Still diving down, some pundits expect this to continue for the next few months. Yet most see a long-term uptrend, and view this as a correction at best.
So the way to buy in is to wait for the price to pierce some moving average to the upside, right?
Along with GLD, suggestions include silver weaton and great panther.
Also, gold mining stocks, which have been punished this year, could payout big.
Lots of hype at:
http://www.theaureport.com/
Some claim the silver/gold ratio should be 16:1 (currently it is ~40:1),
there is roughly 16 times more silver in the ground than gold, thus the silver price will eventually reach one-sixteenth the price of gold.
which implies silver is currently undervalued by 2/3rds
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN:TSX; IVN:NYSE)
Hunter Bay Minerals Plc (HBY:TSX.V)
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Platz-- German pre-fab homes
Gorgeous design, efficient, and all the info is in german.
http://platz.de/auctores/scs/imc
http://platz.de/auctores/scs/imc
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Euro-- they don't want a resolution
An eye-opening article by Jeff Miller
The Euro crisis will not be solved any time soon. Why not? Because politicians live off of crisis.
The EU cannot create wars (unlike certain other countries), so they do this instead, giving them the excuse to push through policies which would otherwise be impossible.
I should probably spend some time on Miller's blog...
The Euro crisis will not be solved any time soon. Why not? Because politicians live off of crisis.
The EU cannot create wars (unlike certain other countries), so they do this instead, giving them the excuse to push through policies which would otherwise be impossible.
I should probably spend some time on Miller's blog...
Monday, December 19, 2011
Britta Riley: A garden in my apartment
Britta Riley: A garden in my apartment
Wanted to grow her own food, in a NY city apartment. Started window gardens, which use hydroponics. She can grow a salad a week.
Hydroponic technology is rapidly being patened away from us. Her website is an open-source collaboration of designs and technologies, an effort to keep hydroponics in the public domain.
She calls it R&DIY, instead of R&D.
Wanted to grow her own food, in a NY city apartment. Started window gardens, which use hydroponics. She can grow a salad a week.
Hydroponic technology is rapidly being patened away from us. Her website is an open-source collaboration of designs and technologies, an effort to keep hydroponics in the public domain.
She calls it R&DIY, instead of R&D.
Luis von Ahn: Massive-scale online collaboration
Luis von Ahn
The guy who came up with capchas. His next idea was to use them to digitally scan books. When you have two words, one is known to the computer and the other is the scan. Average the scan word over 10 respondants to get the "correct" interpretation.
His next project: Duolingo. You learn a language for "free", and in the mean time translate the internet. The key is to average user interpretations to arrive at a correcdt translation.
The guy who came up with capchas. His next idea was to use them to digitally scan books. When you have two words, one is known to the computer and the other is the scan. Average the scan word over 10 respondants to get the "correct" interpretation.
His next project: Duolingo. You learn a language for "free", and in the mean time translate the internet. The key is to average user interpretations to arrive at a correcdt translation.
Annie Murphy Paul: What we learn before we're born
Annie Murphy Paul: What we learn before we're born
No surprizes here. The mother passes tons of information on the environment to her unborn fetus, which then adopts to it.
I post this in support of my theory that birthplace has huge determinants in one's comfort zone, a comfort zone I have been living outside of for many too many years. Poor badger
No surprizes here. The mother passes tons of information on the environment to her unborn fetus, which then adopts to it.
I post this in support of my theory that birthplace has huge determinants in one's comfort zone, a comfort zone I have been living outside of for many too many years. Poor badger
Sunday, December 18, 2011
My winter king
This is a poem by Astrid, about a snow leopard.
Come here my winter king.
Your breath makes the bells ring
One look from your eyes and I'm in love
Come now, I'll leave my glove
I can stroke your soft winter fur
your jet black spots, and hear lovely purr.
Come here my winter king.
Come here my winter king.
Your breath makes the bells ring
One look from your eyes and I'm in love
Come now, I'll leave my glove
I can stroke your soft winter fur
your jet black spots, and hear lovely purr.
Come here my winter king.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Molecular Clocks and the puzzle of RNA virus origins --Holmes 2003
Journal of Virology
Dr. Holmes investigates why phylogenetic dating of viral speciation implies that the major RNA virusus originated not more than 50,000 years ago, yet their hosts speciated many millions of years in the past.
One problem is the rate of replication, which is roughly 10^-3 subs/site/year (21), which further implies the average distance between any two sequences is limited to 500 years (since after 1000 years, every position will have mutated). Better to look at non-synonymous sites, assume the rate is 10^-5, and put the divergence at 50K years ago. Voiala.
So, do virus change their mutation rate? Is it because once adopted to their host species, they don't drift very much? No. Adoptation does not give RNA a repair mechanism, and mutation at synonymous sites doesn't slow down.
Perhaps different parts of the genome mutate at different speeds? Likely:
Helpful to use a (skewed) gamma distribution to allow the rate to vary along the chromosone.
Dr. Holmes investigates why phylogenetic dating of viral speciation implies that the major RNA virusus originated not more than 50,000 years ago, yet their hosts speciated many millions of years in the past.
One problem is the rate of replication, which is roughly 10^-3 subs/site/year (21), which further implies the average distance between any two sequences is limited to 500 years (since after 1000 years, every position will have mutated). Better to look at non-synonymous sites, assume the rate is 10^-5, and put the divergence at 50K years ago. Voiala.
