Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Capitalism and markets
Capitalism and markets are as much opposites as equivalent. In a market, one uses the medium of money to turn one commodity into another. C-M-C'. In capitalism, one uses the medium of commodities to turn money into more money M-C-M+.
How to twitter (guest post)
My brother Mike (@mclawyer)
send me the following
Here's my quick and dirty guide to twitter:
1. The first thing is activity. Use an app like buffer to enhance your presence online so you can be active when your followers are, even if you're asleep at that time. Use an app like socialbro to figure out when your followers are active.
2. The minimum viable tweet is a headline and a link to an article you find interesting. This is even better if you have enough charatcters to say something (i.e. interesting, needs more research, pompous but insightful, etc.)
3. tweet about events you're at. These tend to have hash tags and are the best way to pick up new followers. If they're interested in the event, they're interested in the people at the event.
4. mix up your types of tweets. The occasional funny or odd hobby are appreciated. Twitter values you being a real person. Ideally you develop a rough formula for this. i.e. 2 tweets about science a day, 1 tweet about side project (diving, shooting, skiing, whateves) 1 tweet you found funny, 1 tweet about things you just think are cool, 1 tweet of your content. This can be varied depending on what you actually want to tweet about, but don't feel bound by message discipline concerns.
5. grow by getting the attention of the slightly bigger than you. use @mentions to start conversations with people. Remember this is a digital cocktail party and social paring matters. Someone with 10,000 followers will not likely respond to an @mention from someone with 10 followers unless your timing is really good or you say something really funny. On the other hand someone with 300 followers will respond to every @message that isn't selling penis pills. You can climb, but you have to take it steps at a time.
6. retweets are sort of like saying +1. give them generously, people love love.
7. Actually read other peoples tweets - it is a two way communication stream. That said, don't feel like you have to read them all. That's like saying you'll watch youtube, all of it. can't be done.
send me the following
Here's my quick and dirty guide to twitter:
1. The first thing is activity. Use an app like buffer to enhance your presence online so you can be active when your followers are, even if you're asleep at that time. Use an app like socialbro to figure out when your followers are active.
2. The minimum viable tweet is a headline and a link to an article you find interesting. This is even better if you have enough charatcters to say something (i.e. interesting, needs more research, pompous but insightful, etc.)
3. tweet about events you're at. These tend to have hash tags and are the best way to pick up new followers. If they're interested in the event, they're interested in the people at the event.
4. mix up your types of tweets. The occasional funny or odd hobby are appreciated. Twitter values you being a real person. Ideally you develop a rough formula for this. i.e. 2 tweets about science a day, 1 tweet about side project (diving, shooting, skiing, whateves) 1 tweet you found funny, 1 tweet about things you just think are cool, 1 tweet of your content. This can be varied depending on what you actually want to tweet about, but don't feel bound by message discipline concerns.
5. grow by getting the attention of the slightly bigger than you. use @mentions to start conversations with people. Remember this is a digital cocktail party and social paring matters. Someone with 10,000 followers will not likely respond to an @mention from someone with 10 followers unless your timing is really good or you say something really funny. On the other hand someone with 300 followers will respond to every @message that isn't selling penis pills. You can climb, but you have to take it steps at a time.
6. retweets are sort of like saying +1. give them generously, people love love.
7. Actually read other peoples tweets - it is a two way communication stream. That said, don't feel like you have to read them all. That's like saying you'll watch youtube, all of it. can't be done.
Finite and Infinite games -- James Carse
This book topped alot of "it will change your life" lists. I am less sure.
Written by James Carse, talk available at the Long Now
Prof Carse is professor emeritus at NYU, where he directed the religious studies program for many years.
A finite game has a defined end, and a defined winner. War is the ultimate finite game. Basketball is a less violent and shorter example.
An infinte game is played with the purpose of continuing to play. It has no end, and the concept of winning doesn't exist. Free-form building with legos, for example. Religion as another.
Finite games impose boundaries or rules.
Infinte games have horizons.
Finite games are entered willingly yet exiting is involuntary.
Infinte games can be entered involuntarily, yet exiting is voluntary.
Likewise, we can concieve of dramatic (requiring participation, infinite) or theatrical (participation is optional, preset goals) games.
Prof Carse started school at age 4 and never left (his words). His lack of engagement in the "real world" shows in his philosophy, which does not appear to be harded by fire.
Written by James Carse, talk available at the Long Now
Prof Carse is professor emeritus at NYU, where he directed the religious studies program for many years.
A finite game has a defined end, and a defined winner. War is the ultimate finite game. Basketball is a less violent and shorter example.
