Bordetella is the bacteria responsible for whooping cough, one of the most contagious directly transmitted human pathogens (according to IDH:DC). Whooping cough is causes by one of two sub-species, B. pertussis or B. parapertussis
The original bacteria, B. bronchiseptica infects a wide range of mamals, and can persist for life in the nasal cavity of its host. It is not particularily virulent nor pathenogetic. The whooping cough species, however, are both 1) strongly pathenogetic, and 2) only infect transiently (latent 7-10 days, active ~3 weeks).
The authors posit this as an example of Grenfell's (2001) hypothesis on the invasion/persistence tradeoff.
Grenfell, B. T. (2001) Dynamics and epidemiological impact of microparasites. In New challenges to health: the threat of virus infection (ed. G. l. Smith, W. L. Irving, J. W. McCauley & D. J. Rowlands), pp. 33-52. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Note that Grenfell and Bj\ornstad are collaborators
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Prabhakaran (2011) HIV haplotype inference using a constraint-based DPM
This paper extends SHORAH to better infer global haplotypes.
The work is a collaboration between Niko Beerenwinkel's group and Volker Roth's group. Roth is at the the U Basel computer science department. Other authors are Melanie Rey, Osvaldo Zagordi, Huldrych Günthard, and Karin Metzner.
the paper really isn't clear on how they move from local to global reconstruction.
They introduce the following soft constraint. If two reads are assigned to different local haplotypes (i.e. differ in their local window) then they must be assinged to different haplotypes at the global level. Such do-not-link constraints are incorporated into the prior distribution of the subequent class assignments
The work is a collaboration between Niko Beerenwinkel's group and Volker Roth's group. Roth is at the the U Basel computer science department. Other authors are Melanie Rey, Osvaldo Zagordi, Huldrych Günthard, and Karin Metzner.
the paper really isn't clear on how they move from local to global reconstruction.
They introduce the following soft constraint. If two reads are assigned to different local haplotypes (i.e. differ in their local window) then they must be assinged to different haplotypes at the global level. Such do-not-link constraints are incorporated into the prior distribution of the subequent class assignments
Sugihara: Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series
Heard about this paper from a short bio of the author, Sugihara
He, along with Robert May, coauthored several papers on chaos theory and financial markets. This lead to him being given a huge pile of money by Deutsche Bank.
Robert May ended up as Baron of Oxford, among other honors. Baron May also wrote the landmark Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford Press, 1992).
This paper presents an approach for making short-term predictions about the trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems. The method is applied to data on measles, chickenpox, and marine phytoplankton populations, to show how apparent noise associated with deterministic chaos can be distinguished from sampling error and other sources of externally induced environmental noise.
Two sources of uncertainty in forecasting natural systems: additive noise (ie measurement error) and complex dynamics. The prediction error for additive noise should be constant regardless of how many time steps ahead one is predicting. Prediction error for chaotic dynamics should increase sharply the more timesteps ahead one looks.
To create the C.D. predictor:
Lag series by E steps
To predict outcome of sample t,
find t's E+1 nearest neighbors in the lagged data
predicted outcome is exponetially weighted mean of n.neighbor's outcomes, with
weight == distance between t and the neighbor
E is related to the number of attractor by E_min < 2D +1. You can (given enough data) estimate D using i.e. the Grassberer-Procaccia algorithm. One can also test for changes in system dynamics by comparing accuracy of 1) predict second half using first half 2) randomly select training data over entire series
Possible follow-ups:
Can we describe the E-dimensional space? Do the points cluster, or are they diffuse?
Given that we can test for changes in the system dynamics, can we detect these change-points?
How does this relate to the resilience of cities paper, and its concept of slow trends pushing the city off a cliff; leading to sudden and drastic state changes
How does this relate to the nature and structure of human dynamics (thinking of the insurgency paper, which I will post soon).
He, along with Robert May, coauthored several papers on chaos theory and financial markets. This lead to him being given a huge pile of money by Deutsche Bank.
Robert May ended up as Baron of Oxford, among other honors. Baron May also wrote the landmark Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford Press, 1992).
This paper presents an approach for making short-term predictions about the trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems. The method is applied to data on measles, chickenpox, and marine phytoplankton populations, to show how apparent noise associated with deterministic chaos can be distinguished from sampling error and other sources of externally induced environmental noise.
Two sources of uncertainty in forecasting natural systems: additive noise (ie measurement error) and complex dynamics. The prediction error for additive noise should be constant regardless of how many time steps ahead one is predicting. Prediction error for chaotic dynamics should increase sharply the more timesteps ahead one looks.
To create the C.D. predictor:
Lag series by E steps
To predict outcome of sample t,
find t's E+1 nearest neighbors in the lagged data
predicted outcome is exponetially weighted mean of n.neighbor's outcomes, with
weight == distance between t and the neighbor
E is related to the number of attractor by E_min < 2D +1. You can (given enough data) estimate D using i.e. the Grassberer-Procaccia algorithm. One can also test for changes in system dynamics by comparing accuracy of 1) predict second half using first half 2) randomly select training data over entire series
Possible follow-ups:
Can we describe the E-dimensional space? Do the points cluster, or are they diffuse?
Given that we can test for changes in the system dynamics, can we detect these change-points?
How does this relate to the resilience of cities paper, and its concept of slow trends pushing the city off a cliff; leading to sudden and drastic state changes
How does this relate to the nature and structure of human dynamics (thinking of the insurgency paper, which I will post soon).
