide big trades (i.e. pension fund buys/sells 10% of a company). Done via algorithms. Other algos can then detect these algos.
Algos now high speed. 2-5 milliseconds. To the point where network latency determines profit or loss. Thus companies now put their server farms right next to where the big pipe comes into NY. A fiber optic cable was laid from chicago to NY to reduce latency times.
We are changing the physical infrastructure to serve the algos.
The algos are black boxes.
Strong analogy with the filter bubble, see Eli Pariser
Thursday, July 28, 2011
The role of politicians
Comment the other day that the role of a politician is to deliver his constituents to his funders.
revised: Politicians are not opinion leaders, but middlemen.
revised: Politicians are not opinion leaders, but middlemen.
Eli Pariser "The Filter Bubble" 23rd Jun 2011
Ironic-- this guy is famous only because Google turned his website into THE page which organized community in response to 9/11, yet he things google just doesn't get what is important.
His take:
We see the internet/world via facebook and google. These use personal filters when deciding what to present to us.
Problems: We don't know what is being filtered out.
Facebook has a like button, which is popular and has a strong filter weight. But while you can "like" a photo of a kitten, it is hard to "like" a story of famine, even though you wish to spread awareness of the event.
Primary design criteria for the filter is to keep you clicking, and keep you using the site. Designed to be addictive, not nutritious. Facebook and google are not free, they are sponsored.
People feel good (small dopermegenic burst) when they are told something they already know, or agree with. Everyone likes to be right. The filters use this.
Two people can get vastly different pictures of the world. Example: two searches on "Egypt". One gets news articles about the Arab Spring, the other gets tourist information about the pyramids.
My take:
He is right about everything, but his thoughts are not mature.
You might not "Like" a famine, but you can "like" a call to action to solve the problem.
He discovered the problem when he tried to find facebook friends who he knew saw the world differently than he did, and found them filtered out. Well, he could have just emailed/messaged them, couldn't he? How bad did he want to know what they were thinking?
Use curated websites when you want an overview. Google "popular conservative blogs".
Of course the tools are not universally applicable. Of course the tool alters the way you think about the issue. But it is just a tool, not the one ring.
His take:
We see the internet/world via facebook and google. These use personal filters when deciding what to present to us.
Problems: We don't know what is being filtered out.
Facebook has a like button, which is popular and has a strong filter weight. But while you can "like" a photo of a kitten, it is hard to "like" a story of famine, even though you wish to spread awareness of the event.
Primary design criteria for the filter is to keep you clicking, and keep you using the site. Designed to be addictive, not nutritious. Facebook and google are not free, they are sponsored.
People feel good (small dopermegenic burst) when they are told something they already know, or agree with. Everyone likes to be right. The filters use this.
Two people can get vastly different pictures of the world. Example: two searches on "Egypt". One gets news articles about the Arab Spring, the other gets tourist information about the pyramids.
My take:
He is right about everything, but his thoughts are not mature.
You might not "Like" a famine, but you can "like" a call to action to solve the problem.
He discovered the problem when he tried to find facebook friends who he knew saw the world differently than he did, and found them filtered out. Well, he could have just emailed/messaged them, couldn't he? How bad did he want to know what they were thinking?
Use curated websites when you want an overview. Google "popular conservative blogs".
Of course the tools are not universally applicable. Of course the tool alters the way you think about the issue. But it is just a tool, not the one ring.
DRAFT-- (im)morality of debt
This is an idea I wish to develop more.
Posting an early draft version, full of flaws
The morality of US debt
I did a favor for someone recently, which involved money. They thanked me and said they didn't know how they would ever repay me. I said getting the money back would be enough.
Debt. It is essential to social function, to a functioning society. But even more important than debt is debt forgiveness, redemption. Debt is obligation, debt is bondage, and ultimately, debt is slavery.
Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Tyagi, writing in the Boston Review in 2005, discuss the sorry state of middle America's finances. There seems to be a cry from the right wing and from banks that this is middle America's fault, that if only they weren't so consumer crazy, always buying the latest and best fasion and gadgets, all the while living beyond their means, then they would be in better shape. The cry was turned into a major re-write of bankrupcy laws, laws which were in essence written by the lenders.
But the data does not show that Americans are overspending, in fact they spend less of their income on food/restaurants, clothes, appliances, cars, etc. then they did in the 70's. Instead, they face higher costs, for taxes, health insurance, child care.
http://bostonreview.net/BR30.5/warrentyagi.php
My neice was unemployed for a period of some months. She doesn't have a savings built up because she is young, having just graduated college, and hasn't had time. So she lived off her credit card. Irresponsible? I hardly think so. The bank charged her 24% interest on the credit card loan. How do you repay a debt which has an interest rate of 24%? Who is acting immorally here? In her defense, the debt has been repaid, along with the usurious and exploitative interest charges.
And wait a minute, wasn't it these same prophets of the right who encourage middle America to spend? Who was it who urged us, as our 'patriotic duty', to go shopping after 9-11? Since when did consumption become a patriotic duty?
That question has, in fact, been answered in the great BBC documentary 'The Century of the Self'. This describes how the industrial revolution lead to excess of capacity, threatening the foundations of the industrial society, and, more importantly, the bank balances of its leaders. Something had to be done. Something was done. Advertising convinced us that the route to personal fulfillment was through buying things. This is a message which is continually rammed down our throat, in ever sophistocated means. It is, in fact, a precept. If we measure a country's growth in terms of GNP, then GNP must increase each year, which can only happen if consumption also increases each year. Our economy is built on a model of continually and exponentially growning consumption.
Whenever the right wing gets moralistic, they turn to Christianity to back themselves. This is quite odd when applied to debt. One wonders what would happen if they prayed the Lord's prayer, the way Jesus taught us we are supposed to pray. "Forgive us our debts, as we have forgiven our debtors. But was Jesus talking about money here? Well, yes, he actually did have a few parables about people who owed money. Nor should we forget the Year of Jubilee, as decreed by God the Father, during which all financial debts are forgiven. Certainly the debts in the Lord's prayer are more than financial, but just as certainly they do not exclude the financial.
And at this point it is also instructive to think about where all this money which we supposedly owe comes from. Did the banks take from their hard-earned resources, which they had carefully built and saved over the years, and risk them to help us? Not hardly. Thanks to the glory of fractional reserve banking (and yes, this is a good thing), the money is, in fact, something they just made up.
And didn't we, in fact, just spend billions (or was it more) of OUR money, earned by the sweat of our brow, via our taxes (remember that the ultra rich and the corporations do not pay tax, only middle America), to bail out these banks?
Something is very wrong with the Repulican party
Posting an early draft version, full of flaws
The morality of US debt
I did a favor for someone recently, which involved money. They thanked me and said they didn't know how they would ever repay me. I said getting the money back would be enough.
Debt. It is essential to social function, to a functioning society. But even more important than debt is debt forgiveness, redemption. Debt is obligation, debt is bondage, and ultimately, debt is slavery.
Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Tyagi, writing in the Boston Review in 2005, discuss the sorry state of middle America's finances. There seems to be a cry from the right wing and from banks that this is middle America's fault, that if only they weren't so consumer crazy, always buying the latest and best fasion and gadgets, all the while living beyond their means, then they would be in better shape. The cry was turned into a major re-write of bankrupcy laws, laws which were in essence written by the lenders.
But the data does not show that Americans are overspending, in fact they spend less of their income on food/restaurants, clothes, appliances, cars, etc. then they did in the 70's. Instead, they face higher costs, for taxes, health insurance, child care.
http://bostonreview.net/BR30.5/warrentyagi.php
My neice was unemployed for a period of some months. She doesn't have a savings built up because she is young, having just graduated college, and hasn't had time. So she lived off her credit card. Irresponsible? I hardly think so. The bank charged her 24% interest on the credit card loan. How do you repay a debt which has an interest rate of 24%? Who is acting immorally here? In her defense, the debt has been repaid, along with the usurious and exploitative interest charges.
And wait a minute, wasn't it these same prophets of the right who encourage middle America to spend? Who was it who urged us, as our 'patriotic duty', to go shopping after 9-11? Since when did consumption become a patriotic duty?
That question has, in fact, been answered in the great BBC documentary 'The Century of the Self'. This describes how the industrial revolution lead to excess of capacity, threatening the foundations of the industrial society, and, more importantly, the bank balances of its leaders. Something had to be done. Something was done. Advertising convinced us that the route to personal fulfillment was through buying things. This is a message which is continually rammed down our throat, in ever sophistocated means. It is, in fact, a precept. If we measure a country's growth in terms of GNP, then GNP must increase each year, which can only happen if consumption also increases each year. Our economy is built on a model of continually and exponentially growning consumption.
Whenever the right wing gets moralistic, they turn to Christianity to back themselves. This is quite odd when applied to debt. One wonders what would happen if they prayed the Lord's prayer, the way Jesus taught us we are supposed to pray. "Forgive us our debts, as we have forgiven our debtors. But was Jesus talking about money here? Well, yes, he actually did have a few parables about people who owed money. Nor should we forget the Year of Jubilee, as decreed by God the Father, during which all financial debts are forgiven. Certainly the debts in the Lord's prayer are more than financial, but just as certainly they do not exclude the financial.