An infinte game is played with the purpose of continuing to play. It has no end, and the concept of winning doesn't exist. Free-form building with legos, for example. Religion as another.
Finite games impose boundaries or rules.
Infinte games have horizons.
Finite games are entered willingly yet exiting is involuntary.
Infinte games can be entered involuntarily, yet exiting is voluntary.
Likewise, we can concieve of dramatic (requiring participation, infinite) or theatrical (participation is optional, preset goals) games.
Prof Carse started school at age 4 and never left (his words). His lack of engagement in the "real world" shows in his philosophy, which does not appear to be harded by fire.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
dynamic dividends
Clipped (almost) verbatim from http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/02/01/when-stocks-declare-their-first-dividend-look-out/
The Dynamic Dividend is dedicated to helping income investors identify quality opportunities through dividend stock news, tools, tips, statistics, and ideas.
If the data I’ve collected over the last six months is any indication, a very strong case can be made for the initiation of a dividend as a signal that a stock is about to generate market-beating returns.
Below I’ve put together a comprehensive table of stocks that have announced the initiation of a regular dividend (or distribution, in the case of an MLP) since August 1, 2011. I’ve also included each stock’s performance since the announcement, alongside the S&P 500′s performance (via the SPY) during the same period. The results are pretty staggering.
Of the 36 stocks listed, only three are currently trading lower than their final closing price prior to declaring their first payout, and only seven have been outperformed by the S&P 500 since the same announcement. The average gain by the new dividend stocks (22.75%) is an absurd 15.67% better than the average gain by the S&P 500 (7.09%) during comparable periods.
Some highlights include: SMF Energy gaining 182% (vs. 17% for the S&P 500), Ebix gaining 58% (vs. 12%), Intuit gaining 40% (vs. 14%), Xyratex gaining 68% (vs. 2%), and Emcor Group gaining 53% (vs. 16%). Solutia has popped 77%, thanks in large part to Eastman agreeing to pay a 42% premium for the company last week.
Clearly today’s low interest rate environment has had a major impact on these numbers, as income investors are latching on to anything with yield. But the figures below describe a staggering blowout, nonetheless. Notice the absurd lack of red across the board.
Company Initiated* Performance S&P 500 Alpha
Inergy Midstream LP (NRGM) 1/26/2012 -0.39% -0.52% 0.13%
Rose Rock Midstream LP (RRMS) 1/23/2012 1.55% -0.28% 1.83%
Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH) 1/18/2012 9.36% 0.31% 9.05%
Agilent Technologies Inc. (A) 1/17/2012 6.20% 1.47% 4.73%
Electro Scientific Industries, Inc. (ESIO) 1/12/2012 -2.69% 1.31% -4.00%
CSP Inc. (CSPI) 1/11/2012 19.24% 1.52% 17.73%
Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) (FMCN) 1/9/2012 6.89% 2.52% 4.38%
Genie Energy Ltd (GNE) 1/8/2012 24.67% 2.52% 22.16%
Kensey Nash Corporation (KNSY) 1/3/2012 17.28% 2.92% 14.36%
Solutia Inc. (SOA) 12/14/2011 84.69% 7.81% 76.88%
First Connecticut Bancorp Inc (FBNK) 11/23/2011 6.94% 12.57% -5.63%
Griffon Corporation (GFF) 11/17/2011 17.16% 7.39% 9.77%
IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) 11/2/2011 8.82% 5.82% 2.99%
Noranda Aluminum Holding Corporation (NOR) 11/1/2011 21.84% 7.48% 14.36%
Lexmark International Inc (LXK) 10/27/2011 11.04% 2.97% 8.07%
PCTEL, Inc. (PCTI) 10/21/2011 16.07% 5.89% 10.18%
Oiltanking Partners LP (OILT) 10/20/2011 14.91% 7.82% 7.08%
Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. (CORE) 10/18/2011 21.55% 7.01% 14.54%
Acorn Energy, Inc. (ACFN) 10/14/2011 20.39% 7.06% 13.33%
HSN, Inc. (HSNI) 9/27/2011 1.45% 11.57% -10.12%
Emcor Group Inc (EME) 9/23/2011 53.19% 15.56% 37.63%
Hecla Mining Company (HL) 9/19/2011 -25.07% 9.06% -34.13%
ProAssurance Corporation (PRA) 9/7/2011 13.15% 9.10% 4.06%
Ebix, Inc. (EBIX) 9/6/2011 57.83% 12.15% 45.68%
Westway Group, Inc. (WWAY) 8/30/2011 26.70% 7.89% 18.81%
Nicholas Financial, Inc. (NICK) 8/29/2011 11.76% 8.10% 3.67%
CECO Environmental Corp. (CECE) 8/24/2011 12.04% 11.07% 0.97%
Intuit Inc. (INTU) 8/18/2011 40.05% 14.48% 25.57%
Celadon Group, Inc. (CGI) 8/16/2011 32.54% 9.74% 22.79%
New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC) 8/11/2011 11.93% 11.88% 0.05%
Kingstone Companies, Inc. (KINS) 8/11/2011 6.26% 11.88% -5.61%
DSW Inc. (DSW) 8/9/2011 5.16% 11.79% -6.64%
SMF Energy Corporations (FUEL) 8/8/2011 182.22% 16.88% 165.34%
Allied Motion Technologies, Inc. (AMOT) 8/3/2011 12.45% 3.96% 8.49%
J2 Global Inc (JCOM) 8/2/2011 3.77% 4.56% -0.79%
Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) 8/1/2011 68.22% 1.94% 66.28%
Averages 22.75% 7.09% 15.67%
The Dynamic Dividend is dedicated to helping income investors identify quality opportunities through dividend stock news, tools, tips, statistics, and ideas.