Samantha Power on a complicated hero (2008)
Samantha Power's talk.
Starts out discussing the birth in the 21st century of the "save the people" movement, like early environmentalism but dedicated to ending genocide. This movement is mostly US-based, and largely on college campuses. She then segues into a hero of hers,
Sergio Vieira de Mello.
Sergio worked tirelessly to confront evildoeers.
Samantha Power started (?) as a journalist covering the Yugoslav Wars. She then attended Harvard Law School, where a paper she wrote on genocide turned into the book The Problem from Hell, is a survey of genocide. This got her named by Time Magazine as a top thinker. She then took a position working with Senator Obama on foreign policy. She continues to be active in his administration as the Senior Director for Multilateral Affairs, as well as holding a professorship.
Starts out discussing the birth in the 21st century of the "save the people" movement, like early environmentalism but dedicated to ending genocide. This movement is mostly US-based, and largely on college campuses. She then segues into a hero of hers,
Sergio Vieira de Mello.
Sergio worked tirelessly to confront evildoeers.
Samantha Power started (?) as a journalist covering the Yugoslav Wars. She then attended Harvard Law School, where a paper she wrote on genocide turned into the book The Problem from Hell, is a survey of genocide. This got her named by Time Magazine as a top thinker. She then took a position working with Senator Obama on foreign policy. She continues to be active in his administration as the Senior Director for Multilateral Affairs, as well as holding a professorship.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
cuevana
http://www.cuevana.tv/peliculas/mejorpuntuadas/
For movies. Requires a special plug-in. Not sure if I trust the plug-in
For movies. Requires a special plug-in. Not sure if I trust the plug-in
Immorality of debt
More inspiration for the paper I wish I had time to write on this!!
David Graeber interview
First comes gift-giving (which creates reciprical obligation). This becomes encoded in debt, which leads to money. Barter only comes later.
The old myth is that barter came first, then money. Rebuttal: "Think about what they’re saying here – basically: that a bunch of Neolithic farmers in a village somewhere will be engaging in transactions only through the spot trade."
David Graeber interview
First comes gift-giving (which creates reciprical obligation). This becomes encoded in debt, which leads to money. Barter only comes later.
The old myth is that barter came first, then money. Rebuttal: "Think about what they’re saying here – basically: that a bunch of Neolithic farmers in a village somewhere will be engaging in transactions only through the spot trade."
PW Singer on military robots and the future of war
PW Singer
Robots are transforming war.
The US has a lead, but not a strong one. Robot building is still a DIY art with low barriers to entry.
Robots are transforming war.
The US has a lead, but not a strong one. Robot building is still a DIY art with low barriers to entry.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran's future
Bruce Bueno
Dr. de Mequita uses game theory to model all the parties in a negotiation and finds equilibrium points. He can thus predict, with high accuracy, what the eventual settlement will be based on known data at the start.
http://politics.as.nyu.edu/object/brucebuenodemesquita.html
Dr. de Mequita uses game theory to model all the parties in a negotiation and finds equilibrium points. He can thus predict, with high accuracy, what the eventual settlement will be based on known data at the start.
http://politics.as.nyu.edu/object/brucebuenodemesquita.html
Sean Gourley on the mathematics of war
Sean Gourley
Dr. Gourley's team wrote a Nature paper defining how to measure an insurgency.
“Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency“
The size distributions of casualties both in whole wars from 1816 to 1980 and terrorist attacks have separately been shown to follow approximate power-law distributions6, 7, 9, 10. However, the possibility of universal patterns ranging across wars in the size distribution or timing of within-conflict events has barely been explored. Here we show that the sizes and timing of violent events within different insurgent conflicts exhibit remarkable similarities. We propose a unified model of human insurgency that reproduces these commonalities, and explains conflict-specific variations quantitatively in terms of underlying rules of engagement. Our model treats each insurgent population as an ecology of dynamically evolving, self-organized groups following common decision-making processes
See also http://mathematicsofwar.com/
I want to link his evolution of insurgency models to my own viral evolution work. He specifically discusses that when an insurgent group breaks up, the parts don't dissapear, they re-associate with remaining groups-- showing preferential attachment. Also, strongest groups grow fastest.
Dr. Gourley's team wrote a Nature paper defining how to measure an insurgency.
“Common Ecology Quantifies Human Insurgency“
The size distributions of casualties both in whole wars from 1816 to 1980 and terrorist attacks have separately been shown to follow approximate power-law distributions6, 7, 9, 10. However, the possibility of universal patterns ranging across wars in the size distribution or timing of within-conflict events has barely been explored. Here we show that the sizes and timing of violent events within different insurgent conflicts exhibit remarkable similarities. We propose a unified model of human insurgency that reproduces these commonalities, and explains conflict-specific variations quantitatively in terms of underlying rules of engagement. Our model treats each insurgent population as an ecology of dynamically evolving, self-organized groups following common decision-making processes
See also http://mathematicsofwar.com/
I want to link his evolution of insurgency models to my own viral evolution work. He specifically discusses that when an insurgent group breaks up, the parts don't dissapear, they re-associate with remaining groups-- showing preferential attachment. Also, strongest groups grow fastest.
Parag Khanna maps the future of countries
Parag Khanna
Damn, TED is frustrating. Not easy to find the dates/conferences for talks. Just the title.