And at this point it is also instructive to think about where all this money which we supposedly owe comes from. Did the banks take from their hard-earned resources, which they had carefully built and saved over the years, and risk them to help us? Not hardly. Thanks to the glory of fractional reserve banking (and yes, this is a good thing), the money is, in fact, something they just made up.
And didn't we, in fact, just spend billions (or was it more) of OUR money, earned by the sweat of our brow, via our taxes (remember that the ultra rich and the corporations do not pay tax, only middle America), to bail out these banks?
Something is very wrong with the Repulican party
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
stock picks-- ideas from pennysleuth.com
Presented with a grain of salt. A big grain.
Memristors: a great, new type of electronics awaits. Today's price:
HPQ 37.47
Magnachip Semiconductor LLC (NYSE:MX) 11.28
Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), 7.86
and Netlist, Inc. (NASDAQ:NLST). 1.86
-----------------------------------
HTML 5 will revolutionize the web, and AMD makes the video cards which will make it happen
AMD 7.66
NVIDIA (NVDA) 14.40
--------------------------------------
Medicine and drug discovery
Accelr8 Technology Corp. (AMEX:AXK) 4.01
product is BACeITM which identifies bacteria without need for a culture.
Macro economics
Evidence: macro-based funds (i.e. Soros) have been struggling in this last year, even though the year has been dominated by macro factors. Why?
It is now macro-political, not macro-economic. The politics are much harder to predi
It is now macro-political, not macro-economic. The politics are much harder to predi
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Tomas Sedelack "The Economics of good and evil"
Advises the Hungarian goverment on policy.
Studied economy in myths and religious texts, then studied myths and religious texts in economics.
triggered an idea-- model the evolution of the fairy tale?
Governments have two tools: Fiscal policy, that is the ability to put the people into debt, and monetary policy, that is the ability to print money (or remove it)
Fiscal policy: Jacob/Pharoh, 7 rich years and 7 lean years.
Interesting that it has been 7 rich years, from 2001 until 2008...
Jocob advised Pharoh to set aside 20%
We ate everything, and in fact did more, we borrowed recklessly during the good years.
Compare GDP to deficit growth, US had a net of -28% over the last few years. GDP by itself is not enough, since you can only borrow money from your future (unless you default..)
Hungarian policy is to keep the GDP growth and deficit at a fixed ratio. Save in the rich years, spend in the lean years.
Monitary policy. Analogy to the One Ring in LotR. Great power, but corrupts and destroys. He is here talking about the ability to print money.
Interest rate is like alcohol. Alcohol doesn't give you more energy, it merely lets you move some energy to Friday night from Saturday morning. Nothing wrong with that. A bit of a problem if you move energy from Monday morning to Sunday night, esp. if you have an important meeting.
Problem with interest rates is you time-shift the money more than a few days, and you do not know what the conditions will be when the energy deficit hits.
Our society has a built in weakness. It says you need the money at the start of your career, to pay for college, house, car. And you have the money at the end of your career. Which is a problem if you don't become CEO.
Studied economy in myths and religious texts, then studied myths and religious texts in economics.
triggered an idea-- model the evolution of the fairy tale?
Governments have two tools: Fiscal policy, that is the ability to put the people into debt, and monetary policy, that is the ability to print money (or remove it)
Fiscal policy: Jacob/Pharoh, 7 rich years and 7 lean years.
Interesting that it has been 7 rich years, from 2001 until 2008...
Jocob advised Pharoh to set aside 20%
We ate everything, and in fact did more, we borrowed recklessly during the good years.
Compare GDP to deficit growth, US had a net of -28% over the last few years. GDP by itself is not enough, since you can only borrow money from your future (unless you default..)
Hungarian policy is to keep the GDP growth and deficit at a fixed ratio. Save in the rich years, spend in the lean years.
Monitary policy. Analogy to the One Ring in LotR. Great power, but corrupts and destroys. He is here talking about the ability to print money.
Interest rate is like alcohol. Alcohol doesn't give you more energy, it merely lets you move some energy to Friday night from Saturday morning. Nothing wrong with that. A bit of a problem if you move energy from Monday morning to Sunday night, esp. if you have an important meeting.
Problem with interest rates is you time-shift the money more than a few days, and you do not know what the conditions will be when the energy deficit hits.
Our society has a built in weakness. It says you need the money at the start of your career, to pay for college, house, car. And you have the money at the end of your career. Which is a problem if you don't become CEO.
Ian Leslie 06-09-2011 Necessary Lies
Mr. Leslie works in advertising and writing (newspaper columns and books)
Argues that lies are essential to civilization.
The development of the neocortex is to allow us to both be better liars and better at detecting lies. Strong correlation between brain size and "trickyness"/deceit in monkeys.
Punishing lies harshly only makes people better liars. Example of two schools, one run by nuns with strict corpreal punishment for lying, the other where it resulted in detention. At the nuns school, lies became endemic, the norm.
Politicians. They don't lie as much as they are rumoured too, but that is because no-one can lie 100% of the time. Pols lie because we reward the ones who do, who promise what we want even though it is not possible. We punish them when they tell the truth, or decribe the situation as it really is.
Medicine. The strength of the placebo effect.
Self deception. We all lie to ourselves. Seeing ourselves as others do is equivalent to clinical depression. Belief in ones self correlates with later success in most fields; the "truth" of that belief is not so important. Mr. Leslie calls this lieing to oneself.
This self deception also appears on a social level, and is hugely important to a society. The American ideal that we can all succeed in business, or that we are all if not today, then soon, to be in the upper 1%.
My take:
First, he confuses lies with vision. The vision only succeeds when you believe in it. This is also why we want our leaders to give us vision and hope. It is the only way out of the mess.
A vision is sight of how things could be, not how they are. A vision is not a lie, not some dangerous delusion. It is central to what makes us human.
I think Mr. Leslie would agree.
Hume's take: Man is driven by imagination (i.e. vision, or things which exist in the mind but do not necessarily correspond to the current state of the world) The organizing principles which support these visions are the cultural context, both broad and narrow.
Argues that lies are essential to civilization.
The development of the neocortex is to allow us to both be better liars and better at detecting lies. Strong correlation between brain size and "trickyness"/deceit in monkeys.
Punishing lies harshly only makes people better liars. Example of two schools, one run by nuns with strict corpreal punishment for lying, the other where it resulted in detention. At the nuns school, lies became endemic, the norm.
Politicians. They don't lie as much as they are rumoured too, but that is because no-one can lie 100% of the time. Pols lie because we reward the ones who do, who promise what we want even though it is not possible. We punish them when they tell the truth, or decribe the situation as it really is.
Medicine. The strength of the placebo effect.
Self deception. We all lie to ourselves. Seeing ourselves as others do is equivalent to clinical depression. Belief in ones self correlates with later success in most fields; the "truth" of that belief is not so important. Mr. Leslie calls this lieing to oneself.
This self deception also appears on a social level, and is hugely important to a society. The American ideal that we can all succeed in business, or that we are all if not today, then soon, to be in the upper 1%.
My take:
First, he confuses lies with vision. The vision only succeeds when you believe in it. This is also why we want our leaders to give us vision and hope. It is the only way out of the mess.
A vision is sight of how things could be, not how they are. A vision is not a lie, not some dangerous delusion. It is central to what makes us human.
I think Mr. Leslie would agree.
Hume's take: Man is driven by imagination (i.e. vision, or things which exist in the mind but do not necessarily correspond to the current state of the world) The organizing principles which support these visions are the cultural context, both broad and narrow.
spotting addicts
In memory of Amy Winehouse
The disease of addiction. All addicts, regardless of the substance or their social status share a consistent and obvious symptom; they’re not quite present when you talk to them. They communicate to you through a barely discernible but un-ignorable veil... They have about them the air of elsewhere, that they’re looking through you to somewhere else they’d rather be. And of course they are. The priority of any addict is to anaesthetise the pain of living to ease the passage of the day with some purchased relief.
All we can do is adapt the way we view this condition, not as a crime or a romantic affectation but as a disease that will kill. We need to review the way society treats addicts, not as criminals but as sick people in need of care. We need to look at the way our government funds rehabilitation. It is cheaper to rehabilitate an addict than to send them to prison, so criminalisation doesn’t even make economic sense.
From
http://www.russellbrand.tv/2011/07/for-amy/
The disease of addiction. All addicts, regardless of the substance or their social status share a consistent and obvious symptom; they’re not quite present when you talk to them. They communicate to you through a barely discernible but un-ignorable veil... They have about them the air of elsewhere, that they’re looking through you to somewhere else they’d rather be. And of course they are. The priority of any addict is to anaesthetise the pain of living to ease the passage of the day with some purchased relief.
All we can do is adapt the way we view this condition, not as a crime or a romantic affectation but as a disease that will kill. We need to review the way society treats addicts, not as criminals but as sick people in need of care. We need to look at the way our government funds rehabilitation. It is cheaper to rehabilitate an addict than to send them to prison, so criminalisation doesn’t even make economic sense.
From
http://www.russellbrand.tv/2011/07/for-amy/
We cannot predict the future
Posting this because the idea has come up 2 or 3 times in the last few days.
People are bad at predicting the future. Even experts.