If the data I’ve collected over the last six months is any indication, a very strong case can be made for the initiation of a dividend as a signal that a stock is about to generate market-beating returns.
Below I’ve put together a comprehensive table of stocks that have announced the initiation of a regular dividend (or distribution, in the case of an MLP) since August 1, 2011. I’ve also included each stock’s performance since the announcement, alongside the S&P 500′s performance (via the SPY) during the same period. The results are pretty staggering.
Of the 36 stocks listed, only three are currently trading lower than their final closing price prior to declaring their first payout, and only seven have been outperformed by the S&P 500 since the same announcement. The average gain by the new dividend stocks (22.75%) is an absurd 15.67% better than the average gain by the S&P 500 (7.09%) during comparable periods.
Some highlights include: SMF Energy gaining 182% (vs. 17% for the S&P 500), Ebix gaining 58% (vs. 12%), Intuit gaining 40% (vs. 14%), Xyratex gaining 68% (vs. 2%), and Emcor Group gaining 53% (vs. 16%). Solutia has popped 77%, thanks in large part to Eastman agreeing to pay a 42% premium for the company last week.
Clearly today’s low interest rate environment has had a major impact on these numbers, as income investors are latching on to anything with yield. But the figures below describe a staggering blowout, nonetheless. Notice the absurd lack of red across the board.
Company Initiated* Performance S&P 500 Alpha
Inergy Midstream LP (NRGM) 1/26/2012 -0.39% -0.52% 0.13%
Rose Rock Midstream LP (RRMS) 1/23/2012 1.55% -0.28% 1.83%
Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH) 1/18/2012 9.36% 0.31% 9.05%
Agilent Technologies Inc. (A) 1/17/2012 6.20% 1.47% 4.73%
Electro Scientific Industries, Inc. (ESIO) 1/12/2012 -2.69% 1.31% -4.00%
CSP Inc. (CSPI) 1/11/2012 19.24% 1.52% 17.73%
Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) (FMCN) 1/9/2012 6.89% 2.52% 4.38%
Genie Energy Ltd (GNE) 1/8/2012 24.67% 2.52% 22.16%
Kensey Nash Corporation (KNSY) 1/3/2012 17.28% 2.92% 14.36%
Solutia Inc. (SOA) 12/14/2011 84.69% 7.81% 76.88%
First Connecticut Bancorp Inc (FBNK) 11/23/2011 6.94% 12.57% -5.63%
Griffon Corporation (GFF) 11/17/2011 17.16% 7.39% 9.77%
IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) 11/2/2011 8.82% 5.82% 2.99%
Noranda Aluminum Holding Corporation (NOR) 11/1/2011 21.84% 7.48% 14.36%
Lexmark International Inc (LXK) 10/27/2011 11.04% 2.97% 8.07%
PCTEL, Inc. (PCTI) 10/21/2011 16.07% 5.89% 10.18%
Oiltanking Partners LP (OILT) 10/20/2011 14.91% 7.82% 7.08%
Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. (CORE) 10/18/2011 21.55% 7.01% 14.54%
Acorn Energy, Inc. (ACFN) 10/14/2011 20.39% 7.06% 13.33%
HSN, Inc. (HSNI) 9/27/2011 1.45% 11.57% -10.12%
Emcor Group Inc (EME) 9/23/2011 53.19% 15.56% 37.63%
Hecla Mining Company (HL) 9/19/2011 -25.07% 9.06% -34.13%
ProAssurance Corporation (PRA) 9/7/2011 13.15% 9.10% 4.06%
Ebix, Inc. (EBIX) 9/6/2011 57.83% 12.15% 45.68%
Westway Group, Inc. (WWAY) 8/30/2011 26.70% 7.89% 18.81%
Nicholas Financial, Inc. (NICK) 8/29/2011 11.76% 8.10% 3.67%
CECO Environmental Corp. (CECE) 8/24/2011 12.04% 11.07% 0.97%
Intuit Inc. (INTU) 8/18/2011 40.05% 14.48% 25.57%
Celadon Group, Inc. (CGI) 8/16/2011 32.54% 9.74% 22.79%
New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC) 8/11/2011 11.93% 11.88% 0.05%
Kingstone Companies, Inc. (KINS) 8/11/2011 6.26% 11.88% -5.61%
DSW Inc. (DSW) 8/9/2011 5.16% 11.79% -6.64%
SMF Energy Corporations (FUEL) 8/8/2011 182.22% 16.88% 165.34%
Allied Motion Technologies, Inc. (AMOT) 8/3/2011 12.45% 3.96% 8.49%
J2 Global Inc (JCOM) 8/2/2011 3.77% 4.56% -0.79%
Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) 8/1/2011 68.22% 1.94% 66.28%
Averages 22.75% 7.09% 15.67%
Spider webs break, repair don't replace
From Nature(full article here)
