By Roy M Anderson and Robert M May, 1991
Death from epidemic disease far overwhelms death from war, up until the middle of the 20th century.
Smallpox won the war between the Spanish and the Aztecs.
Life expectancy rose from 25-30 years in 1700 to70-75 years in 1970 mainly from a decline in deaths induced by directly transmitted viral and bacterial infections.
Combination of better hygiene/nutrition and decreased pathogenicities of many childhood infections. Yet the frequency and magnitude of epidemics increased during the 18th and 19th centuries.
"a great deal of recent mathematical epidemiology has taken flight from its original moorings, and soars free from the constraints of data or relevance." -p9.
Simple models so we do not get lost in a snowstorm of parameters.
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