Time to dig out my emails to my dad from last spring, claiming that Max was right. I should do econ columns.
Here is Umair Haque making my point. To be fair, he is more eloquent than I was, but to be fair, he has the incentive to put the time into making it eloquent.
http://blogs.hbr.org/haque/2011/09/was_marx_right.html
Friday, September 30, 2011
Umair Haque rants
These are taken from his unofficial blog. The guy is in serious rant territory, but he is good at it
Everything below is a quote/copypaste from
Source: http://umairhaque.blogspot.com
Because the truly poisonous effect of industrial age institutions, by undercounting real costs, and overcounting real benefits, isn't merely that they limit us to creating fake, thin artificial value and ponzi-like hollow "profit" today--but, more perniciously, that they shatter the incentives for great achievement tomorrow. They crumple the human spirit, smash the human psyche, dull the human brain, and toxify the human heart
Hence, here's what a nation who wants to be tomorrow's powerhouse of prosperity really needs: a 21st century plan to reboot industrial age institutions. To reimagine and rethink the clunking, belching contraptions known as "GDP", "the corporation", "investment banks", "credit ratings", "jobs", "government", and more. To reimagine them as eudaimonic levers--tools that can amplify not the just "industrial output" of nations, but which can ignite and spark the highest human potential; levers that can raise people not merely into lowest-common-denominator faux-designer Jersey Shore material plenitude--but into meaningfully well lived lives. At it's worthiest, an economy is an engine not merely for "enrichment"--but for human prosperity.
We've forgotten what the economy's for. It's not a lowest-common-denominator tool for vulgar material plenitude, or a brain-dead mechanism for mere financial "enrichment"--but, at it's best, it's highest, it's most enlightened, it's fundamentally worthiest, an economy must be an engine of human prosperity: a eudaimonic lever. A lever strong enough to raise human potential to unseen--and perhaps even undreamt of--heights.
Here's what all the above really says: far from a wishful ideal, eudaimonia's a razor-sharp necessity. No society in which the returns to rent-seeking outweight those to creating, building, transforming, and bettering can prosper. No society in which people are treated as chattels to be bought and sold by and to the highest bidder can be said to meet any definition of human prosperity.
Everything below is a quote/copypaste from
Source: http://umairhaque.blogspot.com
Because the truly poisonous effect of industrial age institutions, by undercounting real costs, and overcounting real benefits, isn't merely that they limit us to creating fake, thin artificial value and ponzi-like hollow "profit" today--but, more perniciously, that they shatter the incentives for great achievement tomorrow. They crumple the human spirit, smash the human psyche, dull the human brain, and toxify the human heart
Hence, here's what a nation who wants to be tomorrow's powerhouse of prosperity really needs: a 21st century plan to reboot industrial age institutions. To reimagine and rethink the clunking, belching contraptions known as "GDP", "the corporation", "investment banks", "credit ratings", "jobs", "government", and more. To reimagine them as eudaimonic levers--tools that can amplify not the just "industrial output" of nations, but which can ignite and spark the highest human potential; levers that can raise people not merely into lowest-common-denominator faux-designer Jersey Shore material plenitude--but into meaningfully well lived lives. At it's worthiest, an economy is an engine not merely for "enrichment"--but for human prosperity.
We've forgotten what the economy's for. It's not a lowest-common-denominator tool for vulgar material plenitude, or a brain-dead mechanism for mere financial "enrichment"--but, at it's best, it's highest, it's most enlightened, it's fundamentally worthiest, an economy must be an engine of human prosperity: a eudaimonic lever. A lever strong enough to raise human potential to unseen--and perhaps even undreamt of--heights.
Here's what all the above really says: far from a wishful ideal, eudaimonia's a razor-sharp necessity. No society in which the returns to rent-seeking outweight those to creating, building, transforming, and bettering can prosper. No society in which people are treated as chattels to be bought and sold by and to the highest bidder can be said to meet any definition of human prosperity.
R Inferno
An advanced guide to the pitfalls of R programming, written in the style of Dante's inferno. Available from
www.burns-stat.com/pages/Tutor/R_inferno.pdf
Also, a tutorial on package development
documentation with roxygen
Unit testing with testthat
R CMD check -- automated checking
see https://github.com/hadley/devtools/wiki/
www.burns-stat.com/pages/Tutor/R_inferno.pdf
Also, a tutorial on package development
documentation with roxygen
Unit testing with testthat
R CMD check -- automated checking
see https://github.com/hadley/devtools/wiki/
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Modern pediatrics
The nature of disease is shifting. In the last century, it focused on diseases caused by agents (virus, bacteria, etc). The central question becomes preventing the spread of the organism.
Now the majority of disease is environmental. Pediatricians are facing an epidemic of asthma, obesity, endocrine disorders, formerly rare childhood cancers, ...
So how should mathematical epidemiology respond?
Now the majority of disease is environmental. Pediatricians are facing an epidemic of asthma, obesity, endocrine disorders, formerly rare childhood cancers, ...
So how should mathematical epidemiology respond?
Towards a new theory of statistics -- narrative form
People work by narrative and analogy.
Can we use narrative form to model/predict/measure trends?
I saw an article today saying the US bought into the EU debt crisis situation as applying to the situation in the US. On a narrative level, this is true, both the US and Europe are reported as named entitites, both are facing debt crisis, so it is easy for the US to extrapolate the EU narrative to describe their condition. On a factual level, of course, the differences are huge. But who considers facts?
Can we use narrative form to model/predict/measure trends?
I saw an article today saying the US bought into the EU debt crisis situation as applying to the situation in the US. On a narrative level, this is true, both the US and Europe are reported as named entitites, both are facing debt crisis, so it is easy for the US to extrapolate the EU narrative to describe their condition. On a factual level, of course, the differences are huge. But who considers facts?
Towards a new theory of statistics -- full data vs summary
Statistics started as the art of summarizing large amounts of data, with an additional goal of allowing comparisons between datasets.
Fischer-- the 'sufficient statistics', often two numbers which, combined with an assumption, are sufficient to fully describe a dataset (i.e. assume normality and measure mean and variance).
Statistics as data compression.
The need to summarize is a concession to the structure of our minds. A computer, with a different structure, can easily hold millions of points in its working memory. ( like B.B: Mesquita's use of game theory to predict negotiation outcomes).
How, then, should we do stats? In the end we DO need a summary, a conclusion.
Fischer-- the 'sufficient statistics', often two numbers which, combined with an assumption, are sufficient to fully describe a dataset (i.e. assume normality and measure mean and variance).
Statistics as data compression.
The need to summarize is a concession to the structure of our minds. A computer, with a different structure, can easily hold millions of points in its working memory. ( like B.B: Mesquita's use of game theory to predict negotiation outcomes).
How, then, should we do stats? In the end we DO need a summary, a conclusion.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Eben Bayer: Are mushrooms the new plastic?
Eben Bayer
His group uses mushroom mycelium to replace styrofoam packing materials. He can grow a custom-sized and fit packing block in 5 days. The technology is scaleable, robust, and runs on waste products.
Styrofoam and in fact all plastic is expensive, toxic, and does not decay. Mushroom based stuff has none of these flaws.
His group uses mushroom mycelium to replace styrofoam packing materials. He can grow a custom-sized and fit packing block in 5 days. The technology is scaleable, robust, and runs on waste products.
Styrofoam and in fact all plastic is expensive, toxic, and does not decay. Mushroom based stuff has none of these flaws.
Natalie Jeremijenko: The art of the eco-mindshift
Natalie Jeremijenko
Prescribes small-scale actions which positively change or monitor the environment.