From Freakenomics blog:
It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brain, which has become trained to ignore the record of those who make them. In this hour of Freakonomics Radio, we’ll dream of the day when bad predictors pay.
hour long vid here:
http://freakonomicsradio.com/hour-long-special-the-folly-of-prediction.html
People are bad at predicting the future. Even experts.
From Freakenomics blog:
It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brain, which has become trained to ignore the record of those who make them. In this hour of Freakonomics Radio, we’ll dream of the day when bad predictors pay.
hour long vid here:
http://freakonomicsradio.com/hour-long-special-the-folly-of-prediction.html
Monday, July 25, 2011
Simon Cohen Zero Degrees of Empathy 6/14/2011
Professor of both psychiatry and psychology at Cambridge.
What strikes me is his motivation-- he begins by caring about people, and then moves to trying to understand what is going on in the mind.
Two kinds of zero empathy-- negative (hurts self & others), this is psychopathy. Positive (do not intentionally hurt others) autism, which has the bonus of attention to detail.
Empathy has a genetic component. So it should be present in other animals. Best monkey example is an experiment from the 60's. Train monkeys to pull a chain to get a food reward. They learn fast. Then change it, so when they pull the chain, they get the food AND they see a fellow monkey receive an electric shock. They soon stop pulling the chain. One monkey even starved itself for 12 days rather than hurt a fellow monkey.
What strikes me is his motivation-- he begins by caring about people, and then moves to trying to understand what is going on in the mind.
Two kinds of zero empathy-- negative (hurts self & others), this is psychopathy. Positive (do not intentionally hurt others) autism, which has the bonus of attention to detail.
Empathy has a genetic component. So it should be present in other animals. Best monkey example is an experiment from the 60's. Train monkeys to pull a chain to get a food reward. They learn fast. Then change it, so when they pull the chain, they get the food AND they see a fellow monkey receive an electric shock. They soon stop pulling the chain. One monkey even starved itself for 12 days rather than hurt a fellow monkey.
Genetic Landscape of a Cell
Article by Costanzo et al, in Science (vol 327, Jan 2010).
New word Pleiotropy - when a single gene influences multiple phenotypic traits.
Like so many other biological networks, the degree distribution follows a power law. Network hubs have a high degree of pleiotropy, with the number of genetic interactions for a hubsignificantly correlated with the number of distinct annotated functions. Does this work in reverse? This suggests that genetic network hubs play key roles in the integration and execution of morphogenetic programs.
In addition, hubs tend to be expressed at higher mRNA levels, genetic interaction degree corresponds positively with gene conseravation and negatively with copy number volatility.
Layout was done using Cytoscape, with an edge-weighted spring embedded algorithm
Fun stuff!
New word Pleiotropy - when a single gene influences multiple phenotypic traits.
Like so many other biological networks, the degree distribution follows a power law. Network hubs have a high degree of pleiotropy, with the number of genetic interactions for a hubsignificantly correlated with the number of distinct annotated functions. Does this work in reverse? This suggests that genetic network hubs play key roles in the integration and execution of morphogenetic programs.
In addition, hubs tend to be expressed at higher mRNA levels, genetic interaction degree corresponds positively with gene conseravation and negatively with copy number volatility.
Layout was done using Cytoscape, with an edge-weighted spring embedded algorithm
Fun stuff!
Celestial Navigation
Links and supplies:
Books by David Burch:
1830 Emergency Navigation 13.95
1887 Celestial Navigation 49.00
from
Starpath School of Navigation
3050 - NW 63rd Street
Seattle, WA 98107, U.S.A.
tel (206)-783-1414
FAX (206)-783-9209
https://www.starpath.com/
Plotting sheet:
http://www.starpath.com/downloads/ups.pdf
Also look at:
Free online course at:
http://www.celestial-navigation-course.com/
http://www.celestialnavigation.net/
Books by David Burch:
1830 Emergency Navigation 13.95
1887 Celestial Navigation 49.00
from
Starpath School of Navigation
3050 - NW 63rd Street
Seattle, WA 98107, U.S.A.
tel (206)-783-1414
FAX (206)-783-9209
https://www.starpath.com/
Plotting sheet:
http://www.starpath.com/downloads/ups.pdf
Also look at:
Free online course at:
http://www.celestial-navigation-course.com/
http://www.celestialnavigation.net/
Tim Harford 6/7/2011 why success starts with failure
Mr. Harford is an economist, writes for the FT, fellow at Oxford & somewhere else, author of a few books.
The main idea of this talk is that trial and error is the best way to solve complex problems. An advantage of markets is they allow trial an error. Think "limited liability company". Compare (US) west coast "fail faster" and east coast "too big to fail". Which adds more value to the economy?
The key component is error. Many things will fail. People are bad at predicting the future, even experts are usually wrong.
A better word is experimentation. Have several different approaches tested out. He is very fond of Cochran & evidence based medicine-- conduct randomized trials.
Mr. Harford is also concerned that governments are really bad at this stuff. People don't like leaders who are not confident that they have the solution. School lunches, it is ok for Jamie Oliver to do it, but no way can Blair run experiments on school food.
The coke analogy. People want the same standard everywhere. No post-code lottery. My hospital should be just as good as the other hospital. This standarization is the death of experimentation. You cannot try out different things if everything has to be the same.
Right. So my take:
The experimentation takes place on the level of the society. An individual, or smaller group, depends on a vision and absolute conviction to that vision. The trial does not succeed without the individual vision pushing it.
Example from this talk. Army colonel in Iraq sees how to fight that thing, and does it. Universally scorned by his commanders because he isn't doing it there way. Risking his men's lives. But also, he was right, or rather, his method was hugely successful.
Point from the discussion. The importance of luck, both lifting one up and pulling one down.
The main idea of this talk is that trial and error is the best way to solve complex problems. An advantage of markets is they allow trial an error. Think "limited liability company". Compare (US) west coast "fail faster" and east coast "too big to fail". Which adds more value to the economy?
The key component is error. Many things will fail. People are bad at predicting the future, even experts are usually wrong.
A better word is experimentation. Have several different approaches tested out. He is very fond of Cochran & evidence based medicine-- conduct randomized trials.
Mr. Harford is also concerned that governments are really bad at this stuff. People don't like leaders who are not confident that they have the solution. School lunches, it is ok for Jamie Oliver to do it, but no way can Blair run experiments on school food.
The coke analogy. People want the same standard everywhere. No post-code lottery. My hospital should be just as good as the other hospital. This standarization is the death of experimentation. You cannot try out different things if everything has to be the same.
Right. So my take:
The experimentation takes place on the level of the society. An individual, or smaller group, depends on a vision and absolute conviction to that vision. The trial does not succeed without the individual vision pushing it.
Example from this talk. Army colonel in Iraq sees how to fight that thing, and does it. Universally scorned by his commanders because he isn't doing it there way. Risking his men's lives. But also, he was right, or rather, his method was hugely successful.
Point from the discussion. The importance of luck, both lifting one up and pulling one down.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
HUMAnN project
This project tracts the human microbiome
16s sequencing ribosomal, gives taxonomic name tags.
Software (available for download):
BLASTs sequences to identify genes.
Includes each gene using its weighted average BLAST score
Assigns genes to pathways
under restraints of minimum parsimony
and taxonomic limitation
smooths (data is counts, so Witten-Bell smoothing)
+ a few more steps (gap filling)
Results:
For any given environment (tooth, gut, etc.), the same basic pathways are present at about the same abundance, but the species/taxons vary greatly in abundance.
Further, all pathways/functions available everywhere, with local enrichment for those which are locally usefull.
software/links
huttenhower.sph.harvard.edu
Look for Valm et al PNAS 2011 on the tooth metagenome
16s sequencing ribosomal, gives taxonomic name tags.
Software (available for download):
BLASTs sequences to identify genes.
Includes each gene using its weighted average BLAST score
Assigns genes to pathways
under restraints of minimum parsimony
and taxonomic limitation
smooths (data is counts, so Witten-Bell smoothing)
+ a few more steps (gap filling)
Results:
For any given environment (tooth, gut, etc.), the same basic pathways are present at about the same abundance, but the species/taxons vary greatly in abundance.
Further, all pathways/functions available everywhere, with local enrichment for those which are locally usefull.
software/links
huttenhower.sph.harvard.edu
Look for Valm et al PNAS 2011 on the tooth metagenome
Christel Kamp epi spread and network
Topology of network influences epidemic spread, but infection status changes network topology.
Given my contacts, what is the probability that I am [S,I,R]?
What is the trajectory of the average degree of the network?
Allow migrants-- this can have a huge effect on the epidemic outcome.
Maureen Stolzer- phylogenetic inference for multifunction proteins
Multi domain proteins are prevalent and functionally important.
Hard to align, since the many side domains have different sequences.
define reference tree from main element.
Build trees using other domains, and perturb them to match ref tree.
Luis Serrano- protein dynamics in small bacteria
Few known transcription factors, yet complex behavior- we are missing something.
Metabolic factors are central to many cellular functions, and can work as transcription regulators.
Making proteins is expensive, 90% of cells energy, while rna is cheap.
See also pictures.
Monday, July 18, 2011
What I am seeing in many of the leading talks
The author has an approach which they have developed and refined over several publications.
