Posting this because the idea has come up 2 or 3 times in the last few days.
People are bad at predicting the future. Even experts.
From Freakenomics blog:
It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brain, which has become trained to ignore the record of those who make them. In this hour of Freakonomics Radio, we’ll dream of the day when bad predictors pay.
hour long vid here:
http://freakonomicsradio.com/hour-long-special-the-folly-of-prediction.html
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