Parag draws maps which focus on infrastructure, not boundaries. Good infrastructure determines the balance of power and makes for good neighbors.
Example: Kurds would need good relations with their neighbors to be able to get their oil to a port so they could sell it.
Example: China is conquering the world. They have "invaded" Russia-- by moving farmers into Siberia, leasing the land. Etc. Chinese is becoming a language of power brokers.
Damn, TED is frustrating. Not easy to find the dates/conferences for talks. Just the title.
Parag draws maps which focus on infrastructure, not boundaries. Good infrastructure determines the balance of power and makes for good neighbors.
Example: Kurds would need good relations with their neighbors to be able to get their oil to a port so they could sell it.
Example: China is conquering the world. They have "invaded" Russia-- by moving farmers into Siberia, leasing the land. Etc. Chinese is becoming a language of power brokers.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Dean Kamen: The emotion behind invention
Dean Kamen talks about his motivation in building robotic arms/limbs for soldiers injured in war.
DEar Kamen
Very passionate. He sees the commitment that the soldiers have, and wants to repay it. As you see in the title, the talk is low on technology and high on helping people.
He wants to get it to the point where his arms are better than nature.
DEar Kamen
Very passionate. He sees the commitment that the soldiers have, and wants to repay it. As you see in the title, the talk is low on technology and high on helping people.
He wants to get it to the point where his arms are better than nature.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Quote from Ritholtz
I lifted it straight from his blog, because he phrased it so well:
source is here: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/waiting-for-the-cavalry/
The US is suffering from a long list of serious — but not unsolvable — problems that require intelligent, mature and potentially painful decisions
Can the US resolve these issues?
1) An excess credit problem, left over from the 2000s Housing boom and credit bubble — being solved v e r y s l o w l y through deleveraging and passage of time;
2) Slowing economy and high unemployment (including increasing High School drop out rates creating a structural employment problem);
3) Crumbling infrastructure: Electric Grid, Bridges, Tunnels, Roads, Naval Ports, Airports;
4) Medical Costs that are double the rest of the industrialized world’s yet produces worse results.
5) Systemic deficits caused by unfunded tax cuts, unfunded entitlements, and a military bigger than the next 20 countries combined, (plus a lack of fiscal discipline);
6) A wholly dysfunctional electoral process, including corporate control of what was once a democratically elected legislative branch;
7) Increasing wealth and income inequality (Historically not a long term positive for social unrest and political legitimacy)
8) An overt hostility to empiricism and science (which helped create most of our wealth) and an embracing of “magical thinking”
9) An intellectually bankrupt political class married to outmoded, disproven, fantasy based economic ideas.
Note that the last of these is directly responsible for much of the prior 8 problems.
We need to distinguish between immediate concerns — market crashes, unemployment, re-election — with the longer term structural problems facing the US.
The next 10 years can either be the end of the empire or a new healthier phase. The US has managed to reinvent itself every few generations. Its time for another such moment of reflection and redirection…
source is here: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/waiting-for-the-cavalry/
The US is suffering from a long list of serious — but not unsolvable — problems that require intelligent, mature and potentially painful decisions
Can the US resolve these issues?
1) An excess credit problem, left over from the 2000s Housing boom and credit bubble — being solved v e r y s l o w l y through deleveraging and passage of time;
2) Slowing economy and high unemployment (including increasing High School drop out rates creating a structural employment problem);
3) Crumbling infrastructure: Electric Grid, Bridges, Tunnels, Roads, Naval Ports, Airports;
4) Medical Costs that are double the rest of the industrialized world’s yet produces worse results.
5) Systemic deficits caused by unfunded tax cuts, unfunded entitlements, and a military bigger than the next 20 countries combined, (plus a lack of fiscal discipline);
6) A wholly dysfunctional electoral process, including corporate control of what was once a democratically elected legislative branch;
7) Increasing wealth and income inequality (Historically not a long term positive for social unrest and political legitimacy)
8) An overt hostility to empiricism and science (which helped create most of our wealth) and an embracing of “magical thinking”
9) An intellectually bankrupt political class married to outmoded, disproven, fantasy based economic ideas.
Note that the last of these is directly responsible for much of the prior 8 problems.
We need to distinguish between immediate concerns — market crashes, unemployment, re-election — with the longer term structural problems facing the US.
The next 10 years can either be the end of the empire or a new healthier phase. The US has managed to reinvent itself every few generations. Its time for another such moment of reflection and redirection…
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Protein Folding I Ching
Protein folds are divided into 7 families. Each protien will have several domains, each of which falls into one of these families.
http://scop.mrc-lmb.cam.ac.uk/scop/count.html#scop-1.75
Make an I Ching which uses two adjacent domains.
Blurb for the book/app:
DNA codes proteins. Protiens, then, determine everything with respect to life. This knowledge, while new to western science, is actually quite old. We recently found an ancient manuscript, from the
mountains, written in a Vedic script. Translation showed that it associated each combination of protein fold families with a particluar fortune. We are thus proud to present the Protein Folding I Ching.
http://scop.mrc-lmb.cam.ac.uk/scop/count.html#scop-1.75
Make an I Ching which uses two adjacent domains.
Blurb for the book/app:
DNA codes proteins. Protiens, then, determine everything with respect to life. This knowledge, while new to western science, is actually quite old. We recently found an ancient manuscript, from the
mountains, written in a Vedic script. Translation showed that it associated each combination of protein fold families with a particluar fortune. We are thus proud to present the Protein Folding I Ching.