So, do virus change their mutation rate? Is it because once adopted to their host species, they don't drift very much? No. Adoptation does not give RNA a repair mechanism, and mutation at synonymous sites doesn't slow down.
Perhaps different parts of the genome mutate at different speeds? Likely:
An important evolutionary by-product of these high mutation rates is a cap on genome size; genomes larger than ∼15 kb are rarely produced because of the “error threshold,” the generation of a prohibitive number of deleterious mutations (11). Since viral genome sizes are limited, sequence regions will encode multiple functions and individual mutations will often have pleiotropic effects, such as those influencing both cell tropism and immune evasion (1). This, in turn, may mean that there are relatively few evolutionary pathways that can be followed by RNA viruses; otherwise, at least one key function will be disrupted, so that mutations preferentially accumulate at that small proportion of sites that are free to vary. Supportive evidence for such a model is the frequency with which convergent evolution is observed for RNA viruses (4, 7, 13), as expected if only a limited number of evolutionary pathways are viable, and the evidence that RNA (37) and protein secondary structure (22) can act as constraints against sequence change.
Helpful to use a (skewed) gamma distribution to allow the rate to vary along the chromosone.
low α values (i.e., <1) mean that the sequence alignment is composed of both very quickly and very slowly evolving sites, and this appears to be true in most cases.
the three groups of flaviviruses, the mean d at these sites, corrected for multiple substitutions but without a gamma distribution, is ∼0.25 and is similar to the nonsynonymous distance estimated previously. The maximum likelihood estimate for the shape parameter of the gamma distribution for these data is highly skewed (α = 0.34). As expected, evolutionary distances increase if they are now estimated using this gamma model (mean d = 0.43), although not sufficiently to make a major difference to estimated divergence times, which only increase to a little over 20,000 years (again assuming a rate of 10−5 substitutions/site/year). However, more dramatic results are obtained if an even more skewed gamma distribution is used. If α = 0.1, then d increases to 2.3, so that maximum divergence times will be in the region of 100,000 years ago
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Pox
Smallpox like all pox virus has its origin in African rodents. Camel pox is the closest extant variant.
Falciparum malaria was originally a bird parasite. see refs 12 &13.
Ar see also ref 21
rank-aware clustering
By Julia Stoyanovich at U Penn
Example application: results from a search for dates on yahoo!singles
Often a correlation between ranking funciton & selection criteria results in tremendous homogineity in the top results.
Note that the correlations may be localized: age & education correlate up to age 30, while age & income correlate up to age 50.
BARAC Bottom-up Algorirthm for Rank Aware Clustering
an elaboration of subspace clutering (review: Parsons SIGKDD 2006)
One cannot always use i.e. PCA to reduce dimensions, as one cluster might occupy dims a&b while a second is in b&c. Subspace clustering solves this.
Three steps to algo:
Interval dominance If Theta percent (Theta in 0.5 to 1) of the top N results in the join of interval 1 and 2 are also in the top N of interval 1, then 1 dominates 2. (top(I_1,N)) intersect (top(I_1 + I_2,N))/N > Theta
Ranked subspace A subspace is a collection of intervals. Compare the top N values in the subspace to the top N values of the intervals-- we are not looking for density of points, but for density of winning points.
Want at least Q items from each interval, where Q can be the M ranks or sum of ranking score (in case the score the rank is based on has high variance)
Example application: results from a search for dates on yahoo!singles
Often a correlation between ranking funciton & selection criteria results in tremendous homogineity in the top results.
Note that the correlations may be localized: age & education correlate up to age 30, while age & income correlate up to age 50.
BARAC Bottom-up Algorirthm for Rank Aware Clustering
an elaboration of subspace clutering (review: Parsons SIGKDD 2006)
One cannot always use i.e. PCA to reduce dimensions, as one cluster might occupy dims a&b while a second is in b&c. Subspace clustering solves this.
Three steps to algo:
- Build grid Split each dimension into intervals, rank all items in that interval. Runs in ~ linear time
- Merge intervals For each neighboring set of intervals, merge them unless one dominates the other. ~ constant time. Only for dimensions with an ordering (?)
- Join dimensions Build K-dimensional clusters from (K-1)-dim clusters, using a quality score derived from the rankings. ~ exponential time, but in practice polinomial and manageable.
Interval dominance If Theta percent (Theta in 0.5 to 1) of the top N results in the join of interval 1 and 2 are also in the top N of interval 1, then 1 dominates 2. (top(I_1,N)) intersect (top(I_1 + I_2,N))/N > Theta
Ranked subspace A subspace is a collection of intervals. Compare the top N values in the subspace to the top N values of the intervals-- we are not looking for density of points, but for density of winning points.
Want at least Q items from each interval, where Q can be the M ranks or sum of ranking score (in case the score the rank is based on has high variance)
Trigger control/dry fire training
From Grey's Guns
We want to train our unconcious mind. Answer: visualization.
With your eyes closed:
Visualize a sight picture on your chosen target in your mind while simultaneously pressing through on the trigger. Feel the trigger, how it might creep and wiggle under finger pressure. Try to get as close to dropping the hammer as you can, and hold it as you watch those imagined sights. You should ignore the target if your mind wants to stick one down there for you to look at instead.