Tadpoles to monitor water quality, but take it to the next level-- a tadpole walker, and the tadpole is named after the government official responsible for local water quality. You take your tadpole for a walk, your neighbors ask about it, everyone can monitor it...
The space in front of a fire hydrant is a no-parking space. So why not rip up the pavement and turn it into a mini-garden? If this were done for every fire hydrant in NY city area, it would trap enough of the runoff to filter almost all of the water which currently dumps toxins straight into the bay.
etc.
Prescribes small-scale actions which positively change or monitor the environment.
Tadpoles to monitor water quality, but take it to the next level-- a tadpole walker, and the tadpole is named after the government official responsible for local water quality. You take your tadpole for a walk, your neighbors ask about it, everyone can monitor it...
The space in front of a fire hydrant is a no-parking space. So why not rip up the pavement and turn it into a mini-garden? If this were done for every fire hydrant in NY city area, it would trap enough of the runoff to filter almost all of the water which currently dumps toxins straight into the bay.
etc.
talks
Two more non-inspiring TED talks on the way in. People spot a current trend and talk about it as though it was totally new and completely amazing, though it is nothing new at all. A surgeon/scientist uses an fMRI scanner to find evidence that brain areas which are associated with self-censoring (among many many many other functions) become less active when one is improvising, and that Brocca's area becomes active when two musicians are communicating via music.
He is, in other words, taking a fancy expensive machine to produce evidence for what musicians have known and claimed for year. Where is the breakthrough?
And a girl whining that we put too much trust in experts, that our brans get all different when we listen to an authority figure. She spoke as though she was a beautiful woman, so I understand why people want to listen to her.
He is, in other words, taking a fancy expensive machine to produce evidence for what musicians have known and claimed for year. Where is the breakthrough?
And a girl whining that we put too much trust in experts, that our brans get all different when we listen to an authority figure. She spoke as though she was a beautiful woman, so I understand why people want to listen to her.
Spirit Running
My cousin Charlie had talked me into it. It didn't take much talking, as I have a hard time resisting challenges. The Route du Vin semi-marathon in Remich. A 21 kilometer journey into the primitive side of my soul, a run towards the essence of manhood.
The first part of any contest is the training phase. My program consisted mainly of cognac and cigars. I can recommend this strategy highly. The people who spend hours each week pounding up and down the pavement, what do they earn? They aren't going to beat the Kenyans. They just make it that much farther they have to go to reach the end of what they can do.
The day was perfect. Sunshine, not a cloud to be seen, and temperatures in the mid 70s. We arrived in Remich early. Charlie runs on the US Navy system-- on time means an hour ahead of time. We immediately grabbed a cafe table at the starting line and ordered our drinks. His beautiful wife and daughter had come along as our support team. I appreciate the sacrifice they made for us that day, the long hours spent drinking beer in the warm sun, admiring the view of the river, the occasional bite of salty pretzel to refresh the pallet.
All too soon it was time for the race to start. Leaving the girls to pay the bill (another noble sacrifice on their part), we stepped onto the street to join the 1800 runners. It is special. You feel special. I knew I was not the star, but I was part of the show, the celebration. It was, in a small way, about me.
By kilometer 2 I knew I was fucked.
Our slow pace (~10 km/hr) was not able to save my legs. By 4 km they were tired. This was as far as I had run in 15 years, the threshold where boredom usually stopped me. I didn't want to do this run. I have never wanted to do this run. It was Charlie's idea. Why put up with the pain any more? The beer and pretzels were calling my name.
That was the first opponent. It went down easy. Less than 300 meters and the little whiney lazy voice was a forgotten lump of ectoplasm at the side of the road.
Things continued smoothly until kilometer 8. Determination had gotten me through the last four kilometers, but now my body was done. My hips hurt. My feet were sore. I was still breathing easy, but my muscles were not moving as fast or as far as they had been previously. This got me excited. This is what I had come for, to push past what my body could do. I turned to Charlie, misquoting the Twilight Zone opening monologue "I am now entering into a dimension not of time or space, but of the mind."
The next few minutes were bad. I could see what I was sure was the half-way point, thanks to a bend in the river, and I could see that it was not getting closer. It took several hundred meters of suffering. Then my metabolism changed. My muscles were drawing energy from a new source. Once again the road rose to meet my feet. I look at Charlie, and say "Second wind".
As the second wind carries me along, I notice that I am also using new muscle fibers. Hidden fibers in my legs which do not otherwise get used. This also is what I came for. It feels good. The pain feels good. It lets me know I am still alive.
Charlie was keeping track of our pace. As we round the half-way point, he tells me that there is still hope of finishing the course in the alloted time (they give 2.5 hours), "if we want to" that is, if we pick up the pace. I cannot do it. Or rather, I could increase the pace but it would only speed the time of collapse. Perhaps I should have, but I still nursed hopes of running until the clock ran out.
The second wind had carried me around the 1/2 way point. We were now one kilometer down the road home. I had come farther than I had expected, much farther than I had gone before, and was going strong. Mentally, anyway. I took a 100 meter walk break, then another (including a visit to a vineyard to "sample the grapes"). The second wind was winding down. I didn't want to end that walk break, but I knew I had to. And I did.
At the 12 km mark I was exhausted. I had been overheated since the 5th kilometer. My willpower was used up. I was not forcing my body forward, in fact "I" was only a fleeting shadow on the shreds of my consciousness. It was joy, the pure joy of life, unfiltered by consciousness or awareness, by any need to do the right thing, the smart thing, the moral thing, the strong thing, the weak thing, any thing. Except run.
This is what I had come for. This it means to be alive, fully man and fully animal. I had first outrun my body, then my will, and finally my ego. "Third wind" I told Charlie.
Just past 13 km. There is a voice in my head, crying, wanting to flop down in the grass. I recognize this little boy, and love him. And I know it is the voice of a boy. And I run. Feet pounding the pavement, the voice of a man in my head, comforting the boy, smiling at him, holding him, but not accepting the boy's view of reality. Run.
I feel my totem animal. I feel the heat of the sun, the heat in my body. Earlier in the race I had been sweating heavily, but not for the last half hour. I had adopted. The lactic acid in my blood, how is it different than the cobra venom in a badger's blood? It is a price you pay to get your snack. I wish I had felt the badger spirit stronger. Maybe next run.
Now I was running on pure spirit. Exulted, exhausted, loving the purity of the experience. The uniqueness of a body past its limit and still going. Of willpower torn to shreds yet still willing. Of pain and glory and the pure animal joy of being alive.
At 14 km we begin to consistently pass people, other runners who are now walking. I want to lift them with us, tell them that the spirit of the runner lives in them, enthuse them.
I experiment with a different pace. Bouncing, a touch of side to side motion. I alternate a few steps of this with a few steps of normal jogging. My hips are agonizing. The muscles are no longer holding the bones in the proper position in the joints.
15 km. My posture is still good, my breathing remains easy, my spirits are high. Then comes a serious twinge in my Achilles tendon, a short stab of pain. I know the difference between sore and injury, and fear I am one short step away from crossing that line*. For me, the race is done. But I don't want to stop. I have only just gotten to the place I want to be.
We walk until past the 18 km mark. Every step of the last kilometer has been pure torture to my feet. The support vans come by, and we wave them on, one after another. We are chatting with an English woman who claims to have been done in by the heat. We are in the shade now, and chill as the sweat dries on our bodies. I had tried to jog again twice, but couldn't even get the first step. My hip joints couldn't do it, can't lift the knee high enough to do more than hobble forward.
Somewhere past 19 kilometers the English girl and I catch the last support bus. Charlie decides to run it in. The bus is going the wrong way, continuing upriver 2km before turning back and driving us to the finishing court. I walk the remaining 100 meters between the barriers and across the finish line. I have the last time reported for the race, 2:54.44.