HMM likelihood for haplotype reconstruction
Prabhav suggested using a HMM to describe the likelihood of an observed viral sequence. This allows for dependence between the states, and also for, i.e., increased probability of error after repeats.
Google: Utilitarian or media company?
Excerts from Ben Elowitz's article on CNN Money
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/24/google%E2%80%99s-nagging-media-problem/
Google built itself on utilitarianism-- provide a quick, clean route from question to answer. Google is wedded to the algorithm
Media is build on immersing people in a rich and rewarding environment to which they want to return, where they linger.
Value the human element, connection, experience.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/24/google%E2%80%99s-nagging-media-problem/
Google built itself on utilitarianism-- provide a quick, clean route from question to answer. Google is wedded to the algorithm
Media is build on immersing people in a rich and rewarding environment to which they want to return, where they linger.
Value the human element, connection, experience.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
William Ury: The walk from "no" to "yes"
William Ury: The walk from "no" to "yes" http://www.ted.com/talks/william_ury.html
Walking together unites us.
He created a path which follows the journey of Abraham. The story of Abraham is the unifying story of all Middle-eastern cultures. When people walk the path, they remember what unites them. This ends the conflict.
It also brings tourists to rural villages, bringing money and stories.
Walking together unites us.
He created a path which follows the journey of Abraham. The story of Abraham is the unifying story of all Middle-eastern cultures. When people walk the path, they remember what unites them. This ends the conflict.
It also brings tourists to rural villages, bringing money and stories.
tribal leadership
Another management consultant bullshit theory. Ok, the guy is serious, and has a good intuition, but in the end it is only one intuition and not the be-end all he presents it as. Social science.
So you have to have a hierarchy. Your clients are, of course, near the top, and you are going to help them reach the top. That is why they pay you the big bucks. No, wait, actually they are at the top, and you are confirming their place. THAT is why they pay you the big bucks.
Here we go, lowest to highest:
1) Life sucks
2) My life sucks (but other people have good lives)
3) I am great (and you are not)
4) We are great
5) Life is great. (only 2%, naturally)
Along with this comes the idea that people only hear messages directed at their level or an adjoining level. So you try to push everyone up a level.
So you have to have a hierarchy. Your clients are, of course, near the top, and you are going to help them reach the top. That is why they pay you the big bucks. No, wait, actually they are at the top, and you are confirming their place. THAT is why they pay you the big bucks.
Here we go, lowest to highest:
1) Life sucks
2) My life sucks (but other people have good lives)
3) I am great (and you are not)
4) We are great
5) Life is great. (only 2%, naturally)
Along with this comes the idea that people only hear messages directed at their level or an adjoining level. So you try to push everyone up a level.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Simon Sinek: How great leaders inspire action (TED 2009)
This guy has mastered the art of "repeat your thesis often enough and it becomes true". He says it at least one time with each example he gives, as though the example actually proves what he is saying.
So what is he saying? That an organization can be thought of as three concentric circles. The outside is what it does, the middle is how it does it, and the center is why. The thesis is that great leaders lead by communicating the why. This attracts like-minded individuals.
Apple-- "We challenge the status quo"
how do they do this? By building computers with an emphasis on design.
But it is the "why" which sets the company apart.
So what is he saying? That an organization can be thought of as three concentric circles. The outside is what it does, the middle is how it does it, and the center is why. The thesis is that great leaders lead by communicating the why. This attracts like-minded individuals.
Apple-- "We challenge the status quo"
how do they do this? By building computers with an emphasis on design.
But it is the "why" which sets the company apart.
Police states
Two interesting and related articles from the WSJ
As Criminal Laws Proliferate, More Are Ensnared
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703749504576172714184601654.html
the number of people sentenced to federal prison has risen nearly threefold over the past 30 years to 83,000 annually. The U.S. population grew only about 36% in that period. The total federal prison population, over 200,000, grew more than eightfold—twice the growth rate of the state prison population, now at 2 million, according the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics
Federal Asset Seizures Rise, Netting Innocent With Guilty
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903480904576512253265073870.html
Last year (2010), forfeiture programs confiscated homes, cars, boats and cash in more than 15,000 cases. The total take topped $2.5 billion, more than doubling in five years, Justice Department statistics show.
As Criminal Laws Proliferate, More Are Ensnared
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703749504576172714184601654.html
the number of people sentenced to federal prison has risen nearly threefold over the past 30 years to 83,000 annually. The U.S. population grew only about 36% in that period. The total federal prison population, over 200,000, grew more than eightfold—twice the growth rate of the state prison population, now at 2 million, according the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics
Federal Asset Seizures Rise, Netting Innocent With Guilty
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903480904576512253265073870.html
Last year (2010), forfeiture programs confiscated homes, cars, boats and cash in more than 15,000 cases. The total take topped $2.5 billion, more than doubling in five years, Justice Department statistics show.
Urban resiliance
My brother Mike brought this topic up; we have been email on how to measure this quantity for several weeks. My best conclusion was that cities are social constructs, so resiliance is best measured in terms of the community spirit of a place. As long as the spirit survives, the city will be rebuilt.
Turns out "urban resiliance" is its own scientific discipline, branching off from ecology (and specifically the study of ecosystem resiliance). Stockholm University has a center dedicated to the topic.
"Urban Transitions: on urban resilience and human-dominated ecosystems" by Ernstson et al (2010, AMBIO) had some interesting notes.