A web's strands of silk adapt to the amount of stress they experience, and how that stress is loaded onto them. Under a light stress, a gentle highland breeze perhaps, the silk softens and extends, so allowing the web to retain its structure. But when a larger and more disruptive force strikes — such as a hand groping for a light switch in a dark attic — the silk strands first extend, then the most stretched of those strands become suddenly rigid and so break. This sacrifice of a strand or two localizes the damage, and keeps the rest of the web intact. Once the disturbance has passed, the spider can scurry out to repair the web, rather than being forced to rebuild.
How to make the analogy to an adoptive network?
A web's strands of silk adapt to the amount of stress they experience, and how that stress is loaded onto them. Under a light stress, a gentle highland breeze perhaps, the silk softens and extends, so allowing the web to retain its structure. But when a larger and more disruptive force strikes — such as a hand groping for a light switch in a dark attic — the silk strands first extend, then the most stretched of those strands become suddenly rigid and so break. This sacrifice of a strand or two localizes the damage, and keeps the rest of the web intact. Once the disturbance has passed, the spider can scurry out to repair the web, rather than being forced to rebuild.
How to make the analogy to an adoptive network?
Paul Hawken -- The Long Green (History of the eco movement)
Great talk by Paul Hawkin given at the Long Now.
Paul Hawken coined the term restoration economy, and popularized the ideas of ecosystem services and natural capital. His current thinking (courtesy of wikipedia)
Sound fades out at 41 minute mark. Some great historical nuggets and deep insights.
We live in a time when the dominant myth is end-times. True both for Islam and Christianity. Also Hindu signs of the end times.
In the 1800s and early 1900s, it was creation. It was also creationism, as in spontaneous generation or God made the world in its current form. Some of the same stuff Darwin fought agaist.
He has the Thoreau quote
The myth is important, since (in politics, over at least the last two centuries) theology trumps science.
Paul Hawken coined the term restoration economy, and popularized the ideas of ecosystem services and natural capital. His current thinking (courtesy of wikipedia)
It is axiomatic that we are at a threshold in human existence, a fundamental change in understanding about our relationship to nature and each other. We are moving from a world created by privilege to a world created by community. The current thrust of history is too supple to be labeled, but global themes are emerging in response to cascading ecological crises and human suffering. These ideas include the need for radical social change, the reinvention of market-based economics, the empowerment of women, activism on all levels, and the need for localized economic control. There are insistent calls for autonomy, appeals for a new resource ethic based on the tradition of the commons, demands for the reinstatement of cultural primacy over corporate hegemony, and a rising demand for radical transparency in politics and corporate decision making. It has been said that environmentalism failed as a movement, or worse yet, died. It is the other way around. Everyone on earth will be an environmentalist in the not too distant future, driven there by necessity and experience
Sound fades out at 41 minute mark. Some great historical nuggets and deep insights.
We live in a time when the dominant myth is end-times. True both for Islam and Christianity. Also Hindu signs of the end times.
In the 1800s and early 1900s, it was creation. It was also creationism, as in spontaneous generation or God made the world in its current form. Some of the same stuff Darwin fought agaist.
He has the Thoreau quote
I have great faith in a seed. Convince me that you have a seed in there, and I am prepared to expect wonders.This is from late in Thoreau's life.
The myth is important, since (in politics, over at least the last two centuries) theology trumps science.
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