[TED Air] I like this TED talk. Paddy Ashdown: The global power shift http://www.ted.com/talks/paddy_ashdown_the_global_power_shift.html TED Air (http://goo.gl/2Aftm)
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
isohyet -- rainfall and survival and good news
Isohyet- line on a map indicating rainfall patterns.
Below the 100-400mm isohyet land becomes uninhabitable.
11 african countries sign the great green wall initiative, a 15km wide 7000 km long green belt to stop the desert.
Below the 100-400mm isohyet land becomes uninhabitable.
11 african countries sign the great green wall initiative, a 15km wide 7000 km long green belt to stop the desert.
Arab Defense spending
German "tiger" attack helicopters to have combat debut in afghanistan this year
Saudis ordered $30bn of F-15s in december.
Oman ordered 12 F-16c/d block 50 falcon fighters on 14 december.
UAE ordered THAAD ballistic missile shield, first order outside the US.
Arabian 2012 defense procurement saudi 11.3, iran 6, israel 3.7, UAE 3 (bn euros)
Almost half of Saudia Arabia's 26 million are under age 20.
Saudis ordered $30bn of F-15s in december.
Oman ordered 12 F-16c/d block 50 falcon fighters on 14 december.
UAE ordered THAAD ballistic missile shield, first order outside the US.
Arabian 2012 defense procurement saudi 11.3, iran 6, israel 3.7, UAE 3 (bn euros)
Almost half of Saudia Arabia's 26 million are under age 20.
importance of cities, and pedestrians
From the Monocle article
21st century economy is city-driven, but political power is based on the 19-20th century model of the nation-state.
Cities, not nations, are the community of the 21st century.
% of world pop living in cities 1800--3%, 1950--30%, 2012--50% or more.
18% of global population generate 66% of global economic activity and 85% of scientific/technical innovation-- city dwellers
More people are killed by cars than by HIV, tb, or malaria.
97k pedestrians use main street NYC each day, and have 30% of the street space. 56k cars take the other 70%. Flushing main street
45% of trips in Chennai, India, are on foot or bike, yet attract only 3% of infrastructure spending
21st century economy is city-driven, but political power is based on the 19-20th century model of the nation-state.
Cities, not nations, are the community of the 21st century.
% of world pop living in cities 1800--3%, 1950--30%, 2012--50% or more.
18% of global population generate 66% of global economic activity and 85% of scientific/technical innovation-- city dwellers
More people are killed by cars than by HIV, tb, or malaria.
97k pedestrians use main street NYC each day, and have 30% of the street space. 56k cars take the other 70%. Flushing main street
45% of trips in Chennai, India, are on foot or bike, yet attract only 3% of infrastructure spending
vnote to text converter
I sometimes want the vnotes from my Androd Galaxy on my laptop. The file transfer is trivial, but the notes are sent in vnote 1.1 format.
I only want the note text, so I need to strip away the meta-info. Also, the text contains the unicode control characters =0A and =0D. I prefer to have line feeds.
The following BASH pipeline does the job:
where the $1 in the grep command refers to the vnote I want to extract.
I save the script in a file (vnoteextracter.sh) and make it executable.
Results are written to the command line.
I only want the note text, so I need to strip away the meta-info. Also, the text contains the unicode control characters =0A and =0D. I prefer to have line feeds.
The following BASH pipeline does the job:
grep 'BODY' $1 | awk -F: '{$1="";print $0}' | sed -e 's/=0D//g' -e 's/=0A/\n/g'
where the $1 in the grep command refers to the vnote I want to extract.
I save the script in a file (vnoteextracter.sh) and make it executable.
Results are written to the command line.
Principles of magic
Teller tells some secrets to smithsonian
- Pattern recognition (establish a pattern)
- Make the secret more trouble than the trick is worth
- Laughter stops critical thinking
- Keep the trick outside the frame
- Combine two tricks (or a second trick which "proves" the first)
- Nothing fools you better than a lie you tell yourself
- A choice implies that you have acted freely (think forced choice)
THE EFFECT I cut a deck of cards a couple of times, and you glimpse flashes of several different cards. I turn the cards facedown and invite you to choose one, memorize it and return it. Now I ask you to name your card. You say (for example), “The queen of hearts.” I take the deck in my mouth, bite down and groan and wiggle to suggest that your card is going down my throat, through my intestines, into my bloodstream and finally into my right foot. I lift that foot and invite you to pull off my shoe and look inside. You find the queen of hearts. You’re amazed. If you happen to pick up the deck later, you’ll find it’s missing the queen of hearts.
THE SECRET(S) First, the preparation: I slip a queen of hearts in my right shoe, an ace of spades in my left and a three of clubs in my wallet. Then I manufacture an entire deck out of duplicates of those three cards. That takes 18 decks, which is costly and tedious (No. 2—More trouble than it’s worth). When I cut the cards, I let you glimpse a few different faces. You conclude the deck contains 52 different cards (No. 1—Pattern recognition). You think you’ve made a choice, just as when you choose between two candidates preselected by entrenched political parties (No. 7—Choice is not freedom). Now I wiggle the card to my shoe (No. 3—If you’re laughing...). When I lift whichever foot has your card, or invite you to take my wallet from my back pocket, I turn away (No. 4—Outside the frame) and swap the deck for a normal one from which I’d removed all three possible selections (No. 5—Combine two tricks). Then I set the deck down to tempt you to examine it later and notice your card missing (No. 6—The lie you tell yourself).
Monday, February 27, 2012
More investment rules
1. Believe in history
“All bubbles break; all investment frenzies pass. The market is gloriously inefficient and wanders far from fair price, but eventually, after breaking your heart and your patience … it will go back to fair value. Your task is to survive until that happens.”
2. ‘Neither a lender nor a borrower be’
“Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience. It encourages financial aggressiveness, recklessness and greed.”
3. Don’t put all of your treasure in one boat
“The more investments you have and the more different they are, the more likely you are to survive those critical periods when your big bets move against you.”
4. Be patient and focus on the long term
“Wait for the good cards this will be your margin of safety.”
5. Recognize your advantages over the professionals
“The individual is far better positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing.”
6. Try to contain natural optimism
“Optimism is a lousy investment strategy”
7. On rare occasions, try hard to be brave
“If the numbers tell you it’s a real outlier of a mispriced market, grit your teeth and go for it.”