I turn in the chip, to find Charlie, Anne, and Caroline smiling at me. We walk to the car (another kilometer uphill, but I am slightly refreshed by the few minutes rest in the bus). A 20 minute drive home. My wife greets me with applause, and a huge roast with wine sauce. What more could a man want?
----------------------------
*We were running in barefoot shoes. The barefoot stride stresses the Achilles tendon. Yes, the tendon is designed for this. Running barefoot will, over time, make the tendon strong and happy. The operative words being "over time", not "pushing past the limit first time out." And my tendons have some damage from a previous experience.
The first part of any contest is the training phase. My program consisted mainly of cognac and cigars. I can recommend this strategy highly. The people who spend hours each week pounding up and down the pavement, what do they earn? They aren't going to beat the Kenyans. They just make it that much farther they have to go to reach the end of what they can do.
The day was perfect. Sunshine, not a cloud to be seen, and temperatures in the mid 70s. We arrived in Remich early. Charlie runs on the US Navy system-- on time means an hour ahead of time. We immediately grabbed a cafe table at the starting line and ordered our drinks. His beautiful wife and daughter had come along as our support team. I appreciate the sacrifice they made for us that day, the long hours spent drinking beer in the warm sun, admiring the view of the river, the occasional bite of salty pretzel to refresh the pallet.
All too soon it was time for the race to start. Leaving the girls to pay the bill (another noble sacrifice on their part), we stepped onto the street to join the 1800 runners. It is special. You feel special. I knew I was not the star, but I was part of the show, the celebration. It was, in a small way, about me.
By kilometer 2 I knew I was fucked.
Our slow pace (~10 km/hr) was not able to save my legs. By 4 km they were tired. This was as far as I had run in 15 years, the threshold where boredom usually stopped me. I didn't want to do this run. I have never wanted to do this run. It was Charlie's idea. Why put up with the pain any more? The beer and pretzels were calling my name.
That was the first opponent. It went down easy. Less than 300 meters and the little whiney lazy voice was a forgotten lump of ectoplasm at the side of the road.
Things continued smoothly until kilometer 8. Determination had gotten me through the last four kilometers, but now my body was done. My hips hurt. My feet were sore. I was still breathing easy, but my muscles were not moving as fast or as far as they had been previously. This got me excited. This is what I had come for, to push past what my body could do. I turned to Charlie, misquoting the Twilight Zone opening monologue "I am now entering into a dimension not of time or space, but of the mind."
The next few minutes were bad. I could see what I was sure was the half-way point, thanks to a bend in the river, and I could see that it was not getting closer. It took several hundred meters of suffering. Then my metabolism changed. My muscles were drawing energy from a new source. Once again the road rose to meet my feet. I look at Charlie, and say "Second wind".
As the second wind carries me along, I notice that I am also using new muscle fibers. Hidden fibers in my legs which do not otherwise get used. This also is what I came for. It feels good. The pain feels good. It lets me know I am still alive.
Charlie was keeping track of our pace. As we round the half-way point, he tells me that there is still hope of finishing the course in the alloted time (they give 2.5 hours), "if we want to" that is, if we pick up the pace. I cannot do it. Or rather, I could increase the pace but it would only speed the time of collapse. Perhaps I should have, but I still nursed hopes of running until the clock ran out.
The second wind had carried me around the 1/2 way point. We were now one kilometer down the road home. I had come farther than I had expected, much farther than I had gone before, and was going strong. Mentally, anyway. I took a 100 meter walk break, then another (including a visit to a vineyard to "sample the grapes"). The second wind was winding down. I didn't want to end that walk break, but I knew I had to. And I did.
At the 12 km mark I was exhausted. I had been overheated since the 5th kilometer. My willpower was used up. I was not forcing my body forward, in fact "I" was only a fleeting shadow on the shreds of my consciousness. It was joy, the pure joy of life, unfiltered by consciousness or awareness, by any need to do the right thing, the smart thing, the moral thing, the strong thing, the weak thing, any thing. Except run.
This is what I had come for. This it means to be alive, fully man and fully animal. I had first outrun my body, then my will, and finally my ego. "Third wind" I told Charlie.
Just past 13 km. There is a voice in my head, crying, wanting to flop down in the grass. I recognize this little boy, and love him. And I know it is the voice of a boy. And I run. Feet pounding the pavement, the voice of a man in my head, comforting the boy, smiling at him, holding him, but not accepting the boy's view of reality. Run.
I feel my totem animal. I feel the heat of the sun, the heat in my body. Earlier in the race I had been sweating heavily, but not for the last half hour. I had adopted. The lactic acid in my blood, how is it different than the cobra venom in a badger's blood? It is a price you pay to get your snack. I wish I had felt the badger spirit stronger. Maybe next run.
Now I was running on pure spirit. Exulted, exhausted, loving the purity of the experience. The uniqueness of a body past its limit and still going. Of willpower torn to shreds yet still willing. Of pain and glory and the pure animal joy of being alive.
At 14 km we begin to consistently pass people, other runners who are now walking. I want to lift them with us, tell them that the spirit of the runner lives in them, enthuse them.
I experiment with a different pace. Bouncing, a touch of side to side motion. I alternate a few steps of this with a few steps of normal jogging. My hips are agonizing. The muscles are no longer holding the bones in the proper position in the joints.
15 km. My posture is still good, my breathing remains easy, my spirits are high. Then comes a serious twinge in my Achilles tendon, a short stab of pain. I know the difference between sore and injury, and fear I am one short step away from crossing that line*. For me, the race is done. But I don't want to stop. I have only just gotten to the place I want to be.
We walk until past the 18 km mark. Every step of the last kilometer has been pure torture to my feet. The support vans come by, and we wave them on, one after another. We are chatting with an English woman who claims to have been done in by the heat. We are in the shade now, and chill as the sweat dries on our bodies. I had tried to jog again twice, but couldn't even get the first step. My hip joints couldn't do it, can't lift the knee high enough to do more than hobble forward.
Somewhere past 19 kilometers the English girl and I catch the last support bus. Charlie decides to run it in. The bus is going the wrong way, continuing upriver 2km before turning back and driving us to the finishing court. I walk the remaining 100 meters between the barriers and across the finish line. I have the last time reported for the race, 2:54.44.
I turn in the chip, to find Charlie, Anne, and Caroline smiling at me. We walk to the car (another kilometer uphill, but I am slightly refreshed by the few minutes rest in the bus). A 20 minute drive home. My wife greets me with applause, and a huge roast with wine sauce. What more could a man want?
----------------------------
*We were running in barefoot shoes. The barefoot stride stresses the Achilles tendon. Yes, the tendon is designed for this. Running barefoot will, over time, make the tendon strong and happy. The operative words being "over time", not "pushing past the limit first time out." And my tendons have some damage from a previous experience.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Elaine Morgan says we evolved from aquatic apes
Elaine Morgan
Argues that the reason humans are so different from say chimps is that we love the water.
But there are a number of problems with the theory:
http://www.aquaticape.org/
Too bad, it makes a beautiful story
Argues that the reason humans are so different from say chimps is that we love the water.
But there are a number of problems with the theory:
http://www.aquaticape.org/
Too bad, it makes a beautiful story
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Ray Dalio quote
Ray Dalio runs Bridgewater, which makes its money on the "big trends"/macro analysis.
investing fads he’s witnessed since he began trading as a 12-year-old golf caddie: the Nifty-50 stock craze of the 1970s, the 1980 gold bubble and even the 60- 40 stock-to-bond mix. “Manias occur when there is group thinking,” Dalio says.