Paul Horton- LAST for sequence alignment
2 ideas.
Replace hash table with suffix array (adoptive seeds), up to 100x speedup.
Add read quality score to alignment penalty.
Available from
Last.cbrc.jp
Ankur Parikh TREEGL
Tree evolving networks.
Learn network by choosing one gene as Y and others as betas, then lasso to find betas predictive of Y.
Extends this by adding a second penalty which reduces the variation in the betas in two regressions, where the second regression is fit to a daughter node of the first experiment.
I.e. same cell before, during, and after treatment.
Janet Thornton- evolution of enzyme mechanisms and functional diversity
Grand vision- an arrow showing the pathway for bioinformatics:
Dictionary-- the parts (genes,proteins,etc)
Thesaurus-- the interactions
Circuit diagram-- the biological networks
Atlas-- where (and when) it happetns.
We are only at the thesaurus stage
Data doubles every 5 months
Comparing, clustering, evolution of bio chemistry.
Most enzyme evolution (90%) is within the same enzyme class, adopting to either a new substrate or new product.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
What do people want from pop science?
What sells? What gets published?
Need human element, people want to know the inside story. But that isn't really my strong point...
Want to know how things work. This I can do.
Throw in spiritual element. Example- Torula-- need and value of minority elements. When the sit does hit the fan, as it will, the minority element will be what saves us all. Rather, one of the minority elements. and we won't know which one it is until after.
true for virus/fungus/etc, but misses that all people are made in the image and likeness of God- we are all glorious.
Logbook
Reading an old book on navigation. He explains how you measure the distance traveled using the "log" a piece of wood trailed behind the boat. He remarks that one should read the distance traveled from the log, and write it in the log book.
Etimology?
Making sense of the hairball
by Natasa Przulj
Network topology contains biological data. Topological structures are preserved across species
Wrote software for network alignment:
GRAAL
MI-GRAAL
basic approach is seed and extend.
MI allows nodes to have similarity values, which provide additional information for the alignment.
degree of node and connection pattern defines 'graphlets'
Graph crunch software.
See also Isorank, by Bonnie Berger's lab.
Network topology contains biological data. Topological structures are preserved across species
Wrote software for network alignment:
GRAAL
MI-GRAAL
basic approach is seed and extend.
MI allows nodes to have similarity values, which provide additional information for the alignment.
degree of node and connection pattern defines 'graphlets'
Graph crunch software.
See also Isorank, by Bonnie Berger's lab.
Evolutionary priors in GWAS studies
By Joel Dudley
SNPs are conserved with different probability.
Using these probabilities in GWAS studies can boost probability, and lift interesting borderline genes into significance.
Gives better performance than the___ study.
Viral evolution: stray thoughts
Detecting changes in the fitness landscape.Species density gives an estimate of the fitness function.Changes in density reflect changes in this function.
The virus changes the landscape by killing all the T-cells. Some think this leads the switch from r5 to x4 species.
Proportions only tell part of the story, also need population levels
The virus changes the landscape by killing all the T-cells. Some think this leads the switch from r5 to x4 species.
Proportions only tell part of the story, also need population levels
Otto Habsburg
The last of the dynasty, would have been the emperor of Austria had the 20th century turned out differently. Lived much of his life in exile, active in German politics.
He was buried on Saturday, but his heart was buried in Hungary. It was his wish, and an old family tradition.
He was buried on Saturday, but his heart was buried in Hungary. It was his wish, and an old family tradition.
DE novo assembly for mixed species
By Yu Peng
De novo assembly is confused by regions which are shared across species. May also have sub species.
The graph splits at each similar region. With sub species, the separate paths trend to converge. With different species, they do not.
Friday, July 15, 2011
The power of cliche
America, land of cliche
Drawn from an editorial in the 14 july ht (the day after the mumbia bombing). Some harvard buds school profs selling evidence based management as the new trend. Fact- evidence- realty- based The author's point is that all of these are stupid or obvious ideas.
My take: cliche sells, since that out how people think (Hume). Saying the cliches well is what matters.
It helps that I think I remember why evidence based medicine came it. The author suggested that divination was the opposite choice, but no, there was a real problem.
From wikipedia, on the history of EBM
Traces of evidence-based medicine's origin can be found in ancient Greece,[19][25] Although testing medical interventions for efficacy has existed since the time of Avicenna's The Canon of Medicine in the 11th century,[26][27] it was only in the 20th century that this effort evolved to impact almost all fields of health care and policy. Professor Archie Cochrane, a Scottish epidemiologist, through his book Effectiveness and Efficiency: Random Reflections on Health Services (1972) and subsequent advocacy, caused increasing acceptance of the concepts behind evidence-based practice
Drawn from an editorial in the 14 july ht (the day after the mumbia bombing). Some harvard buds school profs selling evidence based management as the new trend. Fact- evidence- realty- based
My take: cliche sells, since that out how people think (Hume). Saying the cliches well is what matters.
It helps that I think I remember why evidence based medicine came it. The author suggested that divination was the opposite choice, but no, there was a real problem.
From wikipedia, on the history of EBM
Traces of evidence-based medicine's origin can be found in ancient Greece,[19][25] Although testing medical interventions for efficacy has existed since the time of Avicenna's The Canon of Medicine in the 11th century,[26][27] it was only in the 20th century that this effort evolved to impact almost all fields of health care and policy. Professor Archie Cochrane, a Scottish epidemiologist, through his book Effectiveness and Efficiency: Random Reflections on Health Services (1972) and subsequent advocacy, caused increasing acceptance of the concepts behind evidence-based practice
Evolutionary modelling for finance
Why evolutionary modling makes sense for finance:
Linear models don't.they assume a steady state our at least equilibrium state with normal variation which can be explained by some covariates
Finance has no steady state.
How to map market onto a species space? Equity prices? Price histories? Prediction functions?
Maybe all of those are genes,, do we add regulatory genes?,, how do we build an animal?
Over what timescale do we measure fitness, measure returns?
Linear models don't.they assume a steady state our at least equilibrium state with normal variation which can be explained by some covariates
Finance has no steady state.
How to map market onto a species space? Equity prices? Price histories? Prediction functions?
Maybe all of those are genes,, do we add regulatory genes?,, how do we build an animal?
Over what timescale do we measure fitness, measure returns?
Thoughts from the voyage
Saw a book in the airport proporting a history of bad ideas. Sounds like a fun read!
Command post of the Future
Man, machine interface. Doug Engelbart's (of ARPA) vision of the computer as enhancing the human intellect requires people also to grow to meet the machine. Chording keyboard allows one handed typing.
Also wanted to change how groups intact. Hence command post of the future. Uses data structures designed to allow putting human knowledge into a computer dstabase mind, to allow command staff to input all of their plans on the same map, and visualize it. Opps guy develops a plan, drags it over to the logistics guy's map and he can work on how to support it. Commander can see it all, our zoom in to one user's map.
from The Department of Mad Scientists, a horribly written book about the founding of ARPA.
Also wanted to change how groups intact. Hence command post of the future. Uses data structures designed to allow putting human knowledge into a computer dstabase mind, to allow command staff to input all of their plans on the same map, and visualize it. Opps guy develops a plan, drags it over to the logistics guy's map and he can work on how to support it. Commander can see it all, our zoom in to one user's map.
from The Department of Mad Scientists, a horribly written book about the founding of ARPA.
re: tea party
Hi, Glenn - How things are evolving now is that the Tea Party is about No Compromise, end of story. Unfortunately democratic government can't work without compromise; hence the current stalemate at the State, and I suspect soon at the national level as well.
I see it as the secular equivalent of the Christian Right (and with considerable overlap in membership, sympathies, and demographics), holding unshakably to a doctrinal position that cannot be compromised without losing your moral integrity and indeed very soul & identity. At this point it has simplified down to "No New Taxes," period, not even to something as relatively sophisticated as cutting taxes as a means to cutting back government. In the same way some hold to a 6-day creation is the token of all truth, even to the point that one doesn't worry about any other point of doctrine. If you're sound on the literal truth of a 6 day creation that's all that matters; they simply assume that therefore "you believe what the Bible says" and can be trusted to be sound on all the rest.
As of today, 38% of Minnesota's beer supply has been cut off, due to the expiration of the Miller/Coors license to sell in Minnesota, which cannot be renewed as long as the appropriate state office is closed. This does not win you many friends among the general populace. Nor does the fact that c. 3/4th of the legislators are continuing to draw their pay checks, even though they are not doing their job, again something that everyone can relate to and be disgusted with -- you don't even have to be one of the 40,000 state employees who have been laid off. Lists of names are now being published in the papers, so you can tell who is still paying themselves and who (including the Governor) has foregone their salaries.
And yes, it does have a demographic element. In some ways it's all about people who were so uptight when they were in their 20's that they missed the 60's (the civil rights & anti-war movements, pot & free love, Haight-Ashbury, the Beetles, etc.), so now that they're in their 60's they want to have their retroactive counter-cultural fling, only given the rest of their context they come at it from the political right rather than from the left, as in the 60's. In many ways one feels that pity is the appropriate response -- having failed to live life when young, they are trying to make up for it now, when it is at best faintly ridiculous, and at worst politically suicidal, as I think public opinion is turning against them.