Cities exist as part of networks involving other cities, linked by dynamic social and technical networks that sustain energy, matter, and information transfer.
He suggests we continue our move from an industrial to a knowledge to an ecological economy. In the ecological economy, competiveness also lies in how effectively one uses/supports the generation of ecosystem services.
Another new buzzword: Panarchy, the title of a book by GUnderson and Holling (2002). A panarchy replaces a hierarchy by allowing the different processes to operate on different time scales. Interactions across these different time scales then become of interest
Looks like wikipedia gives it an older origin and broader meaning.
I should perhaps also read "Superlinear scaling for innovation in cities", Arbesman et al 2009 Physical Review E 79
Turns out "urban resiliance" is its own scientific discipline, branching off from ecology (and specifically the study of ecosystem resiliance). Stockholm University has a center dedicated to the topic.
"Urban Transitions: on urban resilience and human-dominated ecosystems" by Ernstson et al (2010, AMBIO) had some interesting notes.
Cities exist as part of networks involving other cities, linked by dynamic social and technical networks that sustain energy, matter, and information transfer.
He suggests we continue our move from an industrial to a knowledge to an ecological economy. In the ecological economy, competiveness also lies in how effectively one uses/supports the generation of ecosystem services.
Another new buzzword: Panarchy, the title of a book by GUnderson and Holling (2002). A panarchy replaces a hierarchy by allowing the different processes to operate on different time scales. Interactions across these different time scales then become of interest
Looks like wikipedia gives it an older origin and broader meaning.
I should perhaps also read "Superlinear scaling for innovation in cities", Arbesman et al 2009 Physical Review E 79
Gone with the wind
Maybe I should read this book. A great example of what happens when the world turns upside down, as it does every generation or so.
It was written by Margaret Mitchel in the roaring 20's, but not published until 1936. She herself had little belief in the work.
Ritholtz put up a summary of "Pander to Power by Frederick Sheehan, with the thesis that Greenspan sold out America to Wall Street.
Based on the summary, much of the book quotes from Gone with the Wind, applying Rhett Butler's advice to today's world.
Thesis: when the world turns over, there is no such thing as a risk-free investment, or the traditional pyramid of risk (cash, bonds, stocks, ...).
The Euro is falling. "Estimates of €1 trillion to save the Italian and Spanish banking systems are common, but, no one knows the side effects beforehand." Talk about money printing!
We face the possibility of European capital controls to stop people moving their money offshore. Too bad, as the Swiss Franc and gold look pretty attractive.
Regarding money transfers:
Rhett was not forthcoming: “I couldn’t give [you money] if I wanted to. I haven’t a cent on me. Not a dollar in Atlanta. I have some money, but not here. And I’m not saying where it is or how much. But if I tried to draw a draft on it, the Yankees would be on me like a duck on a June bug…”
It was written by Margaret Mitchel in the roaring 20's, but not published until 1936. She herself had little belief in the work.
Ritholtz put up a summary of "Pander to Power by Frederick Sheehan, with the thesis that Greenspan sold out America to Wall Street.
Based on the summary, much of the book quotes from Gone with the Wind, applying Rhett Butler's advice to today's world.
Thesis: when the world turns over, there is no such thing as a risk-free investment, or the traditional pyramid of risk (cash, bonds, stocks, ...).
The Euro is falling. "Estimates of €1 trillion to save the Italian and Spanish banking systems are common, but, no one knows the side effects beforehand." Talk about money printing!
We face the possibility of European capital controls to stop people moving their money offshore. Too bad, as the Swiss Franc and gold look pretty attractive.
Regarding money transfers:
Rhett was not forthcoming: “I couldn’t give [you money] if I wanted to. I haven’t a cent on me. Not a dollar in Atlanta. I have some money, but not here. And I’m not saying where it is or how much. But if I tried to draw a draft on it, the Yankees would be on me like a duck on a June bug…”
Nato alphabet
Alpha
Bravo! to Charlie, who is in a Delta shaped arena. The applause Echos as he dances the Foxtrot.
Afterwards, he takes his date, in his VW Golf, and drives to a Hotel (in India).
Her name is Juliett. She looks in the mirror, to she if she has lost a Kilo on the new Lima bean diet. It is all the rage, ever since Dr. Mike published it last November.
He won an Oscar for the infomercial. At the ceremony, he thanked his Pappa, back in Quebec. Pappa was also a bit of a Romeo, known throughout the Sierra for dancing Tango in a fancy Uniform, along with his buddy Victor, and drinking huge amounts of Canadian Whiskey as they X-rayed the Yankee girls.
ZULU
Bravo! to Charlie, who is in a Delta shaped arena. The applause Echos as he dances the Foxtrot.
Afterwards, he takes his date, in his VW Golf, and drives to a Hotel (in India).
Her name is Juliett. She looks in the mirror, to she if she has lost a Kilo on the new Lima bean diet. It is all the rage, ever since Dr. Mike published it last November.
He won an Oscar for the infomercial. At the ceremony, he thanked his Pappa, back in Quebec. Pappa was also a bit of a Romeo, known throughout the Sierra for dancing Tango in a fancy Uniform, along with his buddy Victor, and drinking huge amounts of Canadian Whiskey as they X-rayed the Yankee girls.
ZULU
Itay Talgam, "Lead like the great conductors", TED Global 2009
Leadership as telling stories.