These days, the view from Bridgewater is dour. He divides the world into two groups: developed debtor nations that are deleveraging and emerging creditor countries that are leveraging up. After years of overspending financed by borrowing, the former are being forced to lower their debt relative to their income levels, constraining spending levels and employment gains.
Developed debtor countries, including Greece, Spain and Italy, that can’t print money to make it easier to service their debts and to make up for slow credit growth will have decade- long depressions and debt defaults. “We worry about Europe not being able to solve its problems,” Dalio says.
Dalio expects emerging creditor nations to be tomorrow’s economic leaders. Countries such as China and India that have currencies and monetary policy linked to those in the U.S. are experiencing inflationary bubbles because their interest rates are too low, he says. They will have to unlink from the U.S. or face intolerable conditions. Emerging economies will account for 70 percent of global GDP in 15 to 20 years versus 47 percent now.
Dalio views the August market turbulence as consistent with Bridgewater’s expectations. “Emerging creditor countries are trading more like blue chips; the U.S. is trading more like a country in decline,” the Daily Observations read on Aug. 8.
See also video at
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/video-rare-tv-interview-with-manager-of.html
investing fads he’s witnessed since he began trading as a 12-year-old golf caddie: the Nifty-50 stock craze of the 1970s, the 1980 gold bubble and even the 60- 40 stock-to-bond mix. “Manias occur when there is group thinking,” Dalio says.
These days, the view from Bridgewater is dour. He divides the world into two groups: developed debtor nations that are deleveraging and emerging creditor countries that are leveraging up. After years of overspending financed by borrowing, the former are being forced to lower their debt relative to their income levels, constraining spending levels and employment gains.
Developed debtor countries, including Greece, Spain and Italy, that can’t print money to make it easier to service their debts and to make up for slow credit growth will have decade- long depressions and debt defaults. “We worry about Europe not being able to solve its problems,” Dalio says.
Dalio expects emerging creditor nations to be tomorrow’s economic leaders. Countries such as China and India that have currencies and monetary policy linked to those in the U.S. are experiencing inflationary bubbles because their interest rates are too low, he says. They will have to unlink from the U.S. or face intolerable conditions. Emerging economies will account for 70 percent of global GDP in 15 to 20 years versus 47 percent now.
Dalio views the August market turbulence as consistent with Bridgewater’s expectations. “Emerging creditor countries are trading more like blue chips; the U.S. is trading more like a country in decline,” the Daily Observations read on Aug. 8.
See also video at
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/video-rare-tv-interview-with-manager-of.html
wither the economy?
One hypothesis, clipped from
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/how-rare-sp-dividend-yields-vs-treasuries/#comments
Historically, equities were seen as very risky assets with significant potential for principal loss. Therefore, investors demanded high dividend yields to help balance this risk. After all, they had to get cash out before a crappy manager tanks the company some years or decades hence.
However, once economists could scientifically prove that equities were not super-risky and those risks could be quantified and balanced, then the equities could be viewed as a “normal” asset. Meanwhile, the previous four decades of global war and empire collapse had proven that “low risk” assets, such as sovereign bonds were not necessarily as low risk as everybody thought.
With the gold standard, inflation was generally a localized phenomena that required active, intentional debasement of money or a major disaster like war that tanked the economy. The following decades also saw the rise of international fiat currencies, so a financial arms race began to outgrow assets faster than inflation could chew them up. Late in that process, executives began to get gargantuan options as compensation instead of cash for tax reasons, so the ability to grow the stock value at the expense of dividends became a personal quest with a huge pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for the lucky ones.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/how-rare-sp-dividend-yields-vs-treasuries/#comments
Historically, equities were seen as very risky assets with significant potential for principal loss. Therefore, investors demanded high dividend yields to help balance this risk. After all, they had to get cash out before a crappy manager tanks the company some years or decades hence.
However, once economists could scientifically prove that equities were not super-risky and those risks could be quantified and balanced, then the equities could be viewed as a “normal” asset. Meanwhile, the previous four decades of global war and empire collapse had proven that “low risk” assets, such as sovereign bonds were not necessarily as low risk as everybody thought.
With the gold standard, inflation was generally a localized phenomena that required active, intentional debasement of money or a major disaster like war that tanked the economy. The following decades also saw the rise of international fiat currencies, so a financial arms race began to outgrow assets faster than inflation could chew them up. Late in that process, executives began to get gargantuan options as compensation instead of cash for tax reasons, so the ability to grow the stock value at the expense of dividends became a personal quest with a huge pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for the lucky ones.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Warrior states
"In 1914 Europe (including the UK) ruled the world. By mid-century Europe was a morally and financially bankrupt force."
So much for empire
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Lincon
The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country.
Abraham Lincon, from the 1862 State of the Union, proposing the emancipation proclemation
Abraham Lincon, from the 1862 State of the Union, proposing the emancipation proclemation
Meaning of work
"To fulfill a dream, to be allowed to sweat over lonely labor, to be given a chance to create, is the meat and potatoes of life. The money is the gravy." —Bette Davis
The lady sums up what I love about science
The lady sums up what I love about science
Inline c++ functions in R code
Short article on how to do this here:
http://dirk.eddelbuettel.com/blog/2011/09/08/#rcpp_for_recursion
This uses the rcpp package
## inline to compile, load and link the C++ code
require(inline)
## we need a pure C/C++ function as the generated function
## will have a random identifier at the C++ level preventing
## us from direct recursive calls
incltxt <- ' int fibonacci(const int x) { if (x == 0) return(0); if (x == 1) return(1); return (fibonacci(x - 1)) + fibonacci(x - 2); }' ## now use the snippet above as well as one argument conversion ## in as well as out to provide Fibonacci numbers via C++ fibRcpp <- cxxfunction(signature(xs="int"), plugin="Rcpp", incl=incltxt, body =' int x = Rcpp::as(xs);
return Rcpp::wrap( fibonacci(x) );
')
This single R function call cxxfunction() takes the code embedded in the arguments to the body variable (for the core function) and the incltxt variable for the helper function we need to call. This helper function is needed for the recursion as cxxfunction() will use an randomized internal identifier for the function called from R preventing us from calling this (unknown) indentifier. But the rest of the algorithm is simple, and as beautiful as the initial recurrence. Three lines, three statements, and three cases for F(0), F(1) and the general case F(n) solved by recursive calls. This also illustrates how easy it is to get an integer from R to C++ and back: the as and wrap simply do the right thing converting to and from the SEXP types used internally by the C API of R
http://dirk.eddelbuettel.com/blog/2011/09/08/#rcpp_for_recursion
This uses the rcpp package
## inline to compile, load and link the C++ code
require(inline)
## we need a pure C/C++ function as the generated function
## will have a random identifier at the C++ level preventing
## us from direct recursive calls
incltxt <- ' int fibonacci(const int x) { if (x == 0) return(0); if (x == 1) return(1); return (fibonacci(x - 1)) + fibonacci(x - 2); }' ## now use the snippet above as well as one argument conversion ## in as well as out to provide Fibonacci numbers via C++ fibRcpp <- cxxfunction(signature(xs="int"), plugin="Rcpp", incl=incltxt, body =' int x = Rcpp::as
return Rcpp::wrap( fibonacci(x) );
')
This single R function call cxxfunction() takes the code embedded in the arguments to the body variable (for the core function) and the incltxt variable for the helper function we need to call. This helper function is needed for the recursion as cxxfunction() will use an randomized internal identifier for the function called from R preventing us from calling this (unknown) indentifier. But the rest of the algorithm is simple, and as beautiful as the initial recurrence. Three lines, three statements, and three cases for F(0), F(1) and the general case F(n) solved by recursive calls. This also illustrates how easy it is to get an integer from R to C++ and back: the as and wrap simply do the right thing converting to and from the SEXP types used internally by the C API of R
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Eva Vertes on cancer
Eva Vertes
Amazing girl, didn't start to read until she was 14, at which point she plunged into medicine. At age 17 she had the theory which she presented in this talk, that:
Cancer seems to be a response to injury. It may thus be a healing/self-repair mechanism which is badly controlled.
