Thursday, June 30, 2011

State of Wonder by Ann Patchett

The review in Time mag writes that this is a retelling of heart of darkness.
A woman ethnobiologist has found a fertility drug, deep in the Amazon, and then goes feral.

She doesn't respect indigenous healers, referring to their methods as "poorly recorded gossip handed down ... from people who knew very little to people who know even less."

And here I was today, thinking of what might make a good story idea. "The Honeybadger Diaries."

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Gold standard or competing currency?

A quote with no easy source:

When the same medium is used both as a store of value and as a medium of exchange, the result is an ineventable conflict between the interests of debters and savers.
...
In modern America, most people are both, with their savings equal to their debts, giving a net worth of zero.

The question on the title asks if the US should return to the gold standard OR allow a second gold-backed currency, which would be legal tender.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Tim Wu

Came up with the phrase net neutrality, consultant.

Starts with the story of a guy at Bell Labs, who invented magnetic recording. ATT squelched out because a survey showed that 2/3rd of phone calls were "indecent". They were afraid that people would stop using the phone if they thought they were being recorded.

Will the internet stay free? reviews history of other communication breakthroughs, all of which end up with a monopoly.

Positives: internet was designed with freedom in mind.

Negatives: economic principles and human nature. Most people want the bell curve, no one likes dissenters.

He seemed strangely unprepared for the questions. Most seemed obvious given his talk, but there was no evidence that he had rehearsed answers. In many cases it didn't even seem he had thought of the question.

He was carefully neutral on everything he said. Not strongly against anything. Not a boat rocker. Very concious that if he seemed anti business, or anti any one business, he would catch hell.

The New North-- Laurence Smith 03/24/2011

His focus is on the arctic, which he sees as a developing region as it is supposed to hold a large portion of the world's remaining undiscovered oil and gas.

The melting of the polar ice cap will make accessing these easier-- but only in some ways. Melting ice opens up the ocean, but closes the ice roads built across the tundra.

Global trends he considers-- urbanizing and growing and aging populations. The growing demand for electricity.

Monday, June 20, 2011

E-publishing

Article in Herald Trib on Amanda Hocking, who is the first major breakthrough author from self/e-publishing. She writes pulp fiction fantasy romance (her description, she has no pretension). The books take about a year to develop in her head and 4 weeks to write.

She studied books in bookstores to learn what worked, what sold. She priced her books low: under 3 bucks.She used Amazon and smashwords.

My idea: I want to write pop science books.

Diversity

Inspiration comes from the Wired article on the angels share, which commented that fungus live in every environment, no matter how hostile or artificial.

Thesis: single celled or simple life can maintain more diversity than larger forms, with extreme minority variants able to maintain the barest existence up until they happen upon favorable environments, such as a whiskey warehouse.

The general theme of preserving a few outliers just in case. Most of the time they are not god for much, but every now and then they save the species/civilization.

More from John Gray

Define progress as cumulative and irreversible change. This is clearly possible in science and technology, but he maintains it is not so in politics and ethics. Evidence: a US president condoning torture.

The crazyness of the war on drugs

Right, how is it that a country founded on the pursuit of happiness is so focused on a war on drugs?

More Sustainability

John Gray RSA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_N._Gray

More Sustainability. Doesn't this sound good? Don't you want it? Don't you want more of it?

Expands on his philosophy that "volition, and hence morality, as an illusion, and portrays humanity as a ravenous species engaged in wiping out other forms of life. Gray writes that 'humans ... cannot destroy the Earth, but they can easily wreck the environment that sustains them" -- from the Wikipedia article

Not every human culture has been built on capitalism. But is there another way?

What about science as the new magic

"The core of the belief in progress is that human values and goals converge in parallel with our increasing knowledge... Science made possible the technologies that powered the industrial revolution. In the twentieth century, these technologies were used to implement state terror and genocide on an unprecedented scale. Ethics and politics do not advance in line with the growth of knowledge — not even in the long run."


Which reminds me of my earlier thoughts on The Lord of the Rings as the death song of the agrarian society. Harry Potter is the new king. I just noticed that HP has few animals, and even fewer nature references. Yes, tons of magical creatures, but there is such a strong urban basis. And, as I have remarked earlier, HP is strictly visual, while LOTR is auditory, a collection of the best folk tales and characters of 500 years of civilization.

Which brought me to wonder what the folk tales of the new world should be, when everything is in the grid.

Today is rainy.

And the song for the day. Landslide, by Fleetwood Mac, whose only good album (Rumors) was written as their marriages were falling apart. (ok, Tusk was also pretty good).