8. Resist the crowd; cherish numbers only
“Ignore especially the short-term news. The ebb and flow of economic and political news is irrelevant. Do your own simple measurements of value or find a reliable source.”
9. In the end it’s quite simple. really
“[GMO] estimates are not about nuances or Ph.D.s. They are about ignoring the crowd, working out simple ratios and being patient.”
10. ‘This above all: To thine own self be true’
“It is utterly imperative that you know your limitations as well as your strengths and weaknesses. You must know your pain and patience thresholds accurately and not play over your head. If you cannot resist temptation, you absolutely must not manage your own money.”
“All bubbles break; all investment frenzies pass. The market is gloriously inefficient and wanders far from fair price, but eventually, after breaking your heart and your patience … it will go back to fair value. Your task is to survive until that happens.”
2. ‘Neither a lender nor a borrower be’
“Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience. It encourages financial aggressiveness, recklessness and greed.”
3. Don’t put all of your treasure in one boat
“The more investments you have and the more different they are, the more likely you are to survive those critical periods when your big bets move against you.”
4. Be patient and focus on the long term
“Wait for the good cards this will be your margin of safety.”
5. Recognize your advantages over the professionals
“The individual is far better positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing.”
6. Try to contain natural optimism
“Optimism is a lousy investment strategy”
7. On rare occasions, try hard to be brave
“If the numbers tell you it’s a real outlier of a mispriced market, grit your teeth and go for it.”
8. Resist the crowd; cherish numbers only
“Ignore especially the short-term news. The ebb and flow of economic and political news is irrelevant. Do your own simple measurements of value or find a reliable source.”
9. In the end it’s quite simple. really
“[GMO] estimates are not about nuances or Ph.D.s. They are about ignoring the crowd, working out simple ratios and being patient.”
10. ‘This above all: To thine own self be true’
“It is utterly imperative that you know your limitations as well as your strengths and weaknesses. You must know your pain and patience thresholds accurately and not play over your head. If you cannot resist temptation, you absolutely must not manage your own money.”
The Caging of America
By Adam Gopnik, in the Jan 30 2012 edition of the New Yorker.
Describes one of the United States' current great crimes-- that we have so many of our citizens in jail.
He opens with a reminder of the enveloping fog of "attenuated panic, of watchful paranoia—anxiety and boredom and fear mixed" which characterizes jail life. Time becomes something which is done to you.
Mass incarceration today is as pervasive as slavery was in 1850, with more blacks currently in the grips of the criminal "justice" system than there were enslaved (I wonder if the figure is in absolute numbers or relative?), and more than were held in Stalin's Gulag Achipelago. "Lockdown City" is the second largest in the States.
The rate of incarceration is accelerating. In 1980, it was 220/100,000 (0.2%). In 2010, it was 731/100,000 (0.7%). The money spent on prisons has increased at 6x the rate spent on higher education.
Prison rape has become expected and accepted, reminiscent of 18th century japery of men struggling on the gallows.
Why? How did we get this way? The Norther arguement claims it is BECAUSE of the bill of rights, which encodes proceedures but not principles.
it would be better if
Northern argument espoused by William J. Stuntz, a professor at Harvard Law School, author of Collapse of American Criminal Justice" 2011.
the Southern argument claims it is racism.
Society has seen a massive drop (40%) in violent crime rates over the last 30 years, with no clear explination. Franklin E. Zimring’s new book, “The City That Became Safe,” reports. But the additional drop in NYC seems to have come from the N.Y.P.D. not by fighting minor crimes in safe places but by putting lots of cops in places where lots of crimes happened—“hot-spot policing.”
Thus the key to stopping crime is
Conclusion
Describes one of the United States' current great crimes-- that we have so many of our citizens in jail.
He opens with a reminder of the enveloping fog of "attenuated panic, of watchful paranoia—anxiety and boredom and fear mixed" which characterizes jail life. Time becomes something which is done to you.
Mass incarceration today is as pervasive as slavery was in 1850, with more blacks currently in the grips of the criminal "justice" system than there were enslaved (I wonder if the figure is in absolute numbers or relative?), and more than were held in Stalin's Gulag Achipelago. "Lockdown City" is the second largest in the States.
The rate of incarceration is accelerating. In 1980, it was 220/100,000 (0.2%). In 2010, it was 731/100,000 (0.7%). The money spent on prisons has increased at 6x the rate spent on higher education.
Prison rape has become expected and accepted, reminiscent of 18th century japery of men struggling on the gallows.
Why? How did we get this way? The Norther arguement claims it is BECAUSE of the bill of rights, which encodes proceedures but not principles.
accused criminals get laboriously articulated protection against procedural errors and no protection at all against outrageous and obvious violations of simple justice. You can get off if the cops looked in the wrong car with the wrong warrant when they found your joint, but you have no recourse if owning the joint gets you locked up for life.
it would be better if
The criminal law should once again be more like the common law, with judges and juries not merely finding fact but making law on the basis of universal principles of fairness, circumstance, and seriousness, and crafting penalties to the exigencies of the crime.
Northern argument espoused by William J. Stuntz, a professor at Harvard Law School, author of Collapse of American Criminal Justice" 2011.
the Southern argument claims it is racism.
Society has seen a massive drop (40%) in violent crime rates over the last 30 years, with no clear explination. Franklin E. Zimring’s new book, “The City That Became Safe,” reports. But the additional drop in NYC seems to have come from the N.Y.P.D. not by fighting minor crimes in safe places but by putting lots of cops in places where lots of crimes happened—“hot-spot policing.”
criminal activity seems like most other human choices—a question of contingent occasions and opportunity. Crime is not the consequence of a set number of criminals; criminals are the consequence of a set number of opportunities to commit crimes.
Thus the key to stopping crime is
Conservatives don’t like this view because it shows that being tough doesn’t help; liberals don’t like it because apparently being nice doesn’t help, either. Curbing crime does not depend on reversing social pathologies or alleviating social grievances; it depends on erecting small, annoying barriers to entry.
Conclusion
one piece of radical common sense: since prison plays at best a small role in stopping even violent crime, very few people, rich or poor, should be in prison for a nonviolent crime.
Friday, February 17, 2012
Changing habits
A habit is a learned response to a que which leads to a rewards. Que, action, reward.
Once the action is learned it becomes automatic. The reward is addictive. So the que triggers the action and it is near impossible to stop.