Skeletal muscle does not get cancer. Muscle "expects" frequent injury, and is thus very good at self repair.
A search of pub med shows that she (may) be involved in cancer research, but has not yet published on this theory directly:
Cell Stem Cell. 2010 Mar 5;6(3):251-64.
Endothelial cells are essential for the self-renewal and repopulation of Notch-dependent hematopoietic stem cells.
Butler JM, Nolan DJ, Vertes EL, Varnum-Finney B, Kobayashi H, Hooper AT, Seandel M, Shido K, White IA, Kobayashi M, Witte L, May C, Shawber C, Kimura Y, Kitajewski J, Rosenwaks Z, Bernstein ID, Rafii S.
Source
Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Department of Genetic Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY 10065, USA.
Abstract
Bone marrow endothelial cells (ECs) are essential for reconstitution of hematopoiesis, but their role in self-renewal of long-term hematopoietic stem cells (LT-HSCs) is unknown. We have developed angiogenic models to demonstrate that EC-derived angiocrine growth factors support in vitro self-renewal and in vivo repopulation of authentic LT-HSCs. In serum/cytokine-free cocultures, ECs, through direct cellular contact, stimulated incremental expansion of repopulating CD34(-)Flt3(-)cKit(+)Lineage(-)Sca1(+) LT-HSCs, which retained their self-renewal ability, as determined by single-cell and serial transplantation assays. Angiocrine expression of Notch ligands by ECs promoted proliferation and prevented exhaustion of LT-HSCs derived from wild-type, but not Notch1/Notch2-deficient, mice. In transgenic notch-reporter (TNR.Gfp) mice, regenerating TNR.Gfp(+) LT-HSCs were detected in cellular contact with sinusoidal ECs. Interference with angiocrine, but not perfusion, function of SECs impaired repopulation of TNR.Gfp(+) LT-HSCs. ECs establish an instructive vascular niche for clinical-scale expansion of LT-HSCs and a cellular platform to identify stem cell-active trophogens.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Dec 9;105(49):19288-93. Epub 2008 Nov 26.
Generation of a functional and durable vascular niche by the adenoviral E4ORF1 gene.
Seandel M, Butler JM, Kobayashi H, Hooper AT, White IA, Zhang F, Vertes EL, Kobayashi M, Zhang Y, Shmelkov SV, Hackett NR, Rabbany S, Boyer JL, Rafii S.
Source
Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY 10065, USA.
Abstract
Vascular cells contribute to organogenesis and tumorigenesis by producing unknown factors. Primary endothelial cells (PECs) provide an instructive platform for identifying factors that support stem cell and tumor homeostasis. However, long-term maintenance of PECs requires stimulation with cytokines and serum, resulting in loss of their angiogenic properties. To circumvent this hurdle, we have discovered that the adenoviral E4ORF1 gene product maintains long-term survival and facilitates organ-specific purification of PECs, while preserving their vascular repertoire for months, in serum/cytokine-free cultures. Lentiviral introduction of E4ORF1 into human PECs (E4ORF1(+) ECs) increased the long-term survival of these cells in serum/cytokine-free conditions, while preserving their in vivo angiogenic potential for tubulogenesis and sprouting. Although E4ORF1, in the absence of mitogenic signals, does not induce proliferation of ECs, stimulation with VEGF-A and/or FGF-2 induced expansion of E4ORF1(+) ECs in a contact-inhibited manner. Indeed, VEGF-A-induced phospho MAPK activation of E4ORF1(+) ECs is comparable with that of naive PECs, suggesting that the VEGF receptors remain functional upon E4ORF1 introduction. E4ORF1(+) ECs inoculated in implanted Matrigel plugs formed functional, patent, humanized microvessels that connected to the murine circulation. E4ORF1(+) ECs also incorporated into neo-vessels of human tumor xenotransplants and supported serum/cytokine-free expansion of leukemic and embryonal carcinoma cells. E4ORF1 augments survival of PECs in part by maintaining FGF-2/FGF-R1 signaling and through tonic Ser-473 phosphorylation of Akt, thereby activating the mTOR and NF-kappaB pathways. Therefore, E4ORF1(+) ECs establish an Akt-dependent durable vascular niche not only for expanding stem and tumor cells but also for interrogating the roles of vascular cells in regulating organ-specific vascularization and tumor neo-angiogenesis.
Amazing girl, didn't start to read until she was 14, at which point she plunged into medicine. At age 17 she had the theory which she presented in this talk, that:
Cancer seems to be a response to injury. It may thus be a healing/self-repair mechanism which is badly controlled.
Skeletal muscle does not get cancer. Muscle "expects" frequent injury, and is thus very good at self repair.
A search of pub med shows that she (may) be involved in cancer research, but has not yet published on this theory directly:
Cell Stem Cell. 2010 Mar 5;6(3):251-64.
Endothelial cells are essential for the self-renewal and repopulation of Notch-dependent hematopoietic stem cells.
Butler JM, Nolan DJ, Vertes EL, Varnum-Finney B, Kobayashi H, Hooper AT, Seandel M, Shido K, White IA, Kobayashi M, Witte L, May C, Shawber C, Kimura Y, Kitajewski J, Rosenwaks Z, Bernstein ID, Rafii S.
Source
Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Department of Genetic Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY 10065, USA.
Abstract
Bone marrow endothelial cells (ECs) are essential for reconstitution of hematopoiesis, but their role in self-renewal of long-term hematopoietic stem cells (LT-HSCs) is unknown. We have developed angiogenic models to demonstrate that EC-derived angiocrine growth factors support in vitro self-renewal and in vivo repopulation of authentic LT-HSCs. In serum/cytokine-free cocultures, ECs, through direct cellular contact, stimulated incremental expansion of repopulating CD34(-)Flt3(-)cKit(+)Lineage(-)Sca1(+) LT-HSCs, which retained their self-renewal ability, as determined by single-cell and serial transplantation assays. Angiocrine expression of Notch ligands by ECs promoted proliferation and prevented exhaustion of LT-HSCs derived from wild-type, but not Notch1/Notch2-deficient, mice. In transgenic notch-reporter (TNR.Gfp) mice, regenerating TNR.Gfp(+) LT-HSCs were detected in cellular contact with sinusoidal ECs. Interference with angiocrine, but not perfusion, function of SECs impaired repopulation of TNR.Gfp(+) LT-HSCs. ECs establish an instructive vascular niche for clinical-scale expansion of LT-HSCs and a cellular platform to identify stem cell-active trophogens.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Dec 9;105(49):19288-93. Epub 2008 Nov 26.
Generation of a functional and durable vascular niche by the adenoviral E4ORF1 gene.
Seandel M, Butler JM, Kobayashi H, Hooper AT, White IA, Zhang F, Vertes EL, Kobayashi M, Zhang Y, Shmelkov SV, Hackett NR, Rabbany S, Boyer JL, Rafii S.
Source
Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY 10065, USA.