"Oh, mirror in the sky, what is love?
Can the child within my heart rise above?
Can I sail thru the changing ocean tides?
Can I handle the seasons of my life?"

see also Dreams
"Now here I go again, I see the crystal visions
I keep my visions to myself
It's only me who wants to wrap around your dreams and
Have you any dreams you'd like to sell?
Dreams of Loneliness like a heartbeat, drives you mad
In the stillness of remembering
What you had
and what you lost
And what you had
Oh what you lost.

...

When the rain washes you clean you'll know
You'll know.."

Did I mention that it has been raining (and cold) for the last 2 weeeks?

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Torula

A new word!

From the Wired article, "The Angel's Share":

Torula is a junk genus, now seen less as a proper taxonomical designation and more as a drawer that old-time researcher threw brownish black fungi into when they didn't fit anywhere else.

Let's make this a generic term-- we need a catch-all box.

From: wisegeek.com
Torula is a yeast which is formally known as Candida utilis. Torula ... preferring cellulose-rich substrates such as wood, leaf litter, and paper pulp. In several regions, people deliberately cultivate this yeast for industrial purposes, usually on a substrate of wood pulp which makes the yeast easy to extract.

This yeast can be used to provide dietary supplementation, especially in food for cats and dogs, where its high protein content is very useful. It is also used in the production of food for farmed fish and other food products. The slightly meaty flavor of this yeast, which lacks the bitterness many people associate with yeasts, causes some companies to use it as a flavor enhancer in some foods, especially packaged foods.

apropos partisanship

A related email from my friend Lars which arrived at about the same time:

it fascinates me how Republicans think the US consitution is a libertarian policy document. It sets up a system, a procedure, for making laws, with elections and checks and balances etc., it doesn't prescribe economic policy. One of the arguments of Republicans is, so if the federal govt. can mandate health insurance, it can also mandate you to buy broccoli. Well, that's up the the people, try running on that platform! The point is, it's the American people who decide if they want certain policies or not. I agree, the ACA is messy and imperfect but that's because the Republicans refused to cooperate, putting party before country the decided to sabotage anything Obama did because they knew "if he's successful on this - and on the economy -, we've lost the WH for a couple of decades." The ACA is very close to Bob Dole's plan back in the early 90'ies, which was backed by the Heritage Foundation and several Rep. Senators as an alternative to "Hillary care," so it's not like this is something they're really against. It's just that if Obama is for it, it must be un-American. Personally, I think a single-payer system, with death panels, is the way to go.


http://www.slate.com/id/2283415/pagenum/all/#p2


One of the commenters argued my point exactly:

"One hugely important realization you have to make is just because it something is a bad idea, doesn't mean it is unconstitutional."

re: Partisanship is destroying the US

Hi Glenn -- I think he has tail & dog mixed up. The problem is structure, which rewards partisanship and punishes those who appeal to the middle. My take is that in the state (MN) we have gone from dysfunctional to toxic, as the government is due to shut down completely come July 1 because there is no budget agreement. The national scene is not quite that bad, but not far behind. My larger concern is that if reform within the system were possible, we wouldn't have already reached the present state.

Love, Dad

Partisanship is destroying the US

nteresting article in the Atlantic on what is wrong with US politics, by Mickey Edwards (represented Oklahoma in the House for 16 years). He says the problem boils down to partisanship, which is enforced by parts of the political structure. Now we all know this, and his solution isn't anything new, but it is nice to see it in one place.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2011/07/how-to-turn-republicans-and-democrats-into-americans/8521/

His solution is
Open primaries
Redistricting by independent nonpartisan commissions
Allow members of any party to offer amendments to any house bill
Change leadership structure of congressional committees to give the minority party a voice
Choose committee staff based on professional qualification, not party loyatly

My thoughts are that the first two points are the most important.

Happy weekend to you!

Phylogenetics

Analogy between a preferential attachment graph and a DPM.  Is there a 2 parameter version of the graph?

Friday, June 17, 2011

Branko Milanovic-- Global Income Inequality

He is an economist with the world bank
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Branko_Milanovi%C4%87

Looks at income distributions within nations, between nations, and globally. Gini curves and things like that.

The poorest in the US are in the upper 62% worldwide

Brazil spans the range, their poorest are as poor as anyone on earth (bottom 2%), while their richest are as rich as anyone on earth.

Social mobility is more common in countries with less income inequalities.

The central american countries have equal income distributions, while Asian countries do not.

Where you are born is a stronger determinant than your social class.

Ok, and some points he forgets to mention. The world has more weath today than ever before (by today meaning the last 15 years, today today seems a bit down from a year ago). So of course there is more room for inequality. In a substinance agricultural society, it is really really hard to get more than a 5:1 income range, since the level of economic production is so limited.

Also, no discussion on wether poor today is better than middle income 100 years ago.

But an interesting comment from the audience, that in extreme rural villiages (like 1 week walk from anywhere else) people are happy and don't think they are poor, even though they are not far above the substinance level. Relative to what they know, they are doing well.