Watch the sights in your mind’s eye and you’ll see them dip, jerk and do all sorts of things. Feel the recoil and blink, perhaps. That’s great! Let your visualized shooting session seem as real as possible without too much conscious direction. Just allow yourself to come back to the sights, focus on the front blade, align them and press.
Be focused on the process of operating the trigger, and learn to press through without tension, convulsive grasping of the hand, jerking or other funny stuff in response to the appearance of aligned sights in your mind.
Then, go the the range. You must allow your subconscious to do it for you, since that’s what that last two weeks of intense repetition was for. Trust me, you’ve learned it. To actually DO it, you just occupy the ego with something safe it can do to help, rather than letting it take over in a doomed effort to make it happen and be the star of the show “now that it counts.”
So, give the ego a job: let it watch the sights, aligned in the notch just as you’ve visualized. If you visualize the pistol firing when the sights appear aligned on the target, that’s what will happen. You have only to step (your ego) out of the way and watch that front sight.
You also need to have equal faith in your ability to call each shot, and know where it went based on what the sights were doing as they lifted off the target during recoil.
Calling shots at speed means using information from the sights to determine whether the previous shot hit or missed. There’s two ways to shoot: One is reactively, in which the sight picture is read on some conscious level and coordinated with a more or less sub-conscious action of trigger pull. That’s the “watch your front sight” school, and it works…sort of. The other is proactively, in which the sight picture is recalled on a lower-conscious level as verification that the subconscious saw what it needed to see when it broke the previous shot, while the subconscious is busy making the present one. This relates to the mode of observation that Enos and others describe. The conscious mind tends to linger in the just-past, not the present. If you ever wondered why some top shooters could do the things they do, this paragraph is really the whole enchilada.
We want to train our unconcious mind. Answer: visualization.
With your eyes closed:
Visualize a sight picture on your chosen target in your mind while simultaneously pressing through on the trigger. Feel the trigger, how it might creep and wiggle under finger pressure. Try to get as close to dropping the hammer as you can, and hold it as you watch those imagined sights. You should ignore the target if your mind wants to stick one down there for you to look at instead.
Watch the sights in your mind’s eye and you’ll see them dip, jerk and do all sorts of things. Feel the recoil and blink, perhaps. That’s great! Let your visualized shooting session seem as real as possible without too much conscious direction. Just allow yourself to come back to the sights, focus on the front blade, align them and press.
Be focused on the process of operating the trigger, and learn to press through without tension, convulsive grasping of the hand, jerking or other funny stuff in response to the appearance of aligned sights in your mind.
Then, go the the range. You must allow your subconscious to do it for you, since that’s what that last two weeks of intense repetition was for. Trust me, you’ve learned it. To actually DO it, you just occupy the ego with something safe it can do to help, rather than letting it take over in a doomed effort to make it happen and be the star of the show “now that it counts.”
So, give the ego a job: let it watch the sights, aligned in the notch just as you’ve visualized. If you visualize the pistol firing when the sights appear aligned on the target, that’s what will happen. You have only to step (your ego) out of the way and watch that front sight.
You also need to have equal faith in your ability to call each shot, and know where it went based on what the sights were doing as they lifted off the target during recoil.
Calling shots at speed means using information from the sights to determine whether the previous shot hit or missed. There’s two ways to shoot: One is reactively, in which the sight picture is read on some conscious level and coordinated with a more or less sub-conscious action of trigger pull. That’s the “watch your front sight” school, and it works…sort of. The other is proactively, in which the sight picture is recalled on a lower-conscious level as verification that the subconscious saw what it needed to see when it broke the previous shot, while the subconscious is busy making the present one. This relates to the mode of observation that Enos and others describe. The conscious mind tends to linger in the just-past, not the present. If you ever wondered why some top shooters could do the things they do, this paragraph is really the whole enchilada.
Fast first shot with a DA
Unsorted clippings
Start from what is normally called the ready position. This is the point in the draw where the hands come together, just off center to the strong side at the upper part of your abdomen. At this point the pistol should be pointed at the target and the trigger finger is still off the trigger. From this point forward is where you start to gain speed with the double action first shot.
Drive the pistol directly to the target. Imagine there is a laser coming out of the barrel. As the pistol starts to move forward you should be able to pick up the position of the muzzle in your peripheral vision. As soon as you can see that the muzzle is on target, start pulling the trigger. This is where the speed of the first shot comes from. As the pistol goes out, the trigger comes back. Now it becomes a timing issue. As the pistol goes forward and comes up to your line of sight, you are trying to pull the trigger so that the hammer falls just as you clean up the sight picture. The last one to two inches of the presentation the sights should be almost perfect so if the shot breaks a little early you’re still going to hit the target.
Start from what is normally called the ready position. This is the point in the draw where the hands come together, just off center to the strong side at the upper part of your abdomen. At this point the pistol should be pointed at the target and the trigger finger is still off the trigger. From this point forward is where you start to gain speed with the double action first shot.
Drive the pistol directly to the target. Imagine there is a laser coming out of the barrel. As the pistol starts to move forward you should be able to pick up the position of the muzzle in your peripheral vision. As soon as you can see that the muzzle is on target, start pulling the trigger. This is where the speed of the first shot comes from. As the pistol goes out, the trigger comes back. Now it becomes a timing issue. As the pistol goes forward and comes up to your line of sight, you are trying to pull the trigger so that the hammer falls just as you clean up the sight picture. The last one to two inches of the presentation the sights should be almost perfect so if the shot breaks a little early you’re still going to hit the target.