Abstract
Vascular cells contribute to organogenesis and tumorigenesis by producing unknown factors. Primary endothelial cells (PECs) provide an instructive platform for identifying factors that support stem cell and tumor homeostasis. However, long-term maintenance of PECs requires stimulation with cytokines and serum, resulting in loss of their angiogenic properties. To circumvent this hurdle, we have discovered that the adenoviral E4ORF1 gene product maintains long-term survival and facilitates organ-specific purification of PECs, while preserving their vascular repertoire for months, in serum/cytokine-free cultures. Lentiviral introduction of E4ORF1 into human PECs (E4ORF1(+) ECs) increased the long-term survival of these cells in serum/cytokine-free conditions, while preserving their in vivo angiogenic potential for tubulogenesis and sprouting. Although E4ORF1, in the absence of mitogenic signals, does not induce proliferation of ECs, stimulation with VEGF-A and/or FGF-2 induced expansion of E4ORF1(+) ECs in a contact-inhibited manner. Indeed, VEGF-A-induced phospho MAPK activation of E4ORF1(+) ECs is comparable with that of naive PECs, suggesting that the VEGF receptors remain functional upon E4ORF1 introduction. E4ORF1(+) ECs inoculated in implanted Matrigel plugs formed functional, patent, humanized microvessels that connected to the murine circulation. E4ORF1(+) ECs also incorporated into neo-vessels of human tumor xenotransplants and supported serum/cytokine-free expansion of leukemic and embryonal carcinoma cells. E4ORF1 augments survival of PECs in part by maintaining FGF-2/FGF-R1 signaling and through tonic Ser-473 phosphorylation of Akt, thereby activating the mTOR and NF-kappaB pathways. Therefore, E4ORF1(+) ECs establish an Akt-dependent durable vascular niche not only for expanding stem and tumor cells but also for interrogating the roles of vascular cells in regulating organ-specific vascularization and tumor neo-angiogenesis.
Sasa Vucinic invests in free press
Sasa Vucinic
His big idea is to create a bond market to support charitable/non-profit work. He himself has been successful helping independent newspapers to stay afloat, by providing them with funding and with management experience. He claims a 97% payback rate on the loans he makes.
His big idea is to create a bond market to support charitable/non-profit work. He himself has been successful helping independent newspapers to stay afloat, by providing them with funding and with management experience. He claims a 97% payback rate on the loans he makes.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Poor america!
Dear World,
The following Steven Pearlstein column from the Sept 7 Washington Post paints the Republican party in a very bad light:
"Repeal the 20th century. Vote GOP."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/the-magical-world-of-voodoo-economists/2011/09/07/gIQARBiEIK_story.html
I agree with all of his sentiments, which I will summarize below. But before I do, I want to mention the worst bit. It isn't that this is what Republicans believe, it is that I haven't heard anything better from the democrats. Most of the press I see is (rightly) bashing the Republicans. But the Dems don't even get a mention. Don't they have any ideas?
Pearlstein writes that the Reps want to repeal basically all progress of the last century, including health care, financial regulation, environmental protection, labor/union protection, social security, medicare, Keynsesian Economics,
"In the Republican alternative universe, allowing an income tax cut for rich people to expire will “devastate” the U.S. economy, while letting a payroll tax cut for working people to expire would hardly be noticed. Cutting defense spending is economic folly; cutting food stamps for poor children an economic imperative."
The following Steven Pearlstein column from the Sept 7 Washington Post paints the Republican party in a very bad light:
"Repeal the 20th century. Vote GOP."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/the-magical-world-of-voodoo-economists/2011/09/07/gIQARBiEIK_story.html
I agree with all of his sentiments, which I will summarize below. But before I do, I want to mention the worst bit. It isn't that this is what Republicans believe, it is that I haven't heard anything better from the democrats. Most of the press I see is (rightly) bashing the Republicans. But the Dems don't even get a mention. Don't they have any ideas?
Pearlstein writes that the Reps want to repeal basically all progress of the last century, including health care, financial regulation, environmental protection, labor/union protection, social security, medicare, Keynsesian Economics,
"In the Republican alternative universe, allowing an income tax cut for rich people to expire will “devastate” the U.S. economy, while letting a payroll tax cut for working people to expire would hardly be noticed. Cutting defense spending is economic folly; cutting food stamps for poor children an economic imperative."
Friday, September 9, 2011
# hosts needed to maintain epidemic
Diseases with short duration and low transmission efficiencies require a large population to sustain themselves. Measles requires 300 000 individuals.
Herd or community animals get micro parasites, solitary creatures get macro parasites.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Infectious diseases in humans into
By Roy M Anderson and Robert M May, 1991
Death from epidemic disease far overwhelms death from war, up until the middle of the 20th century.
Smallpox won the war between the Spanish and the Aztecs.
Life expectancy rose from 25-30 years in 1700 to70-75 years in 1970 mainly from a decline in deaths induced by directly transmitted viral and bacterial infections.
Combination of better hygiene/nutrition and decreased pathogenicities of many childhood infections. Yet the frequency and magnitude of epidemics increased during the 18th and 19th centuries.
"a great deal of recent mathematical epidemiology has taken flight from its original moorings, and soars free from the constraints of data or relevance." -p9.
Simple models so we do not get lost in a snowstorm of parameters.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
The anatomy of a bubble
Summary of collapse points in markets
Ref also to the work of Didier Sornette
Informally, we can think of a bubble as an advance in an asset's price to levels that are "detached from fundamentals" - essentially, the primary motive for investing ceases to be the expectation of future cash flows or consumption, and instead centers on the expectation of further increases in price.
Formally, a bubble can be defined as a "non-fundamental" component of price which grows exponentially.
Mathematically, the bubble value is B_t, in the model Price_t=V_t + B_t, where V_t is discounted value of future dividends and B_t is an arbitrary constant s.t. B_(t+1)=(1+k)B_t where K is the long-term return.
Major parabolic bubbles also tend to include short-term fluctuations which include a log-periodic component-- corrections become shallower and more frequent within the parabolic trend which leads to a crash at a finite-time singularity.
"When you have to fit a sixth-order polynomial to capture price history because exponential growth is too conservative, you're probably close to a peak."
Ref also to the work of Didier Sornette
Informally, we can think of a bubble as an advance in an asset's price to levels that are "detached from fundamentals" - essentially, the primary motive for investing ceases to be the expectation of future cash flows or consumption, and instead centers on the expectation of further increases in price.
Formally, a bubble can be defined as a "non-fundamental" component of price which grows exponentially.
Mathematically, the bubble value is B_t, in the model Price_t=V_t + B_t, where V_t is discounted value of future dividends and B_t is an arbitrary constant s.t. B_(t+1)=(1+k)B_t where K is the long-term return.
Major parabolic bubbles also tend to include short-term fluctuations which include a log-periodic component-- corrections become shallower and more frequent within the parabolic trend which leads to a crash at a finite-time singularity.
"When you have to fit a sixth-order polynomial to capture price history because exponential growth is too conservative, you're probably close to a peak."
thoughts to mike
Dear Mike,
Great talking with you last night! I really want to move our conversations away from the collapse of civilization and on to the resiliance of cities, please help me with this.
I understand you want to have objective standards you can use to inform policy, for the benefit of all and not just because that state's senator is on the appropriations committee. You are doomed to failure with such an unrealistic attitute, you should know this by now. Wise up, bro!
Cities are incredibly resiliant. What kills them is when the resources which support them fail, but then civilization collapses. Anything else, and they just re-build. Can you name one city abandoned in the last 500 years because of a disaster? Heck, people still live in Rome two millenia after the barbarians sacked the place.
Phoenix will run out of water. The water problem is really really hard to solve. I think we will end up drinking Lake Superior, and water pipelines will be the next big business. Drink, baby, Drink!
Energy is not so hard. Like it or not, we are going to go nuclear, and build more efficient houses/buildings. Green architecture.
Food is an issue, read on vertical farming. Just as you can use a city as an energy souce (see efficient houses, above), so can you use it as a farm. Get the transport on non-(locally)-emitting technology (bikes or electric vehicles) and emmissions are not a problem, so the food is ok to eat.