But whose story? The composer's? the conductor's? the ochestra's? the audience's?
But the members of the ochestra are themselves highly trained and creative people. They have their own individual stories, both at this point in time, and their long-term development. Create space for them to tell their story.
Talk is here: Itay Talgam
But whose story? The composer's? the conductor's? the ochestra's? the audience's?
But the members of the ochestra are themselves highly trained and creative people. They have their own individual stories, both at this point in time, and their long-term development. Create space for them to tell their story.
Talk is here: Itay Talgam
Monday, August 22, 2011
Devdutt Pattanaik-- East vs West and the myths which mystify
Two Indian gods, brothers, decide to race around the world, three times. The first mounts his peacock, and soars over mountains, plains, and oceans, one time, two times, three times. The other walks around the yard three times, and says "I win".
"How can that be?" asks the first.
"Oh," says the second, "You went around the world, I went around my world."
Great story.
He then goes on to a confrontation between Alexander the Great and a Janist monk. Both think the other fools, Alexander for wanting to conquer the world (to what use? This is one life out of infinite, the striving only causes hurt), the monk for wasting a life doing nothing (to what use? This is one life, the only one, and you should use it to accomplish all that is possible).
Devdutt argues that both positions are relevant and equally valid. I call bullshit on that. Until many people have many and firm recollections of previous/future lives, it is a dangerously flawed assumption.
Oh, but it would be nice if we did. At the gym yesterday, Jeannot was watching Custer's last stand. I would have liked to have been there, to have experienced it. But not at the cost of my life, only if I could reincarnate away.
On the other hand, what would become of war if everyone thought there was no long-term downside, that the pain and death were temporary inconveniences in an infinite experience?
"How can that be?" asks the first.
"Oh," says the second, "You went around the world, I went around my world."
Great story.
He then goes on to a confrontation between Alexander the Great and a Janist monk. Both think the other fools, Alexander for wanting to conquer the world (to what use? This is one life out of infinite, the striving only causes hurt), the monk for wasting a life doing nothing (to what use? This is one life, the only one, and you should use it to accomplish all that is possible).
Devdutt argues that both positions are relevant and equally valid. I call bullshit on that. Until many people have many and firm recollections of previous/future lives, it is a dangerously flawed assumption.
Oh, but it would be nice if we did. At the gym yesterday, Jeannot was watching Custer's last stand. I would have liked to have been there, to have experienced it. But not at the cost of my life, only if I could reincarnate away.
On the other hand, what would become of war if everyone thought there was no long-term downside, that the pain and death were temporary inconveniences in an infinite experience?
Computer as an extension of the mind
If the computer is an extension of your mind, as it is, then it is an extension only of the left hemisphere.
Or is this true? It was in the early days, when computers were used by engineers to engineer things.
Then is a network of computers a society, a left-brain society?
And what about the great chatter that is facebook, youtube, etc?
On facebook, everyone is talking but few are listening. Conversations are one-way comments on feed items. The stream of conciousness of the human race.
Or at least the rich ones.
Or is this true? It was in the early days, when computers were used by engineers to engineer things.
Then is a network of computers a society, a left-brain society?
And what about the great chatter that is facebook, youtube, etc?
On facebook, everyone is talking but few are listening. Conversations are one-way comments on feed items. The stream of conciousness of the human race.
Or at least the rich ones.
Nuance based search FOUND!
Yes! I had saved the idea as a text file on my desktop. Here it is:
Nuance or Overview
The web has become our primary source of information. And search engines have become the curator/gate to this information. This is great when our motivations align with the search engine, and not so great otherwise. LP of Google defines the ultimate search as one which returns 1 result, the one you are looking for. Many times, however, I am not looking for one result. Rather, I want an overview on a situation, or background information on a topic. This current work describes an architecture for such a tool.
* what about mobile? How does this change the perception.
Use cases:
1) Greek/EU debt. Relevant information could include
2) Researching an investment/stock.
3) State of the art in molecular biology.
4)
Archetecture:
find everything relevant to the topic.
Sort by theme/relevance/filter bubble
Present as a tree, with a history tree (not just forward/backward)
Improvements:
Named filter bubbles-- how would celeb X view the world?
Allow people to volunteer to share their bubble!
Auto-blogging, with immediate relevance to what the person was searching for!
Number of top-level branches in the tree?
Nuance or Overview
The web has become our primary source of information. And search engines have become the curator/gate to this information. This is great when our motivations align with the search engine, and not so great otherwise. LP of Google defines the ultimate search as one which returns 1 result, the one you are looking for. Many times, however, I am not looking for one result. Rather, I want an overview on a situation, or background information on a topic. This current work describes an architecture for such a tool.
* what about mobile? How does this change the perception.
Use cases:
1) Greek/EU debt. Relevant information could include
2) Researching an investment/stock.
3) State of the art in molecular biology.
4)
Archetecture:
find everything relevant to the topic.
Sort by theme/relevance/filter bubble
Present as a tree, with a history tree (not just forward/backward)
Improvements:
Named filter bubbles-- how would celeb X view the world?
Allow people to volunteer to share their bubble!
Auto-blogging, with immediate relevance to what the person was searching for!
Number of top-level branches in the tree?