Monday, December 12, 2011
what to buy??
CWS has a few interesting points, like stryker making a major raise to its dividend and oracle still being cheap in their minds.
Also found this list of the 1% of stocks which more than doubled last year:
http://ivanhoff.com/2011/12/08/1-of-all-liquid-stocks-doubled-ytd/
Also found this list of the 1% of stocks which more than doubled last year:
http://ivanhoff.com/2011/12/08/1-of-all-liquid-stocks-doubled-ytd/
R programming books
- A Little Book of R for Multivariate Analysis pdf
- A Little Book of R for Biomedical Statistics pdf
- A Little Book of R for Time Series pdf
Avril Coghlan, a lecturer at University College Cork in Ireland, has written and made available for free three books ideal for students or practitioners new to R who want to use it for multivariate analysis, time series analysis or biomedical statistics. Each book begins with practical advice for installing and using R in general, before diving into their specialized topics:
* A Little Book of R for Multivariate Analysis (pdf, 49 pages) is a simple introduction to multivariate analysis using the R statistics software. It covers topics such as reading and plotting multivariate data, principal components analysis, and linear discriminant analysis.
* A Little Book of R for Biomedical Statistics (pdf, 33 pages) is a simple introduction to biomedical statistics using the R statistics software, with sections on relative risks and odds ratios, dose-response analysis, clinical trial design and meta-analysis.
* A Little Book of R for Time Series (pdf, 71 pages) is a simple introduction to time series analysis using the R statistics software (have you spotted the pattern yet?). It includes instruction on how to read and plot time series, time series decomposition, forecasting, and ARIMA models.
All three books are free to use, share and remix under a Creative Commons license, and are available from Dr Coghlan's home page linked below.
Dr Avril Coghlan: avrilomics
History of computers link
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/12/06/science/20111206-technology-timeline.html
Sent to me by Kaustubh Patil. Nice timeline of computer science, with popup facts.
Sent to me by Kaustubh Patil. Nice timeline of computer science, with popup facts.
Brian Eno biography
A Brian Eno biography from the BBC. What a life!
He created modern music. The Bowie Berlin trilogy. The Talking Heads, U2. Coldplay. And still pushing the frontier.
http://www.archive.org/details/BrianEno-HitsClassicsAndTracks
He created modern music. The Bowie Berlin trilogy. The Talking Heads, U2. Coldplay. And still pushing the frontier.
http://www.archive.org/details/BrianEno-HitsClassicsAndTracks
Sunday, December 11, 2011
History of International Currencies Christopher Weber
C. Weber writes an investment newsletter, lives in Monaco so apparently makes a good living off of it. I got ahold of a pdf called Historyofmoneycompleter.pdf. The following are my notes on his opinions. When I think it important enough to disagree, I will do so in italics.
The Mayans were in their golden age from 250-800 AD, the Dark Ages in Europe. We do not know what they used for money.
World currencies can utterly lose value, and fairly rapidly. The idea of the dollar losing its reserve currency status was laughable 3 years ago.
Money must
The fall of Rome lead to the rise of Byzantium. Along with many other things, Constantine introduced the gold Solidus, 65 grains. The idea of stable currency (which had not existed for some 500 years) remained alive. He also saw that debt had ruined the Romans, so outlawed interest. This coin lasted over 750 years.
Next in line was the Islamic Dinar, again at 65 grains of gold. It lasted 450 years.
Islamic world domination ended when they introduced paper money.
The Mayans were in their golden age from 250-800 AD, the Dark Ages in Europe. We do not know what they used for money.
World currencies can utterly lose value, and fairly rapidly. The idea of the dollar losing its reserve currency status was laughable 3 years ago.
Money must
- have accepted value
- be durable
- bedivisible
- consistent quality (even after division)
- convenient
a condition of depression and despair to which the modern world ... can present no parallel ... Everywhere land was falling to waste untilled, empty, gaunt, the water courses dried and the poplar sere and yellow ... the slaves running away and revolting, the hired managers ... hastening to line their pockets ... and the patrician owners hiding their gold and silver and jewelry against the day of inevitable collapseWe should also here note the role of disease, which drastically reduced populations. Horrid times indeed.
The fall of Rome lead to the rise of Byzantium. Along with many other things, Constantine introduced the gold Solidus, 65 grains. The idea of stable currency (which had not existed for some 500 years) remained alive. He also saw that debt had ruined the Romans, so outlawed interest. This coin lasted over 750 years.
Next in line was the Islamic Dinar, again at 65 grains of gold. It lasted 450 years.
Islamic world domination ended when they introduced paper money.
Friday, December 9, 2011
science rap
Baba Brinkman
Profiled in Wired for pioneering "science rap." Rap 'songs' which teach i.e. evolution, designed for classroom use ?? WTF-- this goes so far beyond un-cool. If you want to be a cool science teacher, blow things up, don't play bad music vids from a music form whose cred is as old as you.
Then I started thinking. It can't be worse than 'christian rock'. So why not 'science rock' or whatever?