Apparently there is real pain in Washington within the mainline Republican leadership, who realize that the Tea Party is likely to sink their ship, but can't divorce them either because they are a main source of support, and largely control who gets killed in the primaries.
In other words, you may be in for exciting times when you come. And at least no one is throwing bombs, as in Mumbai, but I do wonder at what point the frustration here may spill over into violence.
Love, Dad
I see it as the secular equivalent of the Christian Right (and with considerable overlap in membership, sympathies, and demographics), holding unshakably to a doctrinal position that cannot be compromised without losing your moral integrity and indeed very soul & identity. At this point it has simplified down to "No New Taxes," period, not even to something as relatively sophisticated as cutting taxes as a means to cutting back government. In the same way some hold to a 6-day creation is the token of all truth, even to the point that one doesn't worry about any other point of doctrine. If you're sound on the literal truth of a 6 day creation that's all that matters; they simply assume that therefore "you believe what the Bible says" and can be trusted to be sound on all the rest.
As of today, 38% of Minnesota's beer supply has been cut off, due to the expiration of the Miller/Coors license to sell in Minnesota, which cannot be renewed as long as the appropriate state office is closed. This does not win you many friends among the general populace. Nor does the fact that c. 3/4th of the legislators are continuing to draw their pay checks, even though they are not doing their job, again something that everyone can relate to and be disgusted with -- you don't even have to be one of the 40,000 state employees who have been laid off. Lists of names are now being published in the papers, so you can tell who is still paying themselves and who (including the Governor) has foregone their salaries.
And yes, it does have a demographic element. In some ways it's all about people who were so uptight when they were in their 20's that they missed the 60's (the civil rights & anti-war movements, pot & free love, Haight-Ashbury, the Beetles, etc.), so now that they're in their 60's they want to have their retroactive counter-cultural fling, only given the rest of their context they come at it from the political right rather than from the left, as in the 60's. In many ways one feels that pity is the appropriate response -- having failed to live life when young, they are trying to make up for it now, when it is at best faintly ridiculous, and at worst politically suicidal, as I think public opinion is turning against them.
Apparently there is real pain in Washington within the mainline Republican leadership, who realize that the Tea Party is likely to sink their ship, but can't divorce them either because they are a main source of support, and largely control who gets killed in the primaries.
In other words, you may be in for exciting times when you come. And at least no one is throwing bombs, as in Mumbai, but I do wonder at what point the frustration here may spill over into violence.
Love, Dad
Collaboration based research
Approach taken by Prof. Anthony Kusalik, from a conversation at the ISMB conference.
And a great cliche
He is a computer scientist, and finds biologists with wet labs. Confirm computational results with lab work. Has to get commitment from lab before working with them.
Echos:
1)Cliche-driven society column.
2)E. Cahn's 2nd economy, collaboration/value work from both sides.
3) Prince concert- strong sense that the concert was something we created together (so of course we could tape/record it) "I sang for you, now you sing for me"
Network structure
1) Nature re-uses ideas.
2) social networks reflect structure of society-- the human hive mind.
3) ants/bees also have well studied hive minds.
4) what network homologies exist between 2 and 3? Other systems (schooling fish, herd animals, flocks)?
Idea inspired by a comment from Nadya.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
science as a priesthood
Rough sketch of a rough idea:
As an outgrowth of the Victorian age & their faith in science and technology, today science is seen as a voice of truth, if not the voice of truth, because of its ability to explain our origins etc.
Thus the strong movement in religion to have God somehow explain everything. Only recently have people tried to read the first chapters of Genesis as a literal text.
This is an attempt to return religion to its rightful place, but is rather the wrong method for doing so. Religion cannot beat science in the domain of science, not without perverting it. Religion has another domain.
Which modern society seems to downplay.
Perhaps society is too left-brain? Mcgilchrist.
As an outgrowth of the Victorian age & their faith in science and technology, today science is seen as a voice of truth, if not the voice of truth, because of its ability to explain our origins etc.
Thus the strong movement in religion to have God somehow explain everything. Only recently have people tried to read the first chapters of Genesis as a literal text.
This is an attempt to return religion to its rightful place, but is rather the wrong method for doing so. Religion cannot beat science in the domain of science, not without perverting it. Religion has another domain.
Which modern society seems to downplay.
Perhaps society is too left-brain? Mcgilchrist.
Hume, 300 years on
Speakers weren't that good, but were saved by the topic.
Hume did not go for the prevailing understanding that reason was the guide, or organizing principle, or the source of knowledge. Extremely controversial
He saw the driver of the mind as the imagination, and the organizational principle to be the culture and society in which the individual lived.
As one consequence, any body of knowledge built on a foundation of 'reason' was in fact built on a foundation of mud. He was especially critical of religion, which did not earn him many friends.
He investigated culture primarily in terms of the means of obtaining substinance and in terms of the distribution of property/wealth.
Most famous, however, for his history of England, which was a best seller and is still considered a great work
Hume did not go for the prevailing understanding that reason was the guide, or organizing principle, or the source of knowledge. Extremely controversial
He saw the driver of the mind as the imagination, and the organizational principle to be the culture and society in which the individual lived.
As one consequence, any body of knowledge built on a foundation of 'reason' was in fact built on a foundation of mud. He was especially critical of religion, which did not earn him many friends.
He investigated culture primarily in terms of the means of obtaining substinance and in terms of the distribution of property/wealth.
Most famous, however, for his history of England, which was a best seller and is still considered a great work
Jung
Forget the speakers, but a retrospective on Jung.
So much that I should have known back at the time when I was more into this sort of thing. I guess I did know it, but not explicitly.
Part of Jung's interest in the occult comes from his upbringing, which was filled with it. Seances, etc were normal parts of his childhood.
He wrote about the age of aquarius in 1940.
Unifying the self (vs Freud, uncover and remove the junk)
Universal human architypes.
So much that I should have known back at the time when I was more into this sort of thing. I guess I did know it, but not explicitly.
Part of Jung's interest in the occult comes from his upbringing, which was filled with it. Seances, etc were normal parts of his childhood.
He wrote about the age of aquarius in 1940.
Unifying the self (vs Freud, uncover and remove the junk)
Universal human architypes.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Ending HIV in Africa
Sven Eric tells me that Hans Rosling says
"We can stop HIV if only we had a test that could tell us when the patient contracted the virus"
http://lindau.nature.com/lindau/2011/07/panel-discussion-global-health-lindau-nobel-laureate-meeting-2011
If I had a good time-evolving model, showing the distribution of types at each year, I could estimate the probability of the year the person became infected.
"We can stop HIV if only we had a test that could tell us when the patient contracted the virus"
http://lindau.nature.com/lindau/2011/07/panel-discussion-global-health-lindau-nobel-laureate-meeting-2011
If I had a good time-evolving model, showing the distribution of types at each year, I could estimate the probability of the year the person became infected.
Bethany McLean 12/02/2010 "All the devils are still with us"
Bethany McLean is the journalist who uncovered the Enron scandal, and was penalized for this, just days before the company went tits up. This book looks at the current mess.
She starts with her bio. Math/English major, grunt job at GS, grunt job at Fortune (or a similar mag), turns it into a bi-weekly column "Stocks to watch" where she finds companies with a great story and hypes them. Learns cynicism-- great stories don't make great companies, and people cook the books.
So she writes about Enron, and gets it right.
Now she has written about the credit mess. The usual fault is human greed and incompetence.
Does it all as human stories. that's what Journalists do. Founder of countrywide sees homeownership as a boon, wants it for everyone, and wants his company to be the biggest in the world. So he offers any kind of mortgage that anyone else offers, and takes the same shortcuts needed to compete (short-term).
Don't underestimate incompetence.
Bad incentives lead to bad behavior.
Nothing has been fixed.
She is a horrid speaker, full of word-stuttering (repeating a phrase 3 times), but I think I would like to be her friend.
She starts with her bio. Math/English major, grunt job at GS, grunt job at Fortune (or a similar mag), turns it into a bi-weekly column "Stocks to watch" where she finds companies with a great story and hypes them. Learns cynicism-- great stories don't make great companies, and people cook the books.
So she writes about Enron, and gets it right.
Now she has written about the credit mess. The usual fault is human greed and incompetence.
Does it all as human stories. that's what Journalists do. Founder of countrywide sees homeownership as a boon, wants it for everyone, and wants his company to be the biggest in the world. So he offers any kind of mortgage that anyone else offers, and takes the same shortcuts needed to compete (short-term).
Don't underestimate incompetence.
Bad incentives lead to bad behavior.
Nothing has been fixed.
She is a horrid speaker, full of word-stuttering (repeating a phrase 3 times), but I think I would like to be her friend.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Ben Okri 4 april 2011
Brevity-- so much chatter, books are long, newspapers are long. Write something short.
Big theme: adversity and overcoming.
Each people must find its own vision of who they are.
Japan's recovery after WWII
Sent the link to my Mom, as Ben's philosphy reminds me so much of her
Sunday, July 10, 2011
risk or uncertainty
known unkowns and unkown unkowns.