Friday, August 19, 2011
biclustering
Useful for biological systems, as it can identify modules of cells/genes/whatever
cMonkey is one promising algorithm
cmonkey
at ISMB, someone presented on
multi-species c-monkey
pmed link
Abstract:
We describe an algorithm, multi-species cMonkey, for the simultaneous biclustering of heterogeneous multiple-species data collections and apply the algorithm to a group of bacteria containing Bacillus subtilis, Bacillus anthracis, and Listeria monocytogenes. The algorithm reveals evolutionary insights into the surprisingly high degree of conservation of regulatory modules across these three species and allows data and insights from well-studied organisms to complement the analysis of related but less well studied organisms.
cMonkey is one promising algorithm
cmonkey
at ISMB, someone presented on
multi-species c-monkey
pmed link
Abstract:
We describe an algorithm, multi-species cMonkey, for the simultaneous biclustering of heterogeneous multiple-species data collections and apply the algorithm to a group of bacteria containing Bacillus subtilis, Bacillus anthracis, and Listeria monocytogenes. The algorithm reveals evolutionary insights into the surprisingly high degree of conservation of regulatory modules across these three species and allows data and insights from well-studied organisms to complement the analysis of related but less well studied organisms.
Morality Trainer App
An app with Ben Franklin's system.
Rows are an ordered list of moral desirata.
Columns are the days of the week.
You put a mark in each block for each item which you succeeded in that day.
It starts clear each week.
Track you stats, how you are improving from week to week, over time, etc
Rows are an ordered list of moral desirata.
Columns are the days of the week.
You put a mark in each block for each item which you succeeded in that day.
It starts clear each week.
Track you stats, how you are improving from week to week, over time, etc
Nuance based search
That's all I have left. Just this phrase, which meant something to me when I wrote it down. I am sure it was genius
David Blaine: How I held my breath for 17 minutes
Answer: lots of training and you breath pure oxygen for an hour ahead of time.
He is a professional stunt/magician. Great presenter.
Fasted for 44 days, results written in New England Journal of Medicine.
A fun line:
"So I did what anyone else would do (pause). Went down to their offices and started doing card tricks"
The breath-hold was on Oprah. It did not go as planned, heart rate at 120+ instead of his target of 32. At the 8 minute mark he was sure he would not beat the record of 16.30 minutes. But he realized if he came out of the tank then, he would still be on Oprah, and the show would be about how depressed he was. Better to stay in the tank until he blacked out, so even though he would not reach his goal, he would be whisked away under medical care and not have to talk to O about it for 45 minutes.
He made his goal
He is a professional stunt/magician. Great presenter.
Fasted for 44 days, results written in New England Journal of Medicine.
A fun line:
"So I did what anyone else would do (pause). Went down to their offices and started doing card tricks"
The breath-hold was on Oprah. It did not go as planned, heart rate at 120+ instead of his target of 32. At the 8 minute mark he was sure he would not beat the record of 16.30 minutes. But he realized if he came out of the tank then, he would still be on Oprah, and the show would be about how depressed he was. Better to stay in the tank until he blacked out, so even though he would not reach his goal, he would be whisked away under medical care and not have to talk to O about it for 45 minutes.
He made his goal
Daniel Tammet: Savant (2011)
He is a functioning savant. His speach is slow and measured which I very much enjoyed while blasting down the autobahn, but found boring on the second viewing.
Synesthesia must be nice.
He claims that how we percieve things influences how we learn and what we know.
Synesthesia must be nice.
He claims that how we percieve things influences how we learn and what we know.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Rock Paper Scisors strategy
The game is played by humans, and thus not at all random.
1) Rock is for rookies. Most rookies begin by playing rock.
2) if the opponent makes the same move twice in a row, they almost certainly won't do it again.
3a) Players often imitate their opponents last move. Mimicry is powerful.
3b) When discussing a game, gesutre repeatedly with the move you want them to play first. Mimicry is powerful
4) If someone loses a round, they often play the move which would have won the last round.
5) Announce your next move (verbally) before hand. Your opponent will think you are bluffing.
Now if I was serious about this, I might develop some sequences of winning moves.
On the other hand, I tend to do pretty well at the game by running on intuition. This is the kind of thing which, when I instead turn to "logic/reason", I end up killing my edge.
1) Rock is for rookies. Most rookies begin by playing rock.
2) if the opponent makes the same move twice in a row, they almost certainly won't do it again.
3a) Players often imitate their opponents last move. Mimicry is powerful.
3b) When discussing a game, gesutre repeatedly with the move you want them to play first. Mimicry is powerful
4) If someone loses a round, they often play the move which would have won the last round.
5) Announce your next move (verbally) before hand. Your opponent will think you are bluffing.
Now if I was serious about this, I might develop some sequences of winning moves.
On the other hand, I tend to do pretty well at the game by running on intuition. This is the kind of thing which, when I instead turn to "logic/reason", I end up killing my edge.
Victorian Internet-- Tom Standage
An amazingly thin and vapid book. So little deep thought in so many pages! Breezed through it.
My take: Mr. Standage read a number of publications contemporary to the beginning of the telegraph, took some notes, and called it a book.
I must get into this business.
Key insights: Lord Kelvin made his fortune and his name and his title by developing a working bit of the telegraph system. Forget what it was, probably undersea cables.
The telegraph is what changed the word. Everything since (telephone, internet, social media) is an evolution, not a revolution.
My book idea:
Breakthrough: The creative spark in life and culture.
My take: Mr. Standage read a number of publications contemporary to the beginning of the telegraph, took some notes, and called it a book.
I must get into this business.