Profiled in Wired for pioneering "science rap." Rap 'songs' which teach i.e. evolution, designed for classroom use ?? WTF-- this goes so far beyond un-cool. If you want to be a cool science teacher, blow things up, don't play bad music vids from a music form whose cred is as old as you.
Then I started thinking. It can't be worse than 'christian rock'. So why not 'science rock' or whatever?
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Late Pleistocene Dispersal of Modern Humans in the Americas
By Ted Goebel, Science, 14 March 2008
A similar article featured on a recent podcast. Don't want to look it up right now.
Goebel writes that
The human skeletal evidence across the Americas shows that the NEw World was populated by Homo Sapiens. Although the crania of htese early people look different from modern Native Americans, modern and ancient DNA studies show that they were genetically related. The earliest inhabitants of hte Americas hailed form south Siberia (Between the Altai Mountains and Amur Valley).
Current molecular evidence implies that members of a single population (of less than 5000 individuals) left Siberia and headed east to the Americas approximately 16.6 ka.
Humans colonized the Americas around 15 ka, immediately after deglaciation o fthe Pacific coastal corridor. The first Americans used boats, and the coastal corridor would have been the likely route of passage since the interior corridor appears to have remained closed for at least another 1000 years.
A similar article featured on a recent podcast. Don't want to look it up right now.
Goebel writes that
The human skeletal evidence across the Americas shows that the NEw World was populated by Homo Sapiens. Although the crania of htese early people look different from modern Native Americans, modern and ancient DNA studies show that they were genetically related. The earliest inhabitants of hte Americas hailed form south Siberia (Between the Altai Mountains and Amur Valley).
Current molecular evidence implies that members of a single population (of less than 5000 individuals) left Siberia and headed east to the Americas approximately 16.6 ka.
Humans colonized the Americas around 15 ka, immediately after deglaciation o fthe Pacific coastal corridor. The first Americans used boats, and the coastal corridor would have been the likely route of passage since the interior corridor appears to have remained closed for at least another 1000 years.
Kilowatt/hour currency
Dear Mike,
I appreciated your enthusiasm for the idea of a currency based on the kilowatt/hour standard. Nor was I surprised by your concern that the currency's "value" would be reduced if the underlying commodity, here electricity, became more abundant.
Snarky reply: The US Dollar is currently backed by the full faith and trust of the US Government. That commodity seems to be decreasing. Does this mean that the dollar is worth more now than it was in 1971?
Wonky reply: are you looking to create a "store of value" or a "medium of exchange"? Which monetary function to optimize?
+glenn
I appreciated your enthusiasm for the idea of a currency based on the kilowatt/hour standard. Nor was I surprised by your concern that the currency's "value" would be reduced if the underlying commodity, here electricity, became more abundant.
Snarky reply: The US Dollar is currently backed by the full faith and trust of the US Government. That commodity seems to be decreasing. Does this mean that the dollar is worth more now than it was in 1971?
Wonky reply: are you looking to create a "store of value" or a "medium of exchange"? Which monetary function to optimize?
+glenn
"Capital is not a free gift of God or of nature. It is the outcome of a provident restriction of consumption on the part of man. It is created and increased by saving and maintained by the abstention from dissaving."
-Ludwig Von Mises
Owning shares is a crime
A guest post from Michael Lawyer:
A corporation is legally owned by its shareholders, who may at the exercise of their will do anything with it up to an including killing it. Furthermore they are entitled to all profits of the corporations labor.
Corporations under current jurisprudence are people.
You own the labor of and determine the fate - up to death - of people. That is slavery.
To be a shareholder is to be a slaveholder.
Slavery is unconstitutional. Therefore, as long as corporations have the rights of people, to be a shareholder is unconstitutional.
A corporation is legally owned by its shareholders, who may at the exercise of their will do anything with it up to an including killing it. Furthermore they are entitled to all profits of the corporations labor.
Corporations under current jurisprudence are people.
You own the labor of and determine the fate - up to death - of people. That is slavery.
To be a shareholder is to be a slaveholder.
Slavery is unconstitutional. Therefore, as long as corporations have the rights of people, to be a shareholder is unconstitutional.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
haboob
haboob is an arabic word for an intense dust storm. They can be created by the collapse of a thunderstorm, a 100 kilometer long wall of sand reaching several kilometers into the sky, and can leave up to a foot of sand on everything in their path.
This one hit Phoenix on Tuesday, 6 July 2011. Mike Olbinski made a great video of it.
The Phoenix Haboob of July 6th, 2011 from Mike Olbinski on Vimeo.
Globalization, land use, and the invasion of the West Nile Virus (Kilpatrick, 2011)
Review article in Science, 21 October
WNV endemic in Africa, childhood disease (>80% of people over 15 having antibodies), considered nearly asymptotic & once even studied as an anti-cancer therapy.
WNV was first observed in the Americas in 1999, in New York City. In four years it was on the west coast, and after 10 years it had reached deep into South America. It had also (by 2002) changed 3 nucleotides/1 amino acid to increase transmission efficiency in C. pipiens and C. tarsalis mosquitos. In the US, 1.8 million people have been infected, 360,000 illnesses (20%), 12852 encephalitis (0.7%), and 1308 deaths (0.0007%). Big cost in blood donor screening. Given a US population of 250 million, these numbers do not seem alarming.
The disease is much worse in birds. Regional-scale population declines >50% have been reported in corvids, chickadees, titmice, wrens, and thrushes.