Awareness of this allows you to re-learn bad habits. You cannot (easily) change the que-reward, but you can change the action. You must identify the que and reward, then plot a new action. Ques are usually:
location, time, emotional state, other people, or preceeding action.
To identify the real que, keep a log of these five factors each time you feel the urge.
You also need to identify the real reward.
Likewise, to create a new habit, come up with a que - reward process
Once the action is learned it becomes automatic. The reward is addictive. So the que triggers the action and it is near impossible to stop.
Awareness of this allows you to re-learn bad habits. You cannot (easily) change the que-reward, but you can change the action. You must identify the que and reward, then plot a new action. Ques are usually:
location, time, emotional state, other people, or preceeding action.
To identify the real que, keep a log of these five factors each time you feel the urge.
You also need to identify the real reward.
So one day, when I felt a cookie impulse, I went outside and took a walk instead. The next day, I went to the cafeteria and bought a coffee. The next, I bought an apple and ate it while chatting with friends. You get the idea. I wanted to test different theories regarding what reward I was really craving. Was it hunger? (In which case the apple should have worked.) Was it the desire for a quick burst of energy? (If so, the coffee should suffice.) Or, as turned out to be the answer, was it that after several hours spent focused on work, I wanted to socialize, to make sure I was up to speed on office gossip, and the cookie was just a convenient excuse? When I walked to a colleague’s desk and chatted for a few minutes, it turned out, my cookie urge was gone.
Likewise, to create a new habit, come up with a que - reward process
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Golden age of investing
Tech is making it easier. Source Abnormal Returns
Examples:
http://signup.estimize.com/ to estimate earnings etc
http://alphaclone.com/ follow the hedgies
http://sumzero.com/ investment ideas from the community
i.e. http://sumzero.com/postings/4534/guest_view explains why Community Bankers Trust (BTC) should triple in price over the next 2 years, and it has a large margin of safety at its current price of 1.10
Examples:
http://signup.estimize.com/ to estimate earnings etc
http://alphaclone.com/ follow the hedgies
http://sumzero.com/ investment ideas from the community
i.e. http://sumzero.com/postings/4534/guest_view explains why Community Bankers Trust (BTC) should triple in price over the next 2 years, and it has a large margin of safety at its current price of 1.10
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Swarming networks
There is an interesting analogy between swarm models and adoptive networks. Need to develop a zombie model of it.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
American grand bargins since WWII
This probably applies to more than just the US, but the US is what I know best.
The bargin is between the masses and the wealthy elite, and heavily inspired by D. Graeber's book Debt.
Pre WWII, it was the social safety net, a chicken in every pot.
Post WWII, the workers got small houses, cars, and pensions
Post 1970, it was big houses which gained in value and a piece of the capitalist pie (401k)
For the last two, if you knew what the bargin was and bought in early, you made out big.
I wonder what bargin comes next? What are the terms?
The bargin is between the masses and the wealthy elite, and heavily inspired by D. Graeber's book Debt.
Pre WWII, it was the social safety net, a chicken in every pot.
Post WWII, the workers got small houses, cars, and pensions
Post 1970, it was big houses which gained in value and a piece of the capitalist pie (401k)
For the last two, if you knew what the bargin was and bought in early, you made out big.
I wonder what bargin comes next? What are the terms?
Monday, February 13, 2012
Tinkerbell
The political dimension is that in which things become true if enough people believe in them, but one can never acknowledge that it is the Tinkerbell principle which supports the whole thing. It is, in this sense, fraud.
To take it to the next step, one can thus create something out of nothing. Fractional reserve banking, for example.
To take it to the next step, one can thus create something out of nothing. Fractional reserve banking, for example.
Credit conquers the community order
The peasant's morality and life were rooted in a daily life with maintenance of common fields and forests, and every day cooperation. Trade was based on credit, with a general reckoning held once or twice a year. At this, any tallies which could not be fully settled could be paid in cash. Markets were thus based on trust and social pressure, and were a form of mutual aid.
Cash was reserved for transactions with strangers, and (ominously) between landed gentry, and in the government for war expenses. Thus government saw cash as normal and credit as criminal, while the villagers has the reverse perspective.
Hobbes creates scandal by arguing that the villager's world would not work, since people pursue their own self interest. Note the word. Interest is the demand that money never cease to grow. Like self-love (as opposed to love of God), Hobbe's assumption is the Christian one that we are all incorrigible sinners at heart.
The origin of capitalism is the story of the gradual destruction of traditional communities by the impersonal, government enforced, debt and cash based economy. The state legalized intrest-bearing loans, but enforcement was harsh (death sentence, prison, ...). So community life became hazardous, since accepting a favor gave the other party power to utterly destroy you.
Cash was reserved for transactions with strangers, and (ominously) between landed gentry, and in the government for war expenses. Thus government saw cash as normal and credit as criminal, while the villagers has the reverse perspective.
Hobbes creates scandal by arguing that the villager's world would not work, since people pursue their own self interest. Note the word. Interest is the demand that money never cease to grow. Like self-love (as opposed to love of God), Hobbe's assumption is the Christian one that we are all incorrigible sinners at heart.
The origin of capitalism is the story of the gradual destruction of traditional communities by the impersonal, government enforced, debt and cash based economy. The state legalized intrest-bearing loans, but enforcement was harsh (death sentence, prison, ...). So community life became hazardous, since accepting a favor gave the other party power to utterly destroy you.
Capitalist Empires
The Age of Exploration, 1450, a return to gold and silver as currency, and along with it professional armies, massive predatory warefare, usury and debt peonage, and materialism, science, and arts.
Also the time of the black death.
Most of the gold went to temples in India, and the silver to China. The Chinese demand for European silver made it all possible. In the early 17th century, China was importing 116 tons of silver per year. They paid for it in silk and porcelin.
Yet in this Tudor England, coin was in very short supply. Yet taxes HAD to be paid in metal.
The mines in the Americas were pits of hell, with dead bodies for miles around. The savage, insatiable hunger of the conquistidors for treasure -- was it because no matter how much they got, they could not pay off their debts? Cortez conquered a continent, yet could not pay his bills.
This was reminiscent of the 4th crusade, during which indebted knights would strip whole cities of their wealth, only to find themselves one small step ahead of their creditors. And the creditors were the same, the bankers of Northern Italy.