Or, risk describes the "spread" of a known probability distribution - for example, the chance that you'll roll something other than a 7 given that you know you're throwing two six-sided dice. Uncertainty emerges when you don't even know whether the dice have six sides, so you are forced to entjavascript:void(0)ertain the possibility that your entire model of the world is incorrect.
Quote from Hussman
His approach is to use an ensemble model, which gives a measure of the uncertainty
Or, risk describes the "spread" of a known probability distribution - for example, the chance that you'll roll something other than a 7 given that you know you're throwing two six-sided dice. Uncertainty emerges when you don't even know whether the dice have six sides, so you are forced to entjavascript:void(0)ertain the possibility that your entire model of the world is incorrect.
Quote from Hussman
His approach is to use an ensemble model, which gives a measure of the uncertainty
extroverts and introverts
The extrovert's problem is finding someone to listen to them. Offer them an ear, and you have a friend for life.
The introvert, however, just wants to be left alone. Ignore them, and you have a friend for life
The introvert, however, just wants to be left alone. Ignore them, and you have a friend for life
Creative breakthrough
I remember a kitten which I was training to stalk and pounce. I would wiggle one hand as the target, lying on the floor. When the kitten came in,i would clap with the other hand. The kitten tried time and again, all of the standard cat stalking strategies.I regret to this day that I did not let it succeed more often. But my biggest regret is that I clapped away one of the biggest breakthroughs I have ever seen. After many minutes of normal stalking strategies, the kitten, with a gleam in her eye, tried using the "cozy/pet me" dance to sneak within range.
That, gentlemen, defines the creative breakthrough.
That, gentlemen, defines the creative breakthrough.
project organizer
A to-do list, and a progress bar which shows how much work you have put into it & also how much you have to go.
Default shows it as started (just writing it down is starting)
List can be re-organized and tagged.
but let's not get carried away.
Default shows it as started (just writing it down is starting)
List can be re-organized and tagged.
but let's not get carried away.
cracking lottery codes
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1
a tic-tac-toe game. On the right were eight tic-tac-toe boards, dense with different numbers. On the left was a box headlined “Your Numbers,” covered with a scratchable latex coating. If three of “Your Numbers” appeared on a board in a straight line, you’d won.
Mohan Srivastava, trained in geological statistics, reasoned that the numbers are not random, as the makers need to control the number of winners. The patterns would follow rules of geological stats. “But that night, as I passed the station, I heard a little voice coming from the back of my head. I’ll never forget what it said: ‘If you do it that way, if you use that algorithm, there will be a flaw. The game will be flawed. You will be able to crack the ticket. You will be able to plunder the lottery.’”
The trick itself is ridiculously simple. Each ticket contained eight tic-tac-toe boards, and each space on those boards contained an exposed number from 1 to 39. As a result, some of these numbers were repeated multiple times. A few numbers appeared only once on the entire card. Srivastava categorized each number according to its frequency. Srivastava was looking for singletons, numbers that appear only a single time on the visible tic-tac-toe boards. singletons were almost always repeated under the latex coating. If three singletons appeared in a row on one of the eight boards, that ticket was probably a winner.
a tic-tac-toe game. On the right were eight tic-tac-toe boards, dense with different numbers. On the left was a box headlined “Your Numbers,” covered with a scratchable latex coating. If three of “Your Numbers” appeared on a board in a straight line, you’d won.
Mohan Srivastava, trained in geological statistics, reasoned that the numbers are not random, as the makers need to control the number of winners. The patterns would follow rules of geological stats. “But that night, as I passed the station, I heard a little voice coming from the back of my head. I’ll never forget what it said: ‘If you do it that way, if you use that algorithm, there will be a flaw. The game will be flawed. You will be able to crack the ticket. You will be able to plunder the lottery.’”
The trick itself is ridiculously simple. Each ticket contained eight tic-tac-toe boards, and each space on those boards contained an exposed number from 1 to 39. As a result, some of these numbers were repeated multiple times. A few numbers appeared only once on the entire card. Srivastava categorized each number according to its frequency. Srivastava was looking for singletons, numbers that appear only a single time on the visible tic-tac-toe boards. singletons were almost always repeated under the latex coating. If three singletons appeared in a row on one of the eight boards, that ticket was probably a winner.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Stray quotes and ideas
You can find a needle in a haystack, but first you have to find the haystack.
What if the default in the calendar was not blank space, but rather "thinking" or "planning"
The Ikea effect. You work so hard to build the stuff that you value it much more than it is worth.
re: republicans, the party of fear
Hi, Glenn - Sounds interesting. You mentioned FDR's first inaugural (the only thing we have to fear is fear itself) You should check out the fuller context on line -- his words describing the prevailing economic distress sound remarkably apt for the situation today, which makes his words all the more salient. With each passing year the man's greatness strikes me more clearly -- he and Churchill.
We included the FDR paragraph in our readings of American sources that we did in place of the sermon at church on the 3rd of July, which had a 4th of July theme. Others were parts of the Dec. of Independence, some MLK jr. speeches, Maya Angelou, Robert Frost's "The Gift Outright" ("The land was ours before we were the land's . . . ") JFK's inaugural, etc. It was very moving, many tears in many eyes, a powerful & much-needed reminder of who we can be at our best, especially in the context of our present situation in the state which is pretty much showing us (or at least the Republicans among us) at our worst.
I am much concerned that the dynamics in the state are the same as at the national level, which means we are watching a dress rehearsal on the Minnesota level for what could become a major national economic & constitutional crisis nationally come August or so.
Love, Dad
We included the FDR paragraph in our readings of American sources that we did in place of the sermon at church on the 3rd of July, which had a 4th of July theme. Others were parts of the Dec. of Independence, some MLK jr. speeches, Maya Angelou, Robert Frost's "The Gift Outright" ("The land was ours before we were the land's . . . ") JFK's inaugural, etc. It was very moving, many tears in many eyes, a powerful & much-needed reminder of who we can be at our best, especially in the context of our present situation in the state which is pretty much showing us (or at least the Republicans among us) at our worst.
I am much concerned that the dynamics in the state are the same as at the national level, which means we are watching a dress rehearsal on the Minnesota level for what could become a major national economic & constitutional crisis nationally come August or so.
Love, Dad
Thursday, July 7, 2011
HIV-- we can beat it
Title of a book I want to write.
Do a history of the disease, and how we can beat it. Bioinformatics and pharmacuticles.
Do a history of the disease, and how we can beat it. Bioinformatics and pharmacuticles.
Edgar Cahn 5/12/2011
Activist, attorney, iterant troublemanker Edgar Cahn gave a brilliant lecture.
He has three topics: pizza, operating systems, and the pirus.
Pizza. You can deliver pizza, you can deliver products, but you cannot deliver justice, community, or human values. Those items require all parties to participate.
Examples.
Juvinile Court. Allowed to try all non-violent youth crime in DC. The jurors are teenagers. The court can sentence offenders to jury duty. Trial by your peers. The kids buy into the justice because they ARE the justice system. And they start to behave.
The Homecommers. People who didn't want to be called ex-cons. Started volunteering for community service. Cut recidivisim by huge amounts.
Operating system.
Our economy is based on so much more than money, but money is currently the only measure.
The problem with money. Money values things that are rare. Common things have little or no economic value. Thus, the things which make us human, which are intrinsic to all humanity, which are found in every person, have no monetary value.
Pirus.
Need to build a two-fuel economy. We still need money, but that should be the gas, the bit that gets used the least and is only there when the other just doesn't quite make it. The other, the respect for every human's worth, should be the main fuel.
That ended his talk. But one of the questions brought out another fantastic zinger. Mr. Cahn, after pointing out that public officials are the only professionals who are not required to act according to the best knowledge (malpractice in doctors, forget the term for attorneys, also applies to engineers, etc).
The way to show discriminatory behavor by courts is NOT to look backwards at cases tried (more blacks then whites sent to jail, etc), but forwards. Make them aware of what best practices are, what works, and what consequences different options have. Then, if they don't change, you can show that they have INTENDED the discriminatory outcomes.
He has three topics: pizza, operating systems, and the pirus.
Pizza. You can deliver pizza, you can deliver products, but you cannot deliver justice, community, or human values. Those items require all parties to participate.
Examples.
Juvinile Court. Allowed to try all non-violent youth crime in DC. The jurors are teenagers. The court can sentence offenders to jury duty. Trial by your peers. The kids buy into the justice because they ARE the justice system. And they start to behave.
The Homecommers. People who didn't want to be called ex-cons. Started volunteering for community service. Cut recidivisim by huge amounts.
Operating system.
Our economy is based on so much more than money, but money is currently the only measure.
The problem with money. Money values things that are rare. Common things have little or no economic value. Thus, the things which make us human, which are intrinsic to all humanity, which are found in every person, have no monetary value.
Pirus.
Need to build a two-fuel economy. We still need money, but that should be the gas, the bit that gets used the least and is only there when the other just doesn't quite make it. The other, the respect for every human's worth, should be the main fuel.
That ended his talk. But one of the questions brought out another fantastic zinger. Mr. Cahn, after pointing out that public officials are the only professionals who are not required to act according to the best knowledge (malpractice in doctors, forget the term for attorneys, also applies to engineers, etc).