Robins (the bird, a species of thrush) are a preferred food source for mosquitos. The dominant WNV vectors are the mosquito species C. pipiens, C. restuans, and C. tarsalis. Some 30-80% of their feedings are on robins, though robins make up only 1-20% of the studied avian communities.
Robins do exceptionally well in human altered landscapes. Populations have doubled over the last 25 years (or is this because we stopped using DDT?? What were robin populations 100 years ago?)
WNV has chosen the "kill them fast" reproductive strategy. Sick animals are more vulnerable to mosquito bites, and increased virema increases the odds that a bite will infect the mosquito. In the (non-anthropod) host, death does not reduce transmission probabilities, as time to recovery and time to death are both 4-6 days.
Mosquitos hitchike on airplanes.
WNV- flavirivus
WNV endemic in Africa, childhood disease (>80% of people over 15 having antibodies), considered nearly asymptotic & once even studied as an anti-cancer therapy.
WNV was first observed in the Americas in 1999, in New York City. In four years it was on the west coast, and after 10 years it had reached deep into South America. It had also (by 2002) changed 3 nucleotides/1 amino acid to increase transmission efficiency in C. pipiens and C. tarsalis mosquitos. In the US, 1.8 million people have been infected, 360,000 illnesses (20%), 12852 encephalitis (0.7%), and 1308 deaths (0.0007%). Big cost in blood donor screening. Given a US population of 250 million, these numbers do not seem alarming.
The disease is much worse in birds. Regional-scale population declines >50% have been reported in corvids, chickadees, titmice, wrens, and thrushes.
Robins (the bird, a species of thrush) are a preferred food source for mosquitos. The dominant WNV vectors are the mosquito species C. pipiens, C. restuans, and C. tarsalis. Some 30-80% of their feedings are on robins, though robins make up only 1-20% of the studied avian communities.
Robins do exceptionally well in human altered landscapes. Populations have doubled over the last 25 years (or is this because we stopped using DDT?? What were robin populations 100 years ago?)
WNV has chosen the "kill them fast" reproductive strategy. Sick animals are more vulnerable to mosquito bites, and increased virema increases the odds that a bite will infect the mosquito. In the (non-anthropod) host, death does not reduce transmission probabilities, as time to recovery and time to death are both 4-6 days.
Mosquitos hitchike on airplanes.
WNV- flavirivus
Green Bay Packers
I am now the proud owner of a NFL football team. Which just happens to be 12-0 for the season!!
Go Packers!
Previous stock sales took place in 1923, ’35, ’50 and ’97. Prior to Tuesday morning, the organization had approximately 112,000 shareholders holding around 4,750,000 shares of stock.
Go Packers!
Previous stock sales took place in 1923, ’35, ’50 and ’97. Prior to Tuesday morning, the organization had approximately 112,000 shareholders holding around 4,750,000 shares of stock.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Monday, December 5, 2011
mobile computing/status symbols
I've had my Galaxy for many months now, and I still don't quite get all the hype. Yes, it grants some convenience, but the interface is so awkward compared to a desktop computer. It takes "computer frustration" to an all new deeper level.
Is it only me who sees "smartphones" as a mark of poverty, not wealth? When a smartphone becomes the common idea of what a computer is, huh.
My brother Mike and I were talking about comptures and children, his being under 5. The touch-screen is what lets them use the device. So what is this, you want a computer interface designed to operate at the level of a preschooler? WTF?
Is it only me who sees "smartphones" as a mark of poverty, not wealth? When a smartphone becomes the common idea of what a computer is, huh.
My brother Mike and I were talking about comptures and children, his being under 5. The touch-screen is what lets them use the device. So what is this, you want a computer interface designed to operate at the level of a preschooler? WTF?
Sunday, December 4, 2011
self publish & taxes
Clipped verbatim from
http://www.mywritingblog.com/2011/03/how-non-us-authors-on-amazon-and.html
who claims to have done the same from
Ali Cooper
http://www.alicooper.net/
If you are a UK citizen, paying (or required to if you earn enough) UK tax, you should not be paying US tax. There is a tax treaty between the countries agreeing this. However, the IRS will automatically deduct 30% of your earnings until you have gone through all their form-filling requirements.
Having completed most of this process myself, this is my guide to what you will need to do. Smashwords are very clued up about it and put links to all the downloadable forms you will need on their site. I'll summarise this, and add a few bits that apply specifically to UK authors.
Three-Stage Process
There are three things you need to complete in order to avoid US tax. And you need to do them in this order.
1. Obtain a letter from a withholding agent (i.e. someone who's paying you, Amazon or Smashwords) saying that they are paying you.
2. Submit this letter along with ID and a form to the IRS.
3. When you receive your ITIN from the IRS, fill in another form and submit it to Amazon, etc.
ALSO
4. If any of your earnings were withheld in previous tax years (that's Jan-Dec in the US) you can claim back the tax for three years from the IRS.
Stage One
The IRS require a signed letter, written on paper, from someone in the US who is paying you, before they will process your application for an ITIN (individual tax identification number). The statement you get with a cheque from Amazon, which clearly states they are paying you and how much, is not enough.