This principle of course extends, and, while he did not mention it, many other have said that this awareness is some of what lay behind the Arab Spring.

The meaning of life's milestones-- Robert Rowland Smith (28 Jan 2011)

Starts with the meaning of life, for which he quotes 4 main philosophical themes:
1) no meaning (sarte)
2) perfecting the self (humanism)
3) service to others
4) service to God

Then he looks at some life milestones (birth, school, etc) and offers some tidbits of wisdom on each.

He presents well. Lots of dry humor ("At the end we will talk about death, just to leave things on a high note"). Great voice, pauses, diction.

He lost me, however, when he posited the mind/body duality. This is so overwhelmingly false. He especially claimed that the body moves foward in time, you cannot be younger nor older than you are, but that the mind does not. Yet he has his own counter-example, which was that a young man can easily imagine where he is going, but a middle-aged man somehow can not-- at that age, one has a brighter picture of how one used to be. Poppycock, of course, but were it true, it would show that the mind also is fixed in time.

Which it is. The mind is an organ, like any other, which develops and ages. A 40 year old brain is physically very different than a 20 year old brain, and yes, Dorothy, this DOES change the way we think.

cover your tail

Article in Forbes on Spitznagel's fund (Universa), which buys extreme out of the money options. These are cheap, so he can afford to have many of them go bad. But also, because they are cheap, when they go well, they go really, really well.

Article is here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2011/0627/money-guide-11-spitznagel-black-swan-cnbc-protect-tail_print.html

"With Santa Monica's trendy beaches a block away, Mark Spitznagel and three fellow traders spend their days placing a couple dozen bets that a disastrous event will rock equity markets or cause inflation to soar. On roughly 95 trades out of 100 they lose money"

is volume following a bull move a valid indicator?

Hulbert had an interesting assessment in the past day or so regarding volume (perhaps NYSE) in the month before and after Bull Markets peaked. He used Ned Davis definition of bull and bear markets, and defined the past 10 bear markets. The volume in the month after the Bull Market peak expanded on average to twice the volume in the month preceding the peak. The lowest ratio was 1.8 times in the month after the peak to the month before the peak.

The volume ratio around the recent peak was not any where near 2.0 or even 1.8, it was something less than 1.2 as I recall.

Using that as an indicator suggests there is yet to be new highs in equities.

--clipped from a comment by riodogg on Ritholtz's blog

who clipped it from:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-low-volume-actually-bullish-2011-06-15

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Oliver Burkemann

Journalist for the Guardian. Spent a year or more researching the self-help industry and wrote a book about it, saying that it is mostly crap. Amazing what you can publish.

Barry's wish list

http://www.amazon.com/registry/wishlist/

foobar barfoo fubar

PIBBI29EORHA

my dog has fleas

?reveal=unpurchased&filter=all&sort=priority&layout=standard&x=6&y=15

David Attenburough at the RSA

The real driver of all environmental problems is overpopulation.

The solution is to empower and educate women, and also to break the taboo regarding speaking about birth control and family planning.

Great lecture

Investing methodology

A clip from Barry Ritholtz's blog:

"I want you to look at the process, not the outcome. The suggestions of scaling in over time, looking at the 40% below enterprise value price, waiting until an upside break over the 20 day moving average (for a freefalling stock) — these are all general methods that can be as applied to any name, not just BP."

Looking deeper, at the original "when to buy it" post,

1) BP’s Stock is in Freefall: As the nearby chart shows, BP is down more than 50% from recent highs. Its 200 day moving average is up ~45% from current prices — near ~55.

The current market cap is about $100B, almost 40% below its Enterprise Value of $141.65B.

When making a trade in a stock like this, you want to do more than merely hope for a binary outcome – i.e., Make money or Lose money. The goal is to understand what the risks and rewards are, predetermine the losses/downside, and put ion the best risk/reward you can.

Research project: In distressed companies, at what levels have we seen ideal entries — in terms of price off of highs, below enterprise value, percentages below 50 and 200 day MA, dividend yields, and P/E ?

2) Is this a Trade, or an Investment? : There are different rules for Trading than Investing. you should be thinking in terms of a longer holding period — years, not months.

A universal rule: Never allow a trade to become an investment.

3) Beware the Value Trap: There can be no doubt that BP, at a 5 P/E and 10%+ dividend yield looks cheap. The question is, how much cheaper might it get? Cheap stocks can and do get cheaper, just as dear stocks can (and do) get pricier.

Suggestion: Investors should not try to bottom tick the stock.Rather than catch the falling knife, plan on adding a good chunk of the position after the stock breaks the 20 and 50 day moving averages to the upside. That way, you are averaging UP rather than DOWN.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Mix-up at the milk bank

Romulus and Remus (remus auto-corrected as genius), but getting the milk from a milk bank.