Yes, you can and must think of cities as individuals, just as you think of people as individuals, but one must also realize that they form networks. The network rises or falls together.
Do not step on your brother! We do not step on your brother!!
The debt book: Read this interview. Have Cara preach a sermon on it. Have her send me her sermon notes, I would like to know what she thinks.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/what-is-debt-%E2%80%93-an-interview-with-economic-anthropologist-david-graeber.html
Tiger's thoughts on the next step in US politics:
Latest thoughts on the political process: Apparently there has been a sea change in public opinion in the last month, similar to 9/11 if not quite as intense, which the polls are only beginning to pick up. Due to the deficit extension circus, few people are able to take the US govt. seriously anymore. It's not a question of "throw the bums out," because the whole process is seen as broken. The political logic, it seems to me, is as follows: 9% projected unemployment essentially dooms the present administration. Perry & Romney cancel each other out, and both are seen as deeply complicit in the current political system, in which people have lost all faith. GOP strategists begin to realize neither has sufficient pull to prevail in what should be an easy win. They turn to Petraeus (if he's willing), as a new Eisenhower, now that he's being somewhat civilianized as CIA director (c.f. Eisenhower's brief stint as President of Columbia University), and the public goes along in the democratic equivalent of a military coup, in which "the politicians" as a whole are ousted. Not that logic, political or otherwise, always prevails, but this is how it looks to me at the present.
Oh, and collapse equals opportunity.
Cheers,
+glenn
--
-----------------------------------
Here miracles become marvels, and
marvels recurring wonders.
-- William Beebe
Dr. Glenn Lawyer
+352 661 967 244
Max-Planck-Institut für Informatik
Computational Biology and Applied Algorithmics
Campus E1 4
66123 Saarbrücken, Germany
http://bioinf.mpi-inf.mpg.de/~lawyer
Great talking with you last night! I really want to move our conversations away from the collapse of civilization and on to the resiliance of cities, please help me with this.
I understand you want to have objective standards you can use to inform policy, for the benefit of all and not just because that state's senator is on the appropriations committee. You are doomed to failure with such an unrealistic attitute, you should know this by now. Wise up, bro!
Cities are incredibly resiliant. What kills them is when the resources which support them fail, but then civilization collapses. Anything else, and they just re-build. Can you name one city abandoned in the last 500 years because of a disaster? Heck, people still live in Rome two millenia after the barbarians sacked the place.
Phoenix will run out of water. The water problem is really really hard to solve. I think we will end up drinking Lake Superior, and water pipelines will be the next big business. Drink, baby, Drink!
Energy is not so hard. Like it or not, we are going to go nuclear, and build more efficient houses/buildings. Green architecture.
Food is an issue, read on vertical farming. Just as you can use a city as an energy souce (see efficient houses, above), so can you use it as a farm. Get the transport on non-(locally)-emitting technology (bikes or electric vehicles) and emmissions are not a problem, so the food is ok to eat.
Yes, you can and must think of cities as individuals, just as you think of people as individuals, but one must also realize that they form networks. The network rises or falls together.
Do not step on your brother! We do not step on your brother!!
The debt book: Read this interview. Have Cara preach a sermon on it. Have her send me her sermon notes, I would like to know what she thinks.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/what-is-debt-%E2%80%93-an-interview-with-economic-anthropologist-david-graeber.html
Tiger's thoughts on the next step in US politics:
Latest thoughts on the political process: Apparently there has been a sea change in public opinion in the last month, similar to 9/11 if not quite as intense, which the polls are only beginning to pick up. Due to the deficit extension circus, few people are able to take the US govt. seriously anymore. It's not a question of "throw the bums out," because the whole process is seen as broken. The political logic, it seems to me, is as follows: 9% projected unemployment essentially dooms the present administration. Perry & Romney cancel each other out, and both are seen as deeply complicit in the current political system, in which people have lost all faith. GOP strategists begin to realize neither has sufficient pull to prevail in what should be an easy win. They turn to Petraeus (if he's willing), as a new Eisenhower, now that he's being somewhat civilianized as CIA director (c.f. Eisenhower's brief stint as President of Columbia University), and the public goes along in the democratic equivalent of a military coup, in which "the politicians" as a whole are ousted. Not that logic, political or otherwise, always prevails, but this is how it looks to me at the present.
Oh, and collapse equals opportunity.
Cheers,
+glenn
--
-----------------------------------
Here miracles become marvels, and
marvels recurring wonders.
-- William Beebe
Dr. Glenn Lawyer
+352 661 967 244
Max-Planck-Institut für Informatik
Computational Biology and Applied Algorithmics
Campus E1 4
66123 Saarbrücken, Germany
http://bioinf.mpi-inf.mpg.de/~lawyer
David Christian: Big history
David Christian
2nd law of thermodynamics insists on increasing entropy
The "big history" of the universe is increasing complexity
Energy becomes energy + matter
becomes stars
becomes planets
becomes chemistry
becomes DNA
becomes multicelled
becomes social/communicative
becomes societies
becomes a networked world
Increase in complexity adds an increase in fragility. It seems incredibly easy to get knocked one step back down the ladder
2nd law of thermodynamics insists on increasing entropy
The "big history" of the universe is increasing complexity
Energy becomes energy + matter
becomes stars
becomes planets
becomes chemistry
becomes DNA
becomes multicelled
becomes social/communicative
becomes societies
becomes a networked world
Increase in complexity adds an increase in fragility. It seems incredibly easy to get knocked one step back down the ladder
Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations
Geoffrey West
Organisms scale along a power law with exponent 3/4:
you need less energy, slower heartbeat, ect as mass increases
Economy of scale
Cities infrastrcuture scales with a power law of 0.85:
# gas station/inhabitant, (yes, but what about # restaurants/inhabitant? What makes the gas station different from a restaurant??)
miles of road/inhabitant
Cities outputs/dynamism scales with a power law of 1.15:
Wealth, salary, number of patents, "supercreatives"
The positive scaling in cities comes with a cost-- the exponential growth leads to collapse when the resources it is based on are used up. The solution is to innovate new resources. The challenge is that as the pace speeds up (as a result of the increasing rate of return), so does the time between collapses.
Reminds me of this Hussman Funds on collapse points in markets (specifically gold)
I summarize it here.
Organisms scale along a power law with exponent 3/4:
you need less energy, slower heartbeat, ect as mass increases
Economy of scale
Cities infrastrcuture scales with a power law of 0.85:
# gas station/inhabitant, (yes, but what about # restaurants/inhabitant? What makes the gas station different from a restaurant??)
miles of road/inhabitant
Cities outputs/dynamism scales with a power law of 1.15:
Wealth, salary, number of patents, "supercreatives"
The positive scaling in cities comes with a cost-- the exponential growth leads to collapse when the resources it is based on are used up. The solution is to innovate new resources. The challenge is that as the pace speeds up (as a result of the increasing rate of return), so does the time between collapses.
Reminds me of this Hussman Funds on collapse points in markets (specifically gold)
I summarize it here.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
2001-- beginnings of civ-- importance of walls
The common thought is that man began his ascent when he gained the use of tools.
For example, the classic opening to
2001 a space odyssey.
But what if instead it was the building of walls? I remember my indian summer, how much I lived in the flow and how difficult rational thought was. Walls, categories, inside and outside, perhaps this is the beginning of civilization.
For example, the classic opening to
2001 a space odyssey.
But what if instead it was the building of walls? I remember my indian summer, how much I lived in the flow and how difficult rational thought was. Walls, categories, inside and outside, perhaps this is the beginning of civilization.