Smashwords are very clued up and helpful about this. Amazon, unfortunately, are not. As soon as you earn $10 from Smashwords, they will provide the necessary letter - click a button to request. I would suggest that if you are earning and being taxed by the IRS, the sooner you get the tax process started, the better. I would advise any new author, even if you aren't selling much (or anything) through Smashwords, it might be worth buying enough copies of your own book through them (you'll get most of it back as royalty anyway) in order to request that letter now.
Stage Two
When you have a letter stating you are being paid by a US company, you can apply for an ITIN. You will need to fill in form W-7. This, and the copious instructions for filling it in, can be downloaded from the IRS website. Smashwords provides the links, but do a Google check just to make sure you have the most up-to-date form. You can fill it in on your computer, then print it off and sign it. Reason for submitting form should be a, and h, and alongside h you should write 'exception 1d royalties'. The treaty article number is 12 [for the UK, I assume - Nick].
You now need ID, preferably a passport. It's possible that a driving license would be accepted, but check first. The US Embassy in London are very helpful and will answer questions by email. They say they also offer phone support, but I've not known them answer!
When you have your letter from Smashwords, completed W-7 and passport(s), you have three options.
1. Get your passport copied and signed by a notary (cost approx £50 - £100) and send with form and letter to the IRS in the US.
2. Go in person to the US embassy in London (check their website for opening times).
3. Send your documents, including passport, to the US embassy in London (cost approx £5 for special delivery).
I went for option 3 and am glad I did for several reasons. Many people get something wrong first time and have to redo it - not good if you've sent everything to the US. The embassy will check everything for you and return your passport by special delivery within a couple of days. They then forward your application to the US and will follow it up for you if it takes too long, etc.
Stage Three
Eventually you will receive a letter from the IRS with your ITIN. You now need to download form W-8BEN and instructions from the IRS. As usual, Smashwords have the links for this. They also suggest that you enter the user name and/or email you use with them in the 'reference number' section of the form. You will need to fill in the form, including your ITIN, and print a copy for each company paying you, e.g. Smashwords, Amazon. Obviously, the reference details for each one may be different. You then need to sign and post a physical copy to each company.
Once the forms have been received and processed, any tax withheld by each company for this tax year should be automatically reimbursed by them. Any tax withheld for previous tax years will have already been sent to IRS and you will need to claim it back from them yourself.
http://www.mywritingblog.com/2011/03/how-non-us-authors-on-amazon-and.html
who claims to have done the same from
Ali Cooper
http://www.alicooper.net/
If you are a UK citizen, paying (or required to if you earn enough) UK tax, you should not be paying US tax. There is a tax treaty between the countries agreeing this. However, the IRS will automatically deduct 30% of your earnings until you have gone through all their form-filling requirements.
Having completed most of this process myself, this is my guide to what you will need to do. Smashwords are very clued up about it and put links to all the downloadable forms you will need on their site. I'll summarise this, and add a few bits that apply specifically to UK authors.
Three-Stage Process
There are three things you need to complete in order to avoid US tax. And you need to do them in this order.
1. Obtain a letter from a withholding agent (i.e. someone who's paying you, Amazon or Smashwords) saying that they are paying you.
2. Submit this letter along with ID and a form to the IRS.
3. When you receive your ITIN from the IRS, fill in another form and submit it to Amazon, etc.
ALSO
4. If any of your earnings were withheld in previous tax years (that's Jan-Dec in the US) you can claim back the tax for three years from the IRS.
Stage One
The IRS require a signed letter, written on paper, from someone in the US who is paying you, before they will process your application for an ITIN (individual tax identification number). The statement you get with a cheque from Amazon, which clearly states they are paying you and how much, is not enough.
Smashwords are very clued up and helpful about this. Amazon, unfortunately, are not. As soon as you earn $10 from Smashwords, they will provide the necessary letter - click a button to request. I would suggest that if you are earning and being taxed by the IRS, the sooner you get the tax process started, the better. I would advise any new author, even if you aren't selling much (or anything) through Smashwords, it might be worth buying enough copies of your own book through them (you'll get most of it back as royalty anyway) in order to request that letter now.
Stage Two
When you have a letter stating you are being paid by a US company, you can apply for an ITIN. You will need to fill in form W-7. This, and the copious instructions for filling it in, can be downloaded from the IRS website. Smashwords provides the links, but do a Google check just to make sure you have the most up-to-date form. You can fill it in on your computer, then print it off and sign it. Reason for submitting form should be a, and h, and alongside h you should write 'exception 1d royalties'. The treaty article number is 12 [for the UK, I assume - Nick].
You now need ID, preferably a passport. It's possible that a driving license would be accepted, but check first. The US Embassy in London are very helpful and will answer questions by email. They say they also offer phone support, but I've not known them answer!
When you have your letter from Smashwords, completed W-7 and passport(s), you have three options.
1. Get your passport copied and signed by a notary (cost approx £50 - £100) and send with form and letter to the IRS in the US.
2. Go in person to the US embassy in London (check their website for opening times).
3. Send your documents, including passport, to the US embassy in London (cost approx £5 for special delivery).
I went for option 3 and am glad I did for several reasons. Many people get something wrong first time and have to redo it - not good if you've sent everything to the US. The embassy will check everything for you and return your passport by special delivery within a couple of days. They then forward your application to the US and will follow it up for you if it takes too long, etc.