Debt leading to a psychology of cold, calculating greed, complicated by shame and righteous indignation, frantic urgency of debts which only grow, and outrage that they should be held to owe anything at all.
But this age saw the logic of money gain autonomy from the state, until political and military power were reorganized around it. Now the state became involved in debt enforcement.
Also the time of the black death.
Most of the gold went to temples in India, and the silver to China. The Chinese demand for European silver made it all possible. In the early 17th century, China was importing 116 tons of silver per year. They paid for it in silk and porcelin.
Yet in this Tudor England, coin was in very short supply. Yet taxes HAD to be paid in metal.
The mines in the Americas were pits of hell, with dead bodies for miles around. The savage, insatiable hunger of the conquistidors for treasure -- was it because no matter how much they got, they could not pay off their debts? Cortez conquered a continent, yet could not pay his bills.
This was reminiscent of the 4th crusade, during which indebted knights would strip whole cities of their wealth, only to find themselves one small step ahead of their creditors. And the creditors were the same, the bankers of Northern Italy.
Debt leading to a psychology of cold, calculating greed, complicated by shame and righteous indignation, frantic urgency of debts which only grow, and outrage that they should be held to owe anything at all.
But this age saw the logic of money gain autonomy from the state, until political and military power were reorganized around it. Now the state became involved in debt enforcement.
psychology of debt
Greaber in a nutshell:
Unfettered debt creates a world of all against all, unprincipled cold-blooded calculation with outbursts of inexplicably vindictive cruelty. The motivation is the debtor feeling he has done nothing wrong to find himself in this trap, the frantic urgency of having to convert everything around him into money in order to escape ti, and rage and indignation at having been reduced to the kind of person who does this thing.
Seems to me that this is like drug addiction.
Unfettered debt creates a world of all against all, unprincipled cold-blooded calculation with outbursts of inexplicably vindictive cruelty. The motivation is the debtor feeling he has done nothing wrong to find himself in this trap, the frantic urgency of having to convert everything around him into money in order to escape ti, and rage and indignation at having been reduced to the kind of person who does this thing.
Seems to me that this is like drug addiction.
Living longer
We have a 2200% increase in the number of people living to age 100, compared to a doubling of the overall population (US figures, with 53000 centenarians).
As recently as 1995, for instance, a man with advanced coronary disease was flatly uninsurable. Now it's expected that an arterial blockage can be repaired relatively simply and new plaque buildups can often be controlled with medication, so that life expectancy is only modestly affected.
from SmartMoney
As recently as 1995, for instance, a man with advanced coronary disease was flatly uninsurable. Now it's expected that an arterial blockage can be repaired relatively simply and new plaque buildups can often be controlled with medication, so that life expectancy is only modestly affected.
from SmartMoney
Lisa Harouni: A primer on 3D printing
Lisa Harouni
Looks like she works for a company in the 3d printing business.
We've had 3d printing for 30 years. Is this the year of its breakthrough?
Think Kinkos, but with a 3d printer.
You can print in metal (steel, titanium, ...) or plastic or imitation sandstone or ..., items up to 3 meters tall.
Printing allows for intricacies of design beyond what even the most skilled artesian can achieve by hand.
Mass customization. She claims it is profitable for runs of 1, you don't need big production and there is no economy of scale.
What about printing replacement parts for old items? Why not?
What about if these items are biological-- 3d printing with cells to create new organs. It works in the lab.
You can also print medical grade metals with honeycomb structure, which the body prefers for implants.
Replacement teeth printed for you at the dentist, while you wait.
Looks like she works for a company in the 3d printing business.
We've had 3d printing for 30 years. Is this the year of its breakthrough?
Think Kinkos, but with a 3d printer.
You can print in metal (steel, titanium, ...) or plastic or imitation sandstone or ..., items up to 3 meters tall.
Printing allows for intricacies of design beyond what even the most skilled artesian can achieve by hand.
Mass customization. She claims it is profitable for runs of 1, you don't need big production and there is no economy of scale.
What about printing replacement parts for old items? Why not?
What about if these items are biological-- 3d printing with cells to create new organs. It works in the lab.
You can also print medical grade metals with honeycomb structure, which the body prefers for implants.
Replacement teeth printed for you at the dentist, while you wait.
Peter van Uhm: Why I chose a gun
Peter van Uhm, head of the Dutch army, on why he chooses a gun as his instrument for shaping the world.
His argument is the need for violence to control violent men, and that this is justifyable when the violence is the monopoly of the state AND accountable to the people (independent judiciary, politicos held accountable to the people).
I agree with his reasoning, and wonder what happens when the state looses its legitimacy but does not surrender its monopoy power on weaponry.
His argument is the need for violence to control violent men, and that this is justifyable when the violence is the monopoly of the state AND accountable to the people (independent judiciary, politicos held accountable to the people).
I agree with his reasoning, and wonder what happens when the state looses its legitimacy but does not surrender its monopoy power on weaponry.
Consequences of human life extenstion -- Ken Dychwald
Right. So we can live to 120 or more.
What are we going to do with the time?
How will society adopt?
The tyrrany of the old??
Will we live healthily? What about dementia, which claims at least 25% of people over 70. What % of people over 100 will have dementia, in an age where life expectancy is 120?
What if life extension is only for the rich?
What are we going to do with the time?
How will society adopt?
The tyrrany of the old??
Will we live healthily? What about dementia, which claims at least 25% of people over 70. What % of people over 100 will have dementia, in an age where life expectancy is 120?
What if life extension is only for the rich?
Prospect of human life extension-- Michael West
He discusses technologies which will enable us to extend human lifespan.
We don't know how long our kids will live. Technology currently working in the lab should extend their lifespans to 120 or so, but in another 50 years, the tech could easily be good enough to extend lifespan to 500 or so.
Attainable lifespan is growing faster than 1 year/year, meaning with each passing year, we gain more than one year of extra life.
We don't know how long our kids will live. Technology currently working in the lab should extend their lifespans to 120 or so, but in another 50 years, the tech could easily be good enough to extend lifespan to 500 or so.
Attainable lifespan is growing faster than 1 year/year, meaning with each passing year, we gain more than one year of extra life.
The lean startup -- eric ries
Not up to linking this guy, he is a fad.
Release your software every 15 mintues.
How to build an IT startup.
Get some fans, some early adopters. Make your software do what they want.
Assume you are going to screw up, so plan accordingly:
make learning the explicit goal.
schedule the "pivot point" meeting early
Don't commit to a feature until you know it is wanted.