The way to show discriminatory behavor by courts is NOT to look backwards at cases tried (more blacks then whites sent to jail, etc), but forwards. Make them aware of what best practices are, what works, and what consequences different options have. Then, if they don't change, you can show that they have INTENDED the discriminatory outcomes.
Diane Coyle
Economist, wrote some books on sustainable growth. Lots of quick, focused answers which support her view and ignore any difficulties raised by the questioner.
An idea from the discussion (not hers): Capitalism gains much of its legitimacy from the claim that it improves the lives of everyone. But in the last years* it has only improved the lot of the upper few percent. Is capitalism facing a crisis of legitimacy?
*US incomes for middle class stable or declining since the 70's (that is 40 years now, two generations). Other examples from other countries, I am sure.
What this ignores is the tremendous gains in quality and variety of stuff. Cell phones, internet, etc all are near universally accessible now. The possibilities offered to the poor are much greater than they were 40 years ago.
She disagrees with the claim that increasing GDP does not lead to increasing happiness, noting that happiness is measured on a fixed scale while GDP can (theoretically) grow without limit. If one compares log(GDP) [which does have a limit] with happiness, then increasing GDP does associate with increasing happiness.
Need to work on my rant on this topic...
Next idea: Our society is suffering from a lack of faith in the future. No sense of progress, unlike (say) the Victorian age. This is another topic to develop further...
An idea from the discussion (not hers): Capitalism gains much of its legitimacy from the claim that it improves the lives of everyone. But in the last years* it has only improved the lot of the upper few percent. Is capitalism facing a crisis of legitimacy?
*US incomes for middle class stable or declining since the 70's (that is 40 years now, two generations). Other examples from other countries, I am sure.
What this ignores is the tremendous gains in quality and variety of stuff. Cell phones, internet, etc all are near universally accessible now. The possibilities offered to the poor are much greater than they were 40 years ago.
She disagrees with the claim that increasing GDP does not lead to increasing happiness, noting that happiness is measured on a fixed scale while GDP can (theoretically) grow without limit. If one compares log(GDP) [which does have a limit] with happiness, then increasing GDP does associate with increasing happiness.
Need to work on my rant on this topic...
Next idea: Our society is suffering from a lack of faith in the future. No sense of progress, unlike (say) the Victorian age. This is another topic to develop further...
Bruce Alexander
Studies drug addiction, and the associated social problems.
Considers the last 100 years to have been increasing in drug addiction problems (perhaps he missed the previous century? I really wonder if things have been getting worse, or if it is a steady state).
Suggests that the real problem is "homelessness of the soul" a beautiful phrase which captures the dissassociation in which people on the fringe live.
Considers the last 100 years to have been increasing in drug addiction problems (perhaps he missed the previous century? I really wonder if things have been getting worse, or if it is a steady state).
Suggests that the real problem is "homelessness of the soul" a beautiful phrase which captures the dissassociation in which people on the fringe live.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
re: republicans, the party of fear
I do think they are afraid, of many things and can't bring themselves to be risk takers in the name of love for the other. In a way I feel sorry for them. It is difficult to live fully when you are so driven to be self protective.
FDR said very soundly, The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
Blessings and love, mom
FDR said very soundly, The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
Blessings and love, mom
republicans, the party of fear
Dear Mom,
Gareth Cook's column in the Herald Trib ("Trusting your instincts") made me think of you. Bear with me, because it take a few points to build it up to where you come in.
He looks at what psychology has to say about morality, and starts with Jonathin Haidt's theory that everyone is born with 5 moral senses: fairness, not harming others, loyalty to group, respecting authority, and moral purity.
The next step is the observation that in today's US politics, liberals emphasize the first two of these, while conservatives use all 5 (with an emphasis on the last three). Gareth writes that several studies have shown that this is plausible. This allows one to argue that a liberal is really just a stunted conservative.
Gareth then goes on to look at new research which suggests that actually it goes the other way. The study was done by Jennifer Write, who reasons that if humans are inherently conservative, then all 5 would occur without effort. To test these, she gave people the standard moral values and political leanings tests, but constantly distracted the test takers. Then everyone responded like a liberal, only responding to the first two values.
Wright's conclusion is that the other three are threat responses. SO she (or is it Gareth) concludes that we are not a nation divided by basic moral values, but rather by fear.
Now this ties in to a comment you made several years ago. You said you didn't like the republicans because their message was all fear, all the time. I agreed, and we thought it was because they believed that if they could keep the country scared, they could keep power.
But perhaps it runs deeper than a political strategy. Maybe they project a message of fear because they are themselves in a state of fear.
Love,
+glenn
Gareth Cook's column in the Herald Trib ("Trusting your instincts") made me think of you. Bear with me, because it take a few points to build it up to where you come in.
He looks at what psychology has to say about morality, and starts with Jonathin Haidt's theory that everyone is born with 5 moral senses: fairness, not harming others, loyalty to group, respecting authority, and moral purity.
The next step is the observation that in today's US politics, liberals emphasize the first two of these, while conservatives use all 5 (with an emphasis on the last three). Gareth writes that several studies have shown that this is plausible. This allows one to argue that a liberal is really just a stunted conservative.
Gareth then goes on to look at new research which suggests that actually it goes the other way. The study was done by Jennifer Write, who reasons that if humans are inherently conservative, then all 5 would occur without effort. To test these, she gave people the standard moral values and political leanings tests, but constantly distracted the test takers. Then everyone responded like a liberal, only responding to the first two values.
Wright's conclusion is that the other three are threat responses. SO she (or is it Gareth) concludes that we are not a nation divided by basic moral values, but rather by fear.
Now this ties in to a comment you made several years ago. You said you didn't like the republicans because their message was all fear, all the time. I agreed, and we thought it was because they believed that if they could keep the country scared, they could keep power.
But perhaps it runs deeper than a political strategy. Maybe they project a message of fear because they are themselves in a state of fear.
Love,
+glenn
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
The solution to the world's economic crisis
The world economy is based on a model of continual growth. Even a fool recognizes that infinite growth is not sustainable in a finite space (ie, earth). The solution: virtual shoppers.
Virtual shoppers. An army of internet robot consumers. Infinite consumption, allowing for infinite growth.
New trend in eating-- web startups
a host of new consumer web startups have mushroomed to fill in some gaps and create interesting new ways for us to chow down. New companies like Gobble and Grubly create local peer-to-peer marketplaces for homecooked meals that are either delivered or available for pickup. these services help home cooks build up a reputation (and a little extra income). Kitchit’s aim is slightly different, to free those who actually make the food (the cooks) and bring them into our homes so that we can have friends over for dinner and turn our apartments and houses into restaurants.
Clipped from
http://techcrunch.com/2011/07/04/the-way-we-eat/
by semil shah
Clipped from
http://techcrunch.com/2011/07/04/the-way-we-eat/
by semil shah
re: re: Minnesota shutdown
Re-- student loans. The reason people should lend them thousands of money without collateral is that student loans are not covered by bankrupcy-- the only ways out (except paying them off, of course) are death or moving all of your assets out of US jurisdiction.
They figure they have on average a lifetimes worth of earnings they can garnish to get their money back, at 8.5% interest. Not bad, when inflation is running close to nil.
Did you know you can buy CDOs of student loans, just like the CDOs of house loans that caused some trouble a little while ago? But the thing with homeonwners is that they can default on the mortgage and your deathgrip becomes only a deathgrip on a house worth a fraction of the loan amount.
Now with a student loan, that deathgrip is a little more inclusive.
I am working on an essay titled "The Immorality of Debt", or rather I should be when not busy working on amphetamine (it is a hobby) [yes, that is a joke. I am working, as a hobby, on my second publication which demonstrates the harm that amphetamine usage causes to the brain and no, I am not one of the research subjects] or my zombie paper or my UW photo essay or my android apps which I should develop, oh, and did I forget that I am a father, husband, house-holder, and did someone mention that I also have a day job?
+glenn
They figure they have on average a lifetimes worth of earnings they can garnish to get their money back, at 8.5% interest. Not bad, when inflation is running close to nil.
Did you know you can buy CDOs of student loans, just like the CDOs of house loans that caused some trouble a little while ago? But the thing with homeonwners is that they can default on the mortgage and your deathgrip becomes only a deathgrip on a house worth a fraction of the loan amount.
Now with a student loan, that deathgrip is a little more inclusive.
I am working on an essay titled "The Immorality of Debt", or rather I should be when not busy working on amphetamine (it is a hobby) [yes, that is a joke. I am working, as a hobby, on my second publication which demonstrates the harm that amphetamine usage causes to the brain and no, I am not one of the research subjects] or my zombie paper or my UW photo essay or my android apps which I should develop, oh, and did I forget that I am a father, husband, house-holder, and did someone mention that I also have a day job?
+glenn
re: Minnesota shutdown
Hi, Glenn- Sounds like you and Puppy are in the same camp with respect to human nature. Yes, I agree about the advantages of a shut down. From my experience with Bethel students, mostly heritage Republicans, very few realize how big a positive role government has had in their lives. E.G., most women didn't realize there would be no women's athletic programs without Title 9 of the Civil Rights Act; they just hold that women's athletics is natural and right, so of course it's there, but not particularly as a policy result. Or student loan guarantees: Why shouldn't someone lend them thousands of dollars at low interest without collateral -- they're good people, after all, don't intend to default, and are spending it for a good cause. When they think of "gummimint" it's usually the things they disagree with.