Stage Three
Eventually you will receive a letter from the IRS with your ITIN. You now need to download form W-8BEN and instructions from the IRS. As usual, Smashwords have the links for this. They also suggest that you enter the user name and/or email you use with them in the 'reference number' section of the form. You will need to fill in the form, including your ITIN, and print a copy for each company paying you, e.g. Smashwords, Amazon. Obviously, the reference details for each one may be different. You then need to sign and post a physical copy to each company.
Once the forms have been received and processed, any tax withheld by each company for this tax year should be automatically reimbursed by them. Any tax withheld for previous tax years will have already been sent to IRS and you will need to claim it back from them yourself.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
My first arabic spam email!!
Subject: لديك فاز £ 1000000، 00 ، BAT الترويجي
Body:
اسم...
البلد..
<< end message >>
Pretty cool!
Body:
اسم...
البلد..
<< end message >>
Pretty cool!
Electricity based currency
Who needs a gold standard? Let's price everything in kilowatt/hours. Electricity is something we all depend on. When the third industrial revolution really kicks off and each house generates its own power, then owning land again becomes a source of income.
Will the currency devalue as thongs become more energy efficient, or as energy becomes easier to produce/cheaper? Look buddy, if you want me to take that line seriously, tell me what you think of dollars or fiat currency as a store of value m
Evidence for a bimodal distribution in human communication
By ye Wu et all, PNAS, 2010. Sorry, lost the direct link.
Human actions (disease spread, resource alloc, ) are often modelled using a Poission distribution (expected number of events during a time interval T, given exponential distribution for waiting times). But this assumption is not fit by the data for i.e. email. Rather, we see bursts of activity followed by long periods of inaction.
Is this because most models do not incorporate both individuals and interactions??
The authors distinguish between initiated and responsive actions, with Poission distribution for the initiation of communication bursts and power-law distribution of messages within a burst (determined in part by priority queuing) They analyze SMS communication.
Human actions (disease spread, resource alloc, ) are often modelled using a Poission distribution (expected number of events during a time interval T, given exponential distribution for waiting times). But this assumption is not fit by the data for i.e. email. Rather, we see bursts of activity followed by long periods of inaction.
Is this because most models do not incorporate both individuals and interactions??
The authors distinguish between initiated and responsive actions, with Poission distribution for the initiation of communication bursts and power-law distribution of messages within a burst (determined in part by priority queuing) They analyze SMS communication.
Rejoiners
That's a great point, it would be worth an hour's lecture in itself, which I am sure you could give.
Dave Birch "The Future of Money" 24 Nov 2011
Wow! I really like this guy! strong command of history, no self-promotion, not a polished presenter, lots of good ancidotes.
Another great talk from the RSA.
Some examples from English history:
Tally sticks (as a way of tracking future tax liabilities) introducing marketable Government debt. Lasted 500 years AFTER the invention of double-entry bookkeeping. Ended when the government decided to burn them all. The resulting fire burned down the Houses of Parliment on 16 October 1834.
Problems with bad coinage -- too many types, too much counterfeit, clipping, etc. This was at the start of the age of Enlightenment, so with great faith in Science to solve the problem, expert advice was requested. Newton's solution got the nod, promoting him to the head of the Royal Mint (1696). Also lead to a gold standard
Wampum belts in the colonies. Contracts were made in pounds, which were nominally on a gold standard. But since neither pounds nor gold existed in quantity in the colonies, at the time of contract fullfillment the bill was settled with other items. Beaver fur, wampum belts; all of which put the indians in an interesting position as bankers, since they would accept almost limitless amounts of wampum.
So what is the future? Mobile phones, which can resolve complex barter chains, and can allow everyone to both send and receive transactions. Or via complicated FX chains (managed via centralized preference lists, to make management simple), allowing payment in Sterling, Gold, BA Miles, Tesco Clubcard points, ...
Return to private currencies. A brand can offer a currency. This should include consumer protection, as consumer protection adds to the value.
Why deposit "euros" in a pension scheme. What you really want is say kilowatt/hours.
Another great talk from the RSA.
Some examples from English history:
Tally sticks (as a way of tracking future tax liabilities) introducing marketable Government debt. Lasted 500 years AFTER the invention of double-entry bookkeeping. Ended when the government decided to burn them all. The resulting fire burned down the Houses of Parliment on 16 October 1834.
Problems with bad coinage -- too many types, too much counterfeit, clipping, etc. This was at the start of the age of Enlightenment, so with great faith in Science to solve the problem, expert advice was requested. Newton's solution got the nod, promoting him to the head of the Royal Mint (1696). Also lead to a gold standard
Wampum belts in the colonies. Contracts were made in pounds, which were nominally on a gold standard. But since neither pounds nor gold existed in quantity in the colonies, at the time of contract fullfillment the bill was settled with other items. Beaver fur, wampum belts; all of which put the indians in an interesting position as bankers, since they would accept almost limitless amounts of wampum.
So what is the future? Mobile phones, which can resolve complex barter chains, and can allow everyone to both send and receive transactions. Or via complicated FX chains (managed via centralized preference lists, to make management simple), allowing payment in Sterling, Gold, BA Miles, Tesco Clubcard points, ...
Return to private currencies. A brand can offer a currency. This should include consumer protection, as consumer protection adds to the value.
Why deposit "euros" in a pension scheme. What you really want is say kilowatt/hours.
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