Friday, June 17, 2011

is volume following a bull move a valid indicator?

Hulbert had an interesting assessment in the past day or so regarding volume (perhaps NYSE) in the month before and after Bull Markets peaked. He used Ned Davis definition of bull and bear markets, and defined the past 10 bear markets. The volume in the month after the Bull Market peak expanded on average to twice the volume in the month preceding the peak. The lowest ratio was 1.8 times in the month after the peak to the month before the peak.

The volume ratio around the recent peak was not any where near 2.0 or even 1.8, it was something less than 1.2 as I recall.

Using that as an indicator suggests there is yet to be new highs in equities.

--clipped from a comment by riodogg on Ritholtz's blog

who clipped it from:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-low-volume-actually-bullish-2011-06-15

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