Shallow prototypes-- have a human make it work if you need to. (think Zapatos, who kept no inventory, but would buy retail to meet orders)
Release your software every 15 mintues.
How to build an IT startup.
Get some fans, some early adopters. Make your software do what they want.
Assume you are going to screw up, so plan accordingly:
make learning the explicit goal.
schedule the "pivot point" meeting early
Don't commit to a feature until you know it is wanted.
Shallow prototypes-- have a human make it work if you need to. (think Zapatos, who kept no inventory, but would buy retail to meet orders)
Trading rules
Nothing new, but nice to see people's lists. This from Joe Fahmy, clipped from ritholtz
Note also that these are rules for a trader, not an investor.
1) Accumulation and Distribution Days: When should traders go to cash? Follow the big boys! The big institutions control the market, so pay attention to their actions by tracking accumulation and distribution days. When institutional selling builds up over a short period of time (2-4 weeks) AND leading stocks start to break down, that is a great sign to start raising cash.
2) Uptrends and Downtrends: Don’t get caught up with the terms Bull and Bear market. Just recognize if we are in an uptrend or a downtrend. For example, use the 50-day moving average on the NASDAQ Composite as a general indicator to be in or out of the market.
3) Scale In: When conditions start to improve, SLOWLY scale back in. If the rally is for real, there will be PLENTY OF TIME to make money. If you are wrong, at least you can get out quick with minimal damage and protect your portfolio. Think Defense First!
4) Buy the Strongest Earnings & Sales Growth: When markets are in a confirmed uptrend, be in the best! Don’t settle for low rate stocks. Look for companies that have strong earnings and sales growth.
5) Fundamentals AND Technicals: Start with strong fundamental companies AND combine the proper technical timing to identify ideal entry points to effect your best risk vs reward trades.
Note also that these are rules for a trader, not an investor.
1) Accumulation and Distribution Days: When should traders go to cash? Follow the big boys! The big institutions control the market, so pay attention to their actions by tracking accumulation and distribution days. When institutional selling builds up over a short period of time (2-4 weeks) AND leading stocks start to break down, that is a great sign to start raising cash.
2) Uptrends and Downtrends: Don’t get caught up with the terms Bull and Bear market. Just recognize if we are in an uptrend or a downtrend. For example, use the 50-day moving average on the NASDAQ Composite as a general indicator to be in or out of the market.
3) Scale In: When conditions start to improve, SLOWLY scale back in. If the rally is for real, there will be PLENTY OF TIME to make money. If you are wrong, at least you can get out quick with minimal damage and protect your portfolio. Think Defense First!
4) Buy the Strongest Earnings & Sales Growth: When markets are in a confirmed uptrend, be in the best! Don’t settle for low rate stocks. Look for companies that have strong earnings and sales growth.
5) Fundamentals AND Technicals: Start with strong fundamental companies AND combine the proper technical timing to identify ideal entry points to effect your best risk vs reward trades.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Spelling in a digital age
Many people argue that spelling no longer matters, or beg for a return to "individualized spelling"
When spelling recorded sounds, perhaps individual spelling, or lack of convention, made sense. But now we read visually. Few of us sound out the words we read. And this requires proper spelling. Else we must translate letters to sounds to word (which we then see in our own spelling) to meaning. The effort slows down reading and hurts comprehension. You loose the flow
When spelling recorded sounds, perhaps individual spelling, or lack of convention, made sense. But now we read visually. Few of us sound out the words we read. And this requires proper spelling. Else we must translate letters to sounds to word (which we then see in our own spelling) to meaning. The effort slows down reading and hurts comprehension. You loose the flow
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
nature of money
A market requires/enables us to compare two fundamentally different objects, with few if any common quantities or qualities. How much steak is there in a shirt?
How do you do this? By using a third thing, which in itself has no qualities at all nor any purpose other than to mediate exchange.
The implication is that lending money at interest is a perversion, since one is using money as an end in itself. "Money is not created to earn money." The argument is raised again by Thomas Aquinas and Henry of Ghent.
We, today, might disagree with that sentiment. But compare it to what came before. Money at interest leads quickly to debt, which leads to the people being enslaved as debt peons, or worse.
How do you do this? By using a third thing, which in itself has no qualities at all nor any purpose other than to mediate exchange.
The implication is that lending money at interest is a perversion, since one is using money as an end in itself. "Money is not created to earn money." The argument is raised again by Thomas Aquinas and Henry of Ghent.
We, today, might disagree with that sentiment. But compare it to what came before. Money at interest leads quickly to debt, which leads to the people being enslaved as debt peons, or worse.
Middle ages arabia -- credit based capitalism
During the Middle Ages, Arabia was the core and expansive edge of Western civilization. They viewed law as divine, coming from the Prophet, but government as an unfortunate necessity.
In previous ages, Middle Eastern civilizations had been dominated by an alliance between the government (administrators) and merchants, both of whom kept the rest of the people either in debt peonage or in constant peril of falling into it. During the middle ages, the merchants changed sides, and became leaders of the society against the evils of the state.
The merchant was a venerated man, a hero. We also see the world's first popular free-market ideology. Adam Smith seems to have borrowed heavily from it.
But we must be mindful of the huge cultural gap betweeen this region and time, and Adam Smith's. Smith saw the market as pursuit of individual advantage. The Islamics saw it as extending mutual aid.
If all men were equal, all would perish -- specialization of labor is needed and good
Markets are about cooperation, not competition.
The king once summoned Nasruddin to court.
"Tell me," said the king, "You are a mystic, a philosopher, a man of great understanding. I have become interested in the issue of value. It is an interesting philosophical question. How does one establish the true value of an object, or a person? Take me, for example. If I were to ask you to estimate my value, what would you say?"
"Oh", Nasruddin replied, "I'd say around 200 dollars."
The King was stunned. "What! But this belt I am wearing is worth 200 dollars!"
"I know." replied Nasruddin. "Actually, I was taking the value of the belt into consideration."
In previous ages, Middle Eastern civilizations had been dominated by an alliance between the government (administrators) and merchants, both of whom kept the rest of the people either in debt peonage or in constant peril of falling into it. During the middle ages, the merchants changed sides, and became leaders of the society against the evils of the state.
The merchant was a venerated man, a hero. We also see the world's first popular free-market ideology. Adam Smith seems to have borrowed heavily from it.