Sam Harris: Science can answer moral questions
Sam Harris http://www.ted.com/talks/sam_harris_science_can_show_what_s_right.html
Recognize moral elegance, just as one recognises other forms of sophistication.
Given that the value is to reduce suffering in sentinent creatures, or to increase human well being, we can evaluate certain behaviours in terms of scientific knowledge to determine if they are acceptable out not.
Telling stories
Astrid is always eager to hear stories from the family past. How we learned that I am a honeybadger. Astrid battles sleep. Etc.
Can I use these story patterns in my talks?
Could I use them as bedtime stories?
Monday, September 5, 2011
ViSpA-- haplotype reconstruction
Inferring viral quasispecies spectra from 454 pyrosequencing reads
Astrovskaya et al, 2011, BMC Bioinformatics.
The authors propose using a graph-based method to reconstruct viral haplotypes in deep sequenced data. The introduction lists several other software tools for the job, and a coherent arguement as to why viral haplotype reconstruction is different than other deep sequencing problems
(de novo assembly are designed to reconstruct a single sequence, not a large number of closely related sequences; haplotype assembly "do not easily extend"; population phasing require additional data; metagenomic studies require large differences between species, and do not try to reconstruct genomes)
The method finds overlapping sections of reads and assembles a minimal path through the resulting graph. The probability that two overlapping reads belong to the same haplotype is a function of the length of overlap and the probability of a missmatch over that length.
They do not provide read error correction.
I don't see a clear advantage of their approach over Shorah until the point where they use Shorah to correct their reads. Then their algorithm shows large improvements.
On the other hand, I don't know how it will compare to the "global constraint" version of Shorah.
Astrovskaya et al, 2011, BMC Bioinformatics.
The authors propose using a graph-based method to reconstruct viral haplotypes in deep sequenced data. The introduction lists several other software tools for the job, and a coherent arguement as to why viral haplotype reconstruction is different than other deep sequencing problems
(de novo assembly are designed to reconstruct a single sequence, not a large number of closely related sequences; haplotype assembly "do not easily extend"; population phasing require additional data; metagenomic studies require large differences between species, and do not try to reconstruct genomes)
The method finds overlapping sections of reads and assembles a minimal path through the resulting graph. The probability that two overlapping reads belong to the same haplotype is a function of the length of overlap and the probability of a missmatch over that length.
They do not provide read error correction.
I don't see a clear advantage of their approach over Shorah until the point where they use Shorah to correct their reads. Then their algorithm shows large improvements.
On the other hand, I don't know how it will compare to the "global constraint" version of Shorah.
positive psychology
Followup to an earlier post.
Define 6 virtures:
wisdom, courage, humanity, justice, temperance, and transcendence.
How do we build these?
http://www.amazon.com/Character-Strengths-Virtues-Handbook-Classification/
Assesment quizzes:
http://www.authentichappiness.sas.upenn.edu/Default.aspx
Define 6 virtures:
wisdom, courage, humanity, justice, temperance, and transcendence.
How do we build these?
http://www.amazon.com/Character-Strengths-Virtues-Handbook-Classification/
Assesment quizzes:
http://www.authentichappiness.sas.upenn.edu/Default.aspx
Joe DeRisi hunts for new virus in Africa
Joe DeRisi
Cooperates with bushmeat hunters in africa to get blood samples from them and their kill, to allow surveiliance for new disease
Cooperates with bushmeat hunters in africa to get blood samples from them and their kill, to allow surveiliance for new disease
Thursday, September 1, 2011
re: immorality of debt
Hi, Glenn-
What you say about Nietzche is interesting. I am also seeing a new relevance to Marx's predictions on the accumulation of more & more capital in fewer & fewer hands, leading to a crisis of overproduction as the 98% left out don't have enough money to buy what the system produces, which seems to be the direction in which we are heading.
What you say about Nietzche is interesting. I am also seeing a new relevance to Marx's predictions on the accumulation of more & more capital in fewer & fewer hands, leading to a crisis of overproduction as the 98% left out don't have enough money to buy what the system produces, which seems to be the direction in which we are heading.
Immorality of debt
I am linking you to another article which explores my "immorality of debt" hypothesis, the article I probably never will write. Sigh. A quick quote:
"Friedrich Nietzsche famously argued that all morality was founded upon the extraction of debt under the threat of violence. The sense of obligation instilled in the debtor was, for Nietzsche, the origin of civilisation itself."
So the big N has returned to the equation. Hard to get away from his pernacious influence.
The article is here, and the answer to the question in the title is (more or less) TRUE (though more less than more), and also the asking of the question is why I want to write the immorality of debt article.
Ah, the link:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/are-most-americans-debt-slaves/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/what-is-debt-%E2%80%93-an-interview-with-economic-anthropologist-david-graeber.html
"Friedrich Nietzsche famously argued that all morality was founded upon the extraction of debt under the threat of violence. The sense of obligation instilled in the debtor was, for Nietzsche, the origin of civilisation itself."
So the big N has returned to the equation. Hard to get away from his pernacious influence.
The article is here, and the answer to the question in the title is (more or less) TRUE (though more less than more), and also the asking of the question is why I want to write the immorality of debt article.
Ah, the link:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/are-most-americans-debt-slaves/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/what-is-debt-%E2%80%93-an-interview-with-economic-anthropologist-david-graeber.html
International Errorism
Human incompetence. Another reason why the world is going to hell in a handbasket.
Cloud computing
Takeaways from "It Just Works" by MG Siegler.
Apple's vision: the cloud is in the background, and doesn't matter to the user. The user grabs their device, and their "stuff" is on it. "You’re working on a document in Pages on your iPad, you move over to Pages on your Mac, and there it is. It even remembers where you were last editing. You download a song to your iPhone, you pick up your iPad, there it is."
You don't find things by rooting around in a file system, but by tagging/search, or by rooting around in a consistent (across devices) interface-thingie.
Apple's vision: the cloud is in the background, and doesn't matter to the user. The user grabs their device, and their "stuff" is on it. "You’re working on a document in Pages on your iPad, you move over to Pages on your Mac, and there it is. It even remembers where you were last editing. You download a song to your iPhone, you pick up your iPad, there it is."
You don't find things by rooting around in a file system, but by tagging/search, or by rooting around in a consistent (across devices) interface-thingie.
Steven Pinker on the myth of violence (2007)
Steven Pinker
Dr. Pinker shows that humanity has become less violent over the centuries and millenium. He structures this as a fractal, presenting first millenial differences (hunter-gatherer vs modern), century, decade, and yearly. This structure works well.
He spends the last few minutes explaining the phenomenon. He claims "no-one understands it,but several people have a clue". He then lists 4 theories:
Hobbes Leviathan-- giving power of violence to the state means individuals do not need it
Positive sum games-- other people are worth more to me alive than dead. "Another reason not to bomb the Japanese is that they built my minivan"
My insight is that we have more older men around, and more power to women. I have so much more empathy than I did when younger, and so much less taste for violence. I no longer need to prove myself in combat, I have done so, and passed.
The demographic shift also has a huge influence
Dr. Pinker shows that humanity has become less violent over the centuries and millenium. He structures this as a fractal, presenting first millenial differences (hunter-gatherer vs modern), century, decade, and yearly. This structure works well.
He spends the last few minutes explaining the phenomenon. He claims "no-one understands it,but several people have a clue". He then lists 4 theories:
Hobbes Leviathan-- giving power of violence to the state means individuals do not need it
Positive sum games-- other people are worth more to me alive than dead. "Another reason not to bomb the Japanese is that they built my minivan"
My insight is that we have more older men around, and more power to women. I have so much more empathy than I did when younger, and so much less taste for violence. I no longer need to prove myself in combat, I have done so, and passed.
The demographic shift also has a huge influence
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)