Or a (were) wolf donates milk

Baby raised on wolf milk kitchen is main idea

Thursday, June 9, 2011

guess the mashup

Fidel had an idea which went viral, using a MCMC language model to mash up different celebrity twitter feeds.

Do the same, user inputs a twitter stream, the engine mashes it with someone else, and you have to guess who (from a list).

Points and high scores.

6 degree hunting

A flow of ideas:

Map my facebook, Linked In, and collaboration networks on the world, each a different color, zoomable/scaleable etc.

Wouldn't it be cool if I could add my friend's networks, or make this as a tool that anyone could do?

Personal Network Mapper app

What if we use this to look for people, as a game? Hop around the world, bonus points if you find Osama Bin Ladin, or ?

Ok, but software will already find your shortest path for you. Then it isn't a game.

Solution: use fictional nodes. Give people clues. To find the answer you need to assemble a set of clues which you get by asking around your network.Or you can trade/buy/sell clues. You win clues by solving/finding things.

Use fictional characters. "On the internet, no-one knows you are a dog" or even better, why don't lepruchans have facebook pages?

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Scott Atran, talking to the enemy 8 Nov 2010

Briliant mind, briliant insights. Glory is the biggest motivator for young men, and the drive to right injustice. The remaining key ingredient is team spirit, the need to impress one's colleagues. This is the face of jihad, and the face of every young man on the planet. When they don't have other avenues, when they are told that jihad could work, they self-organize into little squads and do evil.
alas, I am too tired to sumarize more here. But I would like to listen to this talk again. 
 
I did, however, send this to my dad. Looking forward to his reply 

Monday, June 6, 2011

Kathryn schulz, being wrong-- 10 april 2010

Typical neurobabble, but the interesting tidbit was that the word error comes from a latin root meaning "to wander"

So I re-listened to "where do good ideas come from" by Steven Johnson (11 march 2010). This time noticing "like liquid networks" and "ideas ecosystems"  also that Snow's map was really a marketing tool; Snow had figured it out earlier.

Touch anywhere shutter release

The ergonomics of the inbuilt camera are bad, mostly because the shutter release is poorly placed and small.replace it with a huge, transparent button.

Friday, June 3, 2011

Play the horses with R

Brian Lewis and Colin Magee of http://betwise.co.uk have released an R package which interfaces with Betfair.com, allowing one to create a sports- or horse-betting bot. They also have a large database available for backtesting ideas.

The idea was presented at the R Finance 2011 conference

Thursday, June 2, 2011

re: The focus of US law enforcement

Hi, Glenn -  I ran across a distressing thought the other day:  Capitalism destroyed communism in the Soviet Union in the 1990's;
in the 2000's it's busy destroying democracy here in the US.    Hmmmm.

The focus of US law enforcement

Dear Tiger,

I shared a rant with Mike the other day, let's see if I can find it-- ah, yes,

Millions of Americans are without jobs and are having their homes foreclosed.  The U.S. is currently fighting three out-in-the-open wars (or, if you prefer, one war, one occupation, and one kinetic humanitarian intervention) and several other covert ones.  Financial and political elites are preparing to tell Americans (quite unpersuasively) that they have to sacrifice Social Security, Medicare and other entitlements because the U.S. debt is so large and unmanageable that it threatens to subvert America's superior creditworthiness.  And we're constantly told that civil liberties erosions are necessary to combat the Great Menace of Domestic Terrorism.  So what is our political class focused on, and to what are law enforcement resources being devoted? "

The answers: online pornography and online poker.

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/04/19/priorities/index.html


There you go.

His reply was
"Six times a day I stop whatever I am doing, turn to face the capitol building and shake my fist in the air at congress. "

Maybe we could turn this into a movement?

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Tired, end of the day

I need to get a haircut.


fourier transform and dirichlet process analogy

Right, but maybe more of a wavelet transform?

With the wavelets a Poisson distribution??

How to use the idea, what is the application??

What happens if we use it to solve differential equation formula for epidemic spread on a random graph?

Collaborative Consumption Rachel Botsman

Graphic source (and full-szie version): 
http://www.collaborativeconsumption.com/spreadables_downloads/CC_Spreadables_Charts/CC_Chart_The_Complete_Picture.jpg

We are moving from an ownership society to a sharing society.

Ownership is a burden, and locks us into isolation. Sharing builds community.

Three avenues:

Product Services:
  The average power drill is used for a total of 15 minutes over its entire life, but most people have one. No-one wants a drill, they want a hole.
  Ownership is a burden
  We don't want the thing, we want the service/experience it offers.
  Car/bike sharing, tool sharing, sharing sharing!

Redistribution Markets
  Turn a neighborhood's DVD collection into a library

Collaborative Lifestyle
  AirB&B, skillshare, landshare, etc
 


Reduce
Reuse
Recycle
Repair
Redistribute