Minnesota shutdown
The good that I hope comes out of the MN situation is that people realize they actually enjoy government services. Unlikely, but still one can always hope.
My counterexampe comes from a news story a year or two ago covering a gathering of the tea-party faithful. 90% of the people in attendance relied to a greater or lesser extent DIRECTLY on government support (medicade-paid scooters, etc) not to mention indirect, as in they drove on public roads to get to the event which was held in a public building etc yet seemed blind to the fact that they were calling for an elimination of these benefits.
I'd like to have a happier opinion of humanity but people make it so damn difficult.
+glenn
My counterexampe comes from a news story a year or two ago covering a gathering of the tea-party faithful. 90% of the people in attendance relied to a greater or lesser extent DIRECTLY on government support (medicade-paid scooters, etc) not to mention indirect, as in they drove on public roads to get to the event which was held in a public building etc yet seemed blind to the fact that they were calling for an elimination of these benefits.
I'd like to have a happier opinion of humanity but people make it so damn difficult.
+glenn
re: re: re: the Greeks
Hi, Glenn- Best explanation I heard was that money was moving into dollars as long as the Greek situation was unresolved, but that now that a temporary patch is in place (good for six months), the flow might reverse out of dollars and into euro; i.e., New York looked good in comparison with Athens.
Meanwhile the state of Minnesota is shut down, with no immediate likelihood of resolution. Odd that the Republicans, who presumably favor jobs, jobs, jobs, have just unemployed something like 30,000 people; and who presumably are most concerned about the business climate of the state, have just given it a big national black eye in that respect as well, since various licenses & other such services are no longer available. I put it down more to incompetence than explicit malice/hypocrisy, but the results are much the same. People are getting really disgusted; and given how well governed the state was in the last half century, it all seems so gratuitous. Oh, and did I mention that the legislators have decided to keep on paying their own salaries, even though everyone else is fired, arguing that since they are the ones who have to work on a solution they need to continue to get paid so that they can resolve the mess. That's the sort of thing that will really rile Minnesotans up, I hope, and I don't think they even realize how self-serving it sounds.
Meanwhile the state of Minnesota is shut down, with no immediate likelihood of resolution. Odd that the Republicans, who presumably favor jobs, jobs, jobs, have just unemployed something like 30,000 people; and who presumably are most concerned about the business climate of the state, have just given it a big national black eye in that respect as well, since various licenses & other such services are no longer available. I put it down more to incompetence than explicit malice/hypocrisy, but the results are much the same. People are getting really disgusted; and given how well governed the state was in the last half century, it all seems so gratuitous. Oh, and did I mention that the legislators have decided to keep on paying their own salaries, even though everyone else is fired, arguing that since they are the ones who have to work on a solution they need to continue to get paid so that they can resolve the mess. That's the sort of thing that will really rile Minnesotans up, I hope, and I don't think they even realize how self-serving it sounds.
re: re: the Greeks
Both. I am a bit surprised that rates on US bonds are so low. True, not alot of other good options, but there are other options.
re: the Greeks
Hi, Glenn- I also liked The Economist take: Greece can't pay its debts;
the US won't pay its debts. There's a big difference between the two. My
question: if you are the international bond market, which would you be more
wary of?
the US won't pay its debts. There's a big difference between the two. My
question: if you are the international bond market, which would you be more
wary of?
The greeks
Dear Tiger,
You asked my/Europe's opinion on the Greek crisis. Oh, for that glorious day when my opinion IS Europe's opinion!
The best comment I found on the bailout/austerity package is this:
“This is not a program to salvage the economy, it’s a program for pillage
before bankruptcy,” said Alexis Tsipras, head of the small opposition Left
Coalition.
He is right, of course. As anyone with sense can see, a Greek default is ineventible.
You asked my/Europe's opinion on the Greek crisis. Oh, for that glorious day when my opinion IS Europe's opinion!
The best comment I found on the bailout/austerity package is this:
“This is not a program to salvage the economy, it’s a program for pillage
before bankruptcy,” said Alexis Tsipras, head of the small opposition Left
Coalition.
He is right, of course. As anyone with sense can see, a Greek default is ineventible.
Monday, July 4, 2011
Arizona Shaman
The arizona shaman, surrounded by his cactus garden, cactus-baked and dried to the bone. Skin deep brown and deep wrinkled from years in the sun. A white man by birth, a cactus man by habit, belonging to no tribe but his own.
His wisdon is lies, but oh so convincing.
His wisdon is lies, but oh so convincing.
Heros and role models
My cousin died this year. Pancratic cancer. 3 months from diagnosis to dead. Just long enough to complete the journey.
He was older, just enough older that he had solved the problems and confusions of whatever age I was at, yet close enough in age that I could see in him how I wanted to be. Distant enough that I could not see his faults. I always looked up to him. Then, as adults, we lost touch.
He is the first of my generation to go on. As always, he is a pathfinder. If there was another side, he would be there waiting for me, still smiling with his gentle strength. This though gives me peace.
He was older, just enough older that he had solved the problems and confusions of whatever age I was at, yet close enough in age that I could see in him how I wanted to be. Distant enough that I could not see his faults. I always looked up to him. Then, as adults, we lost touch.
He is the first of my generation to go on. As always, he is a pathfinder. If there was another side, he would be there waiting for me, still smiling with his gentle strength. This though gives me peace.
Violence in books and movies
We have violence in books and movies because most of us will never kill, never find ourselves waking up one day with no memory of our past but discovering we are super-assassins trained at a CIA black-ops facility...
No, most of us experience this only vicariously, returning on Monday to our mundane jobs, filled with the vague dread that our hours and days are slipping away into mediocrity, never realizing that we of the day to day plodding are the real heros. The action stars may save civilization, but we are civilization, building it day by day, hour by hour, breath by breath
No, most of us experience this only vicariously, returning on Monday to our mundane jobs, filled with the vague dread that our hours and days are slipping away into mediocrity, never realizing that we of the day to day plodding are the real heros. The action stars may save civilization, but we are civilization, building it day by day, hour by hour, breath by breath
Thoughts from my sister
My sister sent the following, which she wrote after Katherine Jerrerts Schori visited her classroom:
K. Schori is the 26th Presiding Bishop of the Episcopal Church of the United States, and a Swede
Fri. June 24, 2011
Katherine Jefferts Schori (sp)
There are 2 Creation Stories. The first holds that Creation is good, and that after humans were created it was very good. The second tends to focus on what went wrong. Another Creation begins when Jesus is baptized and God pronounces, “This is my beloved Son in whom I am well pleased. “ Then Jesus begins his ministry.
What if we were to hear those words spoken by God to us?
KJS invites us to hear the words, and meditate upon them.
“You are my Beloved, in whom I am well pleased.”
She invites us to close our eyes and receive that message. She joins us in meditation and it fills the room with blessing.
The group processes with partners. Some noteworthy comments:
Teaching style models that of inquiry method. Present lesson (use story), spend time working with the lesson, reflect in small groups, then as a whole group. Did Jesus use this same approach?
Find the essentiality of the lesson. This is reflected in the workshop style of teaching in Fountas and Pinnell.
She presents the question to the entire group: “What if we approached everyone we encounter with the belief that they are beloved? What would happen?”
Observer changes outcome,
Vision of future: from Isaiah, everyone eats, no war
Start at vision and work backwards.
Accept what you see.
K. Schori is the 26th Presiding Bishop of the Episcopal Church of the United States, and a Swede
Fri. June 24, 2011
Katherine Jefferts Schori (sp)
There are 2 Creation Stories. The first holds that Creation is good, and that after humans were created it was very good. The second tends to focus on what went wrong. Another Creation begins when Jesus is baptized and God pronounces, “This is my beloved Son in whom I am well pleased. “ Then Jesus begins his ministry.
What if we were to hear those words spoken by God to us?
KJS invites us to hear the words, and meditate upon them.
“You are my Beloved, in whom I am well pleased.”
She invites us to close our eyes and receive that message. She joins us in meditation and it fills the room with blessing.
The group processes with partners. Some noteworthy comments:
Teaching style models that of inquiry method. Present lesson (use story), spend time working with the lesson, reflect in small groups, then as a whole group. Did Jesus use this same approach?
Find the essentiality of the lesson. This is reflected in the workshop style of teaching in Fountas and Pinnell.
She presents the question to the entire group: “What if we approached everyone we encounter with the belief that they are beloved? What would happen?”
Observer changes outcome,
Vision of future: from Isaiah, everyone eats, no war
Start at vision and work backwards.
Accept what you see.
Motivational coffee machine
Good morning, sir! You are our hero! We all look up to you! Here is your espresso!
--and other uses of AI.
See also this month's WIRED new vocab-- gladvertizing, mood-aware personal advertising. Now available with your morning cup of joe
--and other uses of AI.
See also this month's WIRED new vocab-- gladvertizing, mood-aware personal advertising. Now available with your morning cup of joe
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Finding different epochs in a DPM
A DPM is like a collection of poisson processes. We have data drawn from these processes which also contains covariates, such as case/control, age, date.
Use a random forest to fit the counting processes.
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