But we must be mindful of the huge cultural gap betweeen this region and time, and Adam Smith's. Smith saw the market as pursuit of individual advantage. The Islamics saw it as extending mutual aid.
When men render aid to each other, each one performing one of these important tasks that are beyond the measure of his own capacity, and observing the law of justice in transactions by giving greatly and receiving in exchange of the labor of others, then the means of livelihood are realized, and the succession of the individual and the survival of the species are assured.
-- quoting Tusi's Nasirean Ethics
If all men were equal, all would perish -- specialization of labor is needed and good
Markets are about cooperation, not competition.
Capitalism and markets
Capitalism and markets are as much opposites as equivalent. In a market, one uses the medium of money to turn one commodity into another. C-M-C'. In capitalism, one uses the medium of commodities to turn money into more money M-C-M+.
How to twitter (guest post)
My brother Mike (@mclawyer)
send me the following
Here's my quick and dirty guide to twitter:
1. The first thing is activity. Use an app like buffer to enhance your presence online so you can be active when your followers are, even if you're asleep at that time. Use an app like socialbro to figure out when your followers are active.
2. The minimum viable tweet is a headline and a link to an article you find interesting. This is even better if you have enough charatcters to say something (i.e. interesting, needs more research, pompous but insightful, etc.)
3. tweet about events you're at. These tend to have hash tags and are the best way to pick up new followers. If they're interested in the event, they're interested in the people at the event.
4. mix up your types of tweets. The occasional funny or odd hobby are appreciated. Twitter values you being a real person. Ideally you develop a rough formula for this. i.e. 2 tweets about science a day, 1 tweet about side project (diving, shooting, skiing, whateves) 1 tweet you found funny, 1 tweet about things you just think are cool, 1 tweet of your content. This can be varied depending on what you actually want to tweet about, but don't feel bound by message discipline concerns.
5. grow by getting the attention of the slightly bigger than you. use @mentions to start conversations with people. Remember this is a digital cocktail party and social paring matters. Someone with 10,000 followers will not likely respond to an @mention from someone with 10 followers unless your timing is really good or you say something really funny. On the other hand someone with 300 followers will respond to every @message that isn't selling penis pills. You can climb, but you have to take it steps at a time.
6. retweets are sort of like saying +1. give them generously, people love love.
7. Actually read other peoples tweets - it is a two way communication stream. That said, don't feel like you have to read them all. That's like saying you'll watch youtube, all of it. can't be done.
send me the following
Here's my quick and dirty guide to twitter:
1. The first thing is activity. Use an app like buffer to enhance your presence online so you can be active when your followers are, even if you're asleep at that time. Use an app like socialbro to figure out when your followers are active.
2. The minimum viable tweet is a headline and a link to an article you find interesting. This is even better if you have enough charatcters to say something (i.e. interesting, needs more research, pompous but insightful, etc.)
3. tweet about events you're at. These tend to have hash tags and are the best way to pick up new followers. If they're interested in the event, they're interested in the people at the event.
4. mix up your types of tweets. The occasional funny or odd hobby are appreciated. Twitter values you being a real person. Ideally you develop a rough formula for this. i.e. 2 tweets about science a day, 1 tweet about side project (diving, shooting, skiing, whateves) 1 tweet you found funny, 1 tweet about things you just think are cool, 1 tweet of your content. This can be varied depending on what you actually want to tweet about, but don't feel bound by message discipline concerns.
5. grow by getting the attention of the slightly bigger than you. use @mentions to start conversations with people. Remember this is a digital cocktail party and social paring matters. Someone with 10,000 followers will not likely respond to an @mention from someone with 10 followers unless your timing is really good or you say something really funny. On the other hand someone with 300 followers will respond to every @message that isn't selling penis pills. You can climb, but you have to take it steps at a time.
6. retweets are sort of like saying +1. give them generously, people love love.
7. Actually read other peoples tweets - it is a two way communication stream. That said, don't feel like you have to read them all. That's like saying you'll watch youtube, all of it. can't be done.
Finite and Infinite games -- James Carse
This book topped alot of "it will change your life" lists. I am less sure.
Written by James Carse, talk available at the Long Now
Prof Carse is professor emeritus at NYU, where he directed the religious studies program for many years.
A finite game has a defined end, and a defined winner. War is the ultimate finite game. Basketball is a less violent and shorter example.
An infinte game is played with the purpose of continuing to play. It has no end, and the concept of winning doesn't exist. Free-form building with legos, for example. Religion as another.
Finite games impose boundaries or rules.
Infinte games have horizons.
Finite games are entered willingly yet exiting is involuntary.
Infinte games can be entered involuntarily, yet exiting is voluntary.
Likewise, we can concieve of dramatic (requiring participation, infinite) or theatrical (participation is optional, preset goals) games.
Prof Carse started school at age 4 and never left (his words). His lack of engagement in the "real world" shows in his philosophy, which does not appear to be harded by fire.
Written by James Carse, talk available at the Long Now
Prof Carse is professor emeritus at NYU, where he directed the religious studies program for many years.
A finite game has a defined end, and a defined winner. War is the ultimate finite game. Basketball is a less violent and shorter example.
An infinte game is played with the purpose of continuing to play. It has no end, and the concept of winning doesn't exist. Free-form building with legos, for example. Religion as another.
Finite games impose boundaries or rules.
Infinte games have horizons.
Finite games are entered willingly yet exiting is involuntary.
Infinte games can be entered involuntarily, yet exiting is voluntary.
Likewise, we can concieve of dramatic (requiring participation, infinite) or theatrical (participation is optional, preset goals) games.
Prof Carse started school at age 4 and never left (his words). His lack of engagement in the "real world" shows in his philosophy, which does not appear to be harded by fire.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
dynamic dividends
Clipped (almost) verbatim from http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/02/01/when-stocks-declare-their-first-dividend-look-out/
The Dynamic Dividend is dedicated to helping income investors identify quality opportunities through dividend stock news, tools, tips, statistics, and ideas.
If the data I’ve collected over the last six months is any indication, a very strong case can be made for the initiation of a dividend as a signal that a stock is about to generate market-beating returns.
Below I’ve put together a comprehensive table of stocks that have announced the initiation of a regular dividend (or distribution, in the case of an MLP) since August 1, 2011. I’ve also included each stock’s performance since the announcement, alongside the S&P 500′s performance (via the SPY) during the same period. The results are pretty staggering.
