Living longer

We have a 2200% increase in the number of people living to age 100, compared to a doubling of the overall population (US figures, with 53000 centenarians).

As recently as 1995, for instance, a man with advanced coronary disease was flatly uninsurable. Now it's expected that an arterial blockage can be repaired relatively simply and new plaque buildups can often be controlled with medication, so that life expectancy is only modestly affected.

from SmartMoney

Depopulation-- Philip Longman 2004

Philip Longman discusses the depopulation problem:

The current main driver of human population growth is not new births, but the cessation of "early" death. Almost all countries now have birth rates below replacement levels-- well below if one includes pandemic or disaster induced loss.

Note that environmental disease implies that many of these older people will be on disability.

The clear picture of the future is a world of elderly.

Japan's decades long recession correlates to its demographic aging and falling population.

Old societies trend to have high tax rates, needed to pay for public services to all the old people. But this induces high youth unemployment.

We have a pressing need to recreate or economy to incorporate childbirth and childrearing into the economy.

Raising a child is estimated to cost 200,000 dollars, before college. The lost income from the caregiver raises this to over one million. Yet the economic benefit is near nill. Contrast to an agricultural society where the children provide a net economic benefit  from their second decade.

Increased television viewing is strongly correlated with decreasing birth rates, both accross regions as tv is introduced and within families, comparing the number of hours watched with the number of children.

My rather grim prediction: society will cease to value and respect the elderly. In rural france 100 years ago they were also a burden, and were encouraged to starve so the rest would have enough food for the winter.

Ending aging. Michael West

Michael West wants to use stem cell technology to end aging.

Summary of his talk:
He starts with ancient myths, first written as Oris and Isis. Life is immortal. Some types of cells are immortal.

As multicelled organisms developed, cells began to specialize. The germ line retains its immortality. Other cells sacrifice themselves, becoming somatic cells which shield and protect the germ cells but in the process loose their immortality.

We start aging in the womb.

One of the keys is the telemeres, the bits at the end of the chromosone which somatic cells cannot fix. But germ cells can. An enzime, telemerease, can restore the telemeres. In fact, plant the nucleus of a somatic cell into an egg cell (the current tech behind cloning, aka Dolly) and the egg cell will repair the telemeres to even younger than birth.

He has successfully implanted newly young blood system generating cells into old cattle, giving them both a young immune system and their vascular walls begin to rebuild. This tech could end coronary heart disease. Further, he has re-grown heart tissue, repairing the damage of a heart attack.

Regarding the ethics: A fertilized egg does not become a biological individual until about 14 days after fertization.