Key insights: Lord Kelvin made his fortune and his name and his title by developing a working bit of the telegraph system. Forget what it was, probably undersea cables.
The telegraph is what changed the word. Everything since (telephone, internet, social media) is an evolution, not a revolution.
My book idea:
Breakthrough: The creative spark in life and culture.
Paul Romer: World's first charter city TED2011
Honduras is looking at a way to allow its people, or those who want to, to "go to the USA" without leaving Honduras.
The wealth produced by a city is far greater than the cost of building one.
Both Singapore and South Korea are in the city building business. They can put up a full city in a few years, once regulatory approval is granted.
A charter city is a special administrative zone whose rules/laws are determined by the charter. They might operate under US law, though not, perhaps, US jurisdiction.
The wealth produced by a city is far greater than the cost of building one.
Both Singapore and South Korea are in the city building business. They can put up a full city in a few years, once regulatory approval is granted.
A charter city is a special administrative zone whose rules/laws are determined by the charter. They might operate under US law, though not, perhaps, US jurisdiction.
Alice Dregger-- anatomy destiny
She works with people whose anatomy defies our standard classes, the odd sex types (male body with ovaries, etc), co-joined twins, etc.
The founding fathers, as part of the enlightenment, looked to science for guidance. They speak of a nature of God, looking for holy principles in the world, not in scriptures.
The founding fathers, as part of the enlightenment, looked to science for guidance. They speak of a nature of God, looking for holy principles in the world, not in scriptures.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
A new morality for a new age
One reflection from all the RSA talks: We need a new morality.
Moral history: in the tribal age, it is loyalty to the tribe. People who are not in the tribe have no rights/standing, except to the extent that their tribe can help/hurt ours.
With the founding of cities, this no longer works. Hence the need for a new ethic. The writings of Paul are one example of extending tribal ethics to urban ethics.
Next we add concepts like rule of law
What do we need to add to move it to a global level? What duty/resposibility/rights does one have in a global setting? What about given the greatly increased population size, and concordant environmental costs?
I do notice that people become more passive and less aggressive; indeed this is necessary.
Moral history: in the tribal age, it is loyalty to the tribe. People who are not in the tribe have no rights/standing, except to the extent that their tribe can help/hurt ours.
With the founding of cities, this no longer works. Hence the need for a new ethic. The writings of Paul are one example of extending tribal ethics to urban ethics.
Next we add concepts like rule of law
What do we need to add to move it to a global level? What duty/resposibility/rights does one have in a global setting? What about given the greatly increased population size, and concordant environmental costs?
I do notice that people become more passive and less aggressive; indeed this is necessary.
language hacking
We start with a website:
Fluentin3months
His advice:
Start speaking the language right away.
Find a list of cognates (words which overlap with a language you already know).
Build vocab using cognates, image association, and spaced repetition
Learn useful phrases
Learn grammar last
Finally a link to links: blogs
Fluentin3months
His advice:
Start speaking the language right away.
Find a list of cognates (words which overlap with a language you already know).
Build vocab using cognates, image association, and spaced repetition
Learn useful phrases
Learn grammar last
Finally a link to links: blogs
Cesar Hildago
does interesting work with networks
Homepage
Including economic networks (how different products are connected)
Homepage
Including economic networks (how different products are connected)
IDCC, what I did wrong
IDCC is valuable because they hold a number (8000) important wireless patients. I knew this months ago, bought the stock, and sold it when it went nowhere.
Then came the Google vs Apple/Microsof/RIM purchase of Nortel. This clearly indicated a will to buy patient portfolios.
Several weeks later, IDCC made a huge price jump on rumours of a buyout.
Then came the Google vs Apple/Microsof/RIM purchase of Nortel. This clearly indicated a will to buy patient portfolios.
Several weeks later, IDCC made a huge price jump on rumours of a buyout.
investing in gold
Gold is a hedge, which suggests it should be 10-15% of the portfolio.
You can buy ounces of gold above ground (bullion) or below ground (mining companies). Gold stocks normally show 2-3x leverage on any move in bullion, up or down, suggesting that they are lagging.
GDX is the mining ETF.
ETFs may be better than individual companies, as each company has its own dynamic. Still, two possibilities are
Newcrest Mining PINK:NCMGY
Goldcorp NYSE:GG
You can buy ounces of gold above ground (bullion) or below ground (mining companies). Gold stocks normally show 2-3x leverage on any move in bullion, up or down, suggesting that they are lagging.
GDX is the mining ETF.
ETFs may be better than individual companies, as each company has its own dynamic. Still, two possibilities are
Newcrest Mining PINK:NCMGY
Goldcorp NYSE:GG
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Simon Mainwaring "We first capitalism" 14 july 2011
Corporations as the third force for social change.
A company should, out of self interest, be interested in maintaining the society in which it operates.
Engagement.
Examples: Cocacola shipping vaccines in the dead spaces in their cola crates.
Corporations using their expertese (supply chain, logistics, etc) to support society.
A hero company: patagonia
A company should, out of self interest, be interested in maintaining the society in which it operates.
Engagement.
Examples: Cocacola shipping vaccines in the dead spaces in their cola crates.
Corporations using their expertese (supply chain, logistics, etc) to support society.
A hero company: patagonia
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Educational videos
Some resources:
engineerguy.com
pbs.org/teachers
youtube.com/edu
and, of course, khan academy
engineerguy.com
pbs.org/teachers
youtube.com/edu
and, of course, khan academy
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