Of the 36 stocks listed, only three are currently trading lower than their final closing price prior to declaring their first payout, and only seven have been outperformed by the S&P 500 since the same announcement. The average gain by the new dividend stocks (22.75%) is an absurd 15.67% better than the average gain by the S&P 500 (7.09%) during comparable periods.
Some highlights include: SMF Energy gaining 182% (vs. 17% for the S&P 500), Ebix gaining 58% (vs. 12%), Intuit gaining 40% (vs. 14%), Xyratex gaining 68% (vs. 2%), and Emcor Group gaining 53% (vs. 16%). Solutia has popped 77%, thanks in large part to Eastman agreeing to pay a 42% premium for the company last week.
Clearly today’s low interest rate environment has had a major impact on these numbers, as income investors are latching on to anything with yield. But the figures below describe a staggering blowout, nonetheless. Notice the absurd lack of red across the board.
Company Initiated* Performance S&P 500 Alpha
Inergy Midstream LP (NRGM) 1/26/2012 -0.39% -0.52% 0.13%
Rose Rock Midstream LP (RRMS) 1/23/2012 1.55% -0.28% 1.83%
Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH) 1/18/2012 9.36% 0.31% 9.05%
Agilent Technologies Inc. (A) 1/17/2012 6.20% 1.47% 4.73%
Electro Scientific Industries, Inc. (ESIO) 1/12/2012 -2.69% 1.31% -4.00%
CSP Inc. (CSPI) 1/11/2012 19.24% 1.52% 17.73%
Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) (FMCN) 1/9/2012 6.89% 2.52% 4.38%
Genie Energy Ltd (GNE) 1/8/2012 24.67% 2.52% 22.16%
Kensey Nash Corporation (KNSY) 1/3/2012 17.28% 2.92% 14.36%
Solutia Inc. (SOA) 12/14/2011 84.69% 7.81% 76.88%
First Connecticut Bancorp Inc (FBNK) 11/23/2011 6.94% 12.57% -5.63%
Griffon Corporation (GFF) 11/17/2011 17.16% 7.39% 9.77%
IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) 11/2/2011 8.82% 5.82% 2.99%
Noranda Aluminum Holding Corporation (NOR) 11/1/2011 21.84% 7.48% 14.36%
Lexmark International Inc (LXK) 10/27/2011 11.04% 2.97% 8.07%
PCTEL, Inc. (PCTI) 10/21/2011 16.07% 5.89% 10.18%
Oiltanking Partners LP (OILT) 10/20/2011 14.91% 7.82% 7.08%
Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. (CORE) 10/18/2011 21.55% 7.01% 14.54%
Acorn Energy, Inc. (ACFN) 10/14/2011 20.39% 7.06% 13.33%
HSN, Inc. (HSNI) 9/27/2011 1.45% 11.57% -10.12%
Emcor Group Inc (EME) 9/23/2011 53.19% 15.56% 37.63%
Hecla Mining Company (HL) 9/19/2011 -25.07% 9.06% -34.13%
ProAssurance Corporation (PRA) 9/7/2011 13.15% 9.10% 4.06%
Ebix, Inc. (EBIX) 9/6/2011 57.83% 12.15% 45.68%
Westway Group, Inc. (WWAY) 8/30/2011 26.70% 7.89% 18.81%
Nicholas Financial, Inc. (NICK) 8/29/2011 11.76% 8.10% 3.67%
CECO Environmental Corp. (CECE) 8/24/2011 12.04% 11.07% 0.97%
Intuit Inc. (INTU) 8/18/2011 40.05% 14.48% 25.57%
Celadon Group, Inc. (CGI) 8/16/2011 32.54% 9.74% 22.79%
New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC) 8/11/2011 11.93% 11.88% 0.05%
Kingstone Companies, Inc. (KINS) 8/11/2011 6.26% 11.88% -5.61%
DSW Inc. (DSW) 8/9/2011 5.16% 11.79% -6.64%
SMF Energy Corporations (FUEL) 8/8/2011 182.22% 16.88% 165.34%
Allied Motion Technologies, Inc. (AMOT) 8/3/2011 12.45% 3.96% 8.49%
J2 Global Inc (JCOM) 8/2/2011 3.77% 4.56% -0.79%
Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) 8/1/2011 68.22% 1.94% 66.28%
Averages 22.75% 7.09% 15.67%
The Dynamic Dividend is dedicated to helping income investors identify quality opportunities through dividend stock news, tools, tips, statistics, and ideas.
If the data I’ve collected over the last six months is any indication, a very strong case can be made for the initiation of a dividend as a signal that a stock is about to generate market-beating returns.
Below I’ve put together a comprehensive table of stocks that have announced the initiation of a regular dividend (or distribution, in the case of an MLP) since August 1, 2011. I’ve also included each stock’s performance since the announcement, alongside the S&P 500′s performance (via the SPY) during the same period. The results are pretty staggering.
Of the 36 stocks listed, only three are currently trading lower than their final closing price prior to declaring their first payout, and only seven have been outperformed by the S&P 500 since the same announcement. The average gain by the new dividend stocks (22.75%) is an absurd 15.67% better than the average gain by the S&P 500 (7.09%) during comparable periods.
Some highlights include: SMF Energy gaining 182% (vs. 17% for the S&P 500), Ebix gaining 58% (vs. 12%), Intuit gaining 40% (vs. 14%), Xyratex gaining 68% (vs. 2%), and Emcor Group gaining 53% (vs. 16%). Solutia has popped 77%, thanks in large part to Eastman agreeing to pay a 42% premium for the company last week.
Clearly today’s low interest rate environment has had a major impact on these numbers, as income investors are latching on to anything with yield. But the figures below describe a staggering blowout, nonetheless. Notice the absurd lack of red across the board.
Company Initiated* Performance S&P 500 Alpha
Inergy Midstream LP (NRGM) 1/26/2012 -0.39% -0.52% 0.13%
Rose Rock Midstream LP (RRMS) 1/23/2012 1.55% -0.28% 1.83%
Zimmer Holdings, Inc. (ZMH) 1/18/2012 9.36% 0.31% 9.05%
Agilent Technologies Inc. (A) 1/17/2012 6.20% 1.47% 4.73%
Electro Scientific Industries, Inc. (ESIO) 1/12/2012 -2.69% 1.31% -4.00%
CSP Inc. (CSPI) 1/11/2012 19.24% 1.52% 17.73%
Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) (FMCN) 1/9/2012 6.89% 2.52% 4.38%
Genie Energy Ltd (GNE) 1/8/2012 24.67% 2.52% 22.16%
Kensey Nash Corporation (KNSY) 1/3/2012 17.28% 2.92% 14.36%
Solutia Inc. (SOA) 12/14/2011 84.69% 7.81% 76.88%
First Connecticut Bancorp Inc (FBNK) 11/23/2011 6.94% 12.57% -5.63%
Griffon Corporation (GFF) 11/17/2011 17.16% 7.39% 9.77%
IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI) 11/2/2011 8.82% 5.82% 2.99%
Noranda Aluminum Holding Corporation (NOR) 11/1/2011 21.84% 7.48% 14.36%
Lexmark International Inc (LXK) 10/27/2011 11.04% 2.97% 8.07%
PCTEL, Inc. (PCTI) 10/21/2011 16.07% 5.89% 10.18%
Oiltanking Partners LP (OILT) 10/20/2011 14.91% 7.82% 7.08%
Core-Mark Holding Company, Inc. (CORE) 10/18/2011 21.55% 7.01% 14.54%
Acorn Energy, Inc. (ACFN) 10/14/2011 20.39% 7.06% 13.33%
HSN, Inc. (HSNI) 9/27/2011 1.45% 11.57% -10.12%
Emcor Group Inc (EME) 9/23/2011 53.19% 15.56% 37.63%
Hecla Mining Company (HL) 9/19/2011 -25.07% 9.06% -34.13%
ProAssurance Corporation (PRA) 9/7/2011 13.15% 9.10% 4.06%
Ebix, Inc. (EBIX) 9/6/2011 57.83% 12.15% 45.68%
Westway Group, Inc. (WWAY) 8/30/2011 26.70% 7.89% 18.81%
Nicholas Financial, Inc. (NICK) 8/29/2011 11.76% 8.10% 3.67%
CECO Environmental Corp. (CECE) 8/24/2011 12.04% 11.07% 0.97%
Intuit Inc. (INTU) 8/18/2011 40.05% 14.48% 25.57%
Celadon Group, Inc. (CGI) 8/16/2011 32.54% 9.74% 22.79%
New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC) 8/11/2011 11.93% 11.88% 0.05%
Kingstone Companies, Inc. (KINS) 8/11/2011 6.26% 11.88% -5.61%
DSW Inc. (DSW) 8/9/2011 5.16% 11.79% -6.64%
SMF Energy Corporations (FUEL) 8/8/2011 182.22% 16.88% 165.34%
Allied Motion Technologies, Inc. (AMOT) 8/3/2011 12.45% 3.96% 8.49%
J2 Global Inc (JCOM) 8/2/2011 3.77% 4.56% -0.79%
Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX) 8/1/2011 68.22% 1.94% 66.28%
Averages 22.75% 7.09% 15.67%
Spider webs break, repair don't replace
From Nature(full article here)
A web's strands of silk adapt to the amount of stress they experience, and how that stress is loaded onto them. Under a light stress, a gentle highland breeze perhaps, the silk softens and extends, so allowing the web to retain its structure. But when a larger and more disruptive force strikes — such as a hand groping for a light switch in a dark attic — the silk strands first extend, then the most stretched of those strands become suddenly rigid and so break. This sacrifice of a strand or two localizes the damage, and keeps the rest of the web intact. Once the disturbance has passed, the spider can scurry out to repair the web, rather than being forced to rebuild.
How to make the analogy to an adoptive network?
A web's strands of silk adapt to the amount of stress they experience, and how that stress is loaded onto them. Under a light stress, a gentle highland breeze perhaps, the silk softens and extends, so allowing the web to retain its structure. But when a larger and more disruptive force strikes — such as a hand groping for a light switch in a dark attic — the silk strands first extend, then the most stretched of those strands become suddenly rigid and so break. This sacrifice of a strand or two localizes the damage, and keeps the rest of the web intact. Once the disturbance has passed, the spider can scurry out to repair the web, rather than being forced to rebuild.
How to make the analogy to an adoptive network?
Paul Hawken -- The Long Green (History of the eco movement)
Great talk by Paul Hawkin given at the Long Now.
Paul Hawken coined the term restoration economy, and popularized the ideas of ecosystem services and natural capital. His current thinking (courtesy of wikipedia)
Sound fades out at 41 minute mark. Some great historical nuggets and deep insights.
We live in a time when the dominant myth is end-times. True both for Islam and Christianity. Also Hindu signs of the end times.
In the 1800s and early 1900s, it was creation. It was also creationism, as in spontaneous generation or God made the world in its current form. Some of the same stuff Darwin fought agaist.
He has the Thoreau quote
The myth is important, since (in politics, over at least the last two centuries) theology trumps science.
Paul Hawken coined the term restoration economy, and popularized the ideas of ecosystem services and natural capital. His current thinking (courtesy of wikipedia)
It is axiomatic that we are at a threshold in human existence, a fundamental change in understanding about our relationship to nature and each other. We are moving from a world created by privilege to a world created by community. The current thrust of history is too supple to be labeled, but global themes are emerging in response to cascading ecological crises and human suffering. These ideas include the need for radical social change, the reinvention of market-based economics, the empowerment of women, activism on all levels, and the need for localized economic control. There are insistent calls for autonomy, appeals for a new resource ethic based on the tradition of the commons, demands for the reinstatement of cultural primacy over corporate hegemony, and a rising demand for radical transparency in politics and corporate decision making. It has been said that environmentalism failed as a movement, or worse yet, died. It is the other way around. Everyone on earth will be an environmentalist in the not too distant future, driven there by necessity and experience
Sound fades out at 41 minute mark. Some great historical nuggets and deep insights.
We live in a time when the dominant myth is end-times. True both for Islam and Christianity. Also Hindu signs of the end times.
In the 1800s and early 1900s, it was creation. It was also creationism, as in spontaneous generation or God made the world in its current form. Some of the same stuff Darwin fought agaist.
He has the Thoreau quote
I have great faith in a seed. Convince me that you have a seed in there, and I am prepared to expect wonders.This is from late in Thoreau's life.
The myth is important, since (in politics, over at least the last two centuries) theology